placing 6/8 vs pass line bets--a math based revisit

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by whodat, Jul 11, 2018.

  1. whodat, Jul 11, 2018

    whodat

    whodat Member

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    Everyone knows that the HE for a pass line bet is 1.41 and for placing the 6/8 is 1.52. What is not realized is that the above numbers take into account the resolution of the bet, i.e. either the number is rolled or the 7 is rolled. There is also a HE that is calculated per roll. For the PL, it is 0.42 and for the 6/8 it is 0.46. Looking at the whole picture, it seems that the PL enjoys a slightly less HE then placing the 6/8, but is this really the case?

    The reason that I say this is because the PL is a contract bet. Once the initial comeout roll is done, that bet cannot be removed and must be resolved. This is not the case for the 6/8. Even though placing these numbers carry a higher HE, we can remove it at anytime, thus bringing into play the "HE per roll." On the average, a bet is resolved in 6 rolls (a 7 rolls 1/6 times). Hypothetically if we were to remove the place bet prior to 6 rolls every time, then that bet should have less exposure to the 7 then the PL bet. If we were to calculate the HE of both bets (PL and place), taking into account the fact that the PL is "hypothetically and mathematically" resolved after 6 rolls and that we will remove the place bet after 4 rolls every time, does that change the HE enough to favor the place bet over the PL.

    Honestly I don't know because I am not good enough to make those calculations. What I do see is there are many crap players who will place bet but only for X rolls prior to removing them, and they do this on every player. Obviously they will miss the hot rolls but they feel that with less exposure to the 7, their bankrolls tend to last longer.
     
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  2. tabletop123, Jul 11, 2018

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    I cannot answer the Math question...Passline versus Place Bet the way that you explained it, but I DO know that removing Your bets after a/any win is a smart thing to do. Its called playing for keeps. Sure, you will miss out on the long hands, but let's face it.....long hands are very rare REGARDLESS of WHOMEVER is tossing the dice.
    Take a regression move for example...let's say a person places $240 inside. The nine hits, & he's paid $84. He automatically regresses to $44 inside. He made a $40 profit even if the next toss is a Seven Out.
    Let's say that he regresses to $44 inside, & gets 3 more inside hits.
    Well...that's another $42 added to the $40 profit locked up in the rack for a profit of $82.
    So.....by NOT taking the INITIAL $84 profit, & locking the WHOLE profit in your rack you made LESS money by regressing to $44 inside, & allowing the hand to play out.
    In MY opinion...this is how the Casinos beat us. We have a profit, & INSTEAD of locking up the WHOLE profit, we leave a few bets on the table, the hand goes to shit, & we end up not making a dime extra.

    It goes back to my old saying: " One in the hand beats two in the bush!!!
    Keep praying for that Monster hand.
    Keep saying: " Well, I already made a profit off of the hand, so I'll fire some of THEIR money back at them to see if I can win a little bit more. TYPICAL!
    Just the way that the Casino LOVES for the player to think. ( Once you win a bet it's YOUR money)
    As for Old Top.....I'll KEEP/RACK my winnings, take ALL of my bets down, & head straight to the cage!!!
     
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  3. TDVegas, Jul 11, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    The fact that a pass line wager is a contract bet makes no difference to the house edge. The 6 & 8 are expected to lose $1.52 per $100 wagered. The pass line is expected to lose $1.41 per $100 wagered.

    The house edge calculations don't deal in hypotheticals.

    Removing a place bet on the 6 & 8 while the pass line wager remains? Well, then the house edge on your non bet is 0%. Then we are not comparing apples to apples. The best bet in the casino is a "no bet";)
     
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  4. Mssthis1, Jul 12, 2018

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    That is the only advantage if you don't mind standing at the table doing TUMA time.

    The pass line is resolved a lot more often than 1 in 6. Winners resolve it also. I'm pretty sure it's less than 1 in 4 if you count comeout rolls.

    You will also miss those comeout sequences of 7,11,7,7 etc. I saw several of those last trip and have started half parlaying a $10 pass line bet after the first hit and collecting all but $10 if it hits at $50. This occurs more often than you might think.

    Thanks to Koko, I believe you're the one who mentioned it. If not, thanks to whoever it was.
     
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  5. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 12, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

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    3.376 rolls/decision for Pass/Come, per Don Catlin.
    As TDVegas noted you can't lose if you aren't playing. Simply standing at the table does not count as playing. Hence any strategy that reduces exposure to the HE by sitting out some rolls will be expected to lose less per unit of time than an equivalent strategy that bets on every roll. This even applies to place bets made on the same number, but with some working and some not on the comeout.

    The complete control a player has over Place bets is often used as evidence of their superiority to Pass/Come bets, but that "advantage" is only applicable for players who want to trick themselves into thinking they are playing when in fact they are only watching. I agree that HE/roll is a better way to compare bets than HE/decision, but only if rolls actually in action are counted.
     
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  6. whodat, Jul 12, 2018

    whodat

    whodat Member

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    Thanks for the stat on the resolution of the PL, MNS. Since that is resolved less then 4 rolls on the average, there is no advantage to leaving the place bet on for 4 rolls EVEN IF I had assumed that there were.
     
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  7. random_roller, Jul 12, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    You may want to reconsider, lol.
     
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  8. whodat, Jul 12, 2018

    whodat

    whodat Member

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    Thanks for all the replies. Personally I like the ability to remove my bet at anytime. This is why I like the place bets. The problem as everyone has pointed out is that they carry a bigger HE depending on which number you place. I often bypass the PL and place the bet as it BECOMES a better play after the point has been established (unless you can back up the PL with 5x odds or more). Unfortunately I see all those comeout winners :(. One method that I though about doing is to LAY the 4 or 10 for $70 (to win $35 with a vig of $1). The HE on this is 1.4 % and it would negate the comeout 7 winners. If a point (hopefully not the one that I lay) is made, then I would take my LAY bet down and proceed to place bets.
     
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  9. James Hall, Jul 12, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Okay , so that everybody can understand what you
    are suggesting here after working your CASINO MATH

    Is the suggestion , to save 11cents of every $100 bet the smart play
    is to take bets that pay less on each win
     
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  10. TDVegas, Jul 12, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    I never suggested any “play” in this thread. That decision is left up to the player.

    Just merely noting the house edge of both bets.
     
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  11. James Hall, Jul 12, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Moments of bet inactivity are not necessarily ,"not playing"
    In my case they are generally a momentary tactical hesitation
    There are certain periods in my betting strategy where
    I will be off for a roll and sometimes two rolls then I will
    call them back on or take all but my pass line bet down
    even at that point I am still playing because I am throwing the dice
     
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  12. basicstrategy777, Jul 12, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    If you only play place bets and your strategy is to be off for 2 rolls when the dice go off the table....this means your not playing during those 2 rolls ?....This is part of your overall game plan and falls under the umbrella of play during your session....I don't think the IRS or the one that determines your time at the table for comps thinks that you are not playing.........where is written that when you are at the table with chips in your rack, that you not a player and not playing ?.....if I leave a chip in my rack and go take a piss, I'm playing and this time will be considered as part of my session.........this is silly stuff to talk about, in my humble opinion.

    777
     
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  13. Twelve4s, Jul 12, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Was playing at a table, and guy on the other end was just standing around like a robot. Dealer didn’t say shit to him about not betting.

    A859C613-C907-4B5B-87B6-E7C186D2BEE8.jpeg
     
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  14. lone irish digit, Jul 12, 2018

    lone irish digit

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    I think that might be Sydney back in the day because James said he was a most greatest mechanical tosser of the dice.
     
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  15. James Hall, Jul 12, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I was responding to midnights post #5 this thread
     
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  16. basicstrategy777, Jul 12, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    I pretty much was support your position.
    777
     
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  17. Twelve4s, Jul 12, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    I thought Sidney was Jewish? Are there Jewish robots?
     
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  18. James Hall, Jul 12, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    thank you
     
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  19. Edward-ky, Jul 12, 2018

    Edward-ky

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    I have mentioned this before about how much money you have on the table when the 7 shits on the parade. There is mention of win goals for the session but what about goals for a turn of the dice. For me anyway i have done better just taking it all down then just having pass with odds or nothing at risk. Sure will miss some hits but say you have X amount of money at risk how many more hits will it take to have whats at risk put in your rack. I will keep track of how many hits i would have had if i stayed up and the majority of the time i did better pulling all down. It is great to be on the monster roll but the frequency of those monster rolls is so few i dont think it is worth trying to chase it.
     
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  20. Settingcanthurt, Jul 12, 2018

    Settingcanthurt

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    You have found the struggle I go thru each time I play. Mostly i try to limit my losses by PL/W odds in a 3 point and sometimes it makes money. However the outcome I either go down in flames after reaching my loss limits or take my cash and dash after winning whatever modest amount i can manage. I do not play long either way, win/lose. But I prefer the place bet as it gives a lot more excitement/hope and can be more forth coming on winning multiple bets. I can make more faster and lose more faster. I have had some incredibly short sessions with place betting.
    But each time I go I have to decide how to play this time.
     
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