Play the... BIAS

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by SevenOut, Feb 14, 2019.

  1. SevenOut, Feb 14, 2019

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    The majority of Craps Players step up to the table. Buy in their Bankroll. Begin playing.

    Considering the numerous discussions about Biased Dice, Dice Chuckers, Dice Setters, Craps table conditions and other ad nauseam beliefs, why not take some time and watch some table action. First.

    Ad nuseam: Adverb, referring to something that has been done or repeated so often that is has become annoying or tiresome.

    I was an example of the first sentence.

    From the spectator side of Craps, there is much to learn. It is cost effective. The 'woulda, shoulda, coulda' events of dice outcomes only can impress onto one's mind that the winning and losing can:

    - Are not consistent or predictable.
    - Can alternate, without any reason nor among specific shooters, with no explanation.
    - Some Sessions may be best avoided by watching and leaving.
    - Any losing or winning session by any shooter is not likely to repeat.
    - .... 'your experience'....

    It is much more difficult to be a Spectator at a Bubble Craps. You are wasting your time. Any Player's game board cannot be followed without stepping into the Player's personal space.

    A live Craps Table with one or more players is a live Classroom experience. Watch wagering systems, if any. Follow wagering after a point is made, or a Seven Out. Do players press UP, or Reduce their wagers after a win or loss?

    Any Fool can do what I did... when I was learning and ignorant. Once I understood that Craps is a Game of Chance, did I also discover that the most brilliant Craps Players... can and will lose. No matter what. Bankroll preservation is more important than... playing.

    When you can rationalize in your mind why some players seem to alter their game to protect their Bankroll, and others are blindsided by repeating a losing System, believing this time the result will be... become the Poster Boy of Insanity. Do you dig half a hole, or follow the half a hole to the bottom?

    If you must persist in stepping into a current Craps Table in Play... at least be brave enough to follow the table's progress, as a bystander. Sure you may miss a good run. You may even saved yourself some big losses, as well.

    The Craps Table is Biased. Pass or Don't Pass are treated almost equal. After point, the Don't Pass player is the optimist. Once you begin making Place Bets, Come Bets and side wagers... your risk go from a near neutral to negative. This is the Dice Setter's main focus. Produce paying numbers to minimize this disadvantage. Their ONLY reason to Shoot Craps.

    Watch a Don't Pass player's wagering. He sits tight and waits. Like a buzzard sitting in a tree along a busy highway. An easy meal is always coming... sooner than later.

    I have followed a shooter making numerous numbers and never make point, but successful to those players covering many numbers. Myself. What did I learn? Not much.

    If I need the adrenalin rush... Craps is a bit of an overdose. Play the Bias. If you were right or wrong on your expectations... next time will not be much different.
     
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  2. eagleeye2, Feb 14, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    SevenOut,

    Absolutely CORRECT, for every RANDOM ROLLER, that is!!!

    Your only chance, therefore, is to avoid being a RANDOM ROLLER!!!

    Yes, one can accomplish it, but it is not easy.

    eagleeye2
     
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  3. SevenOut, Feb 15, 2019

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Eagleeye2... someone who had the fortitude to step forward.

    We are aligned in that I believe that the Bias in Craps are not the dice, but the Player himself.

    If a Random Shooter, or a Die Chucker as myself, is at fault for their losing... they need to play the Bias, which is a direct opposite of their current wagering system. The majority of losers are playing the Pass Line and additional wagers on other numbers. This is because the majority of Craps Players are 'biased' towards wagering LESS to win MORE.

    That is the Bias. Not being a disciplined shooter whose intent is to beat the odds.

    From my observations at the 'locals' Casino players... their System of Wagering is biased to the point... they believe that random outcomes will increase a return on their wagering investment. There is no connection.

    The biggest winners from my observing are the Don't Pass with Odds players. All I have watched are Dice Chuckers. No set of any kind. This is their bias. But... they operate a tight game by playing more to win... less.

    Few Craps Players can see beyond how to wager less, to win more without losing. That is why a Pass Line player wagers. The concept of the Don't Pass is not in their vocabulary. If Sevens are so easily shot as a Dice Chucker/Random Shooter... why not set for a 4 or 10, then set for inside numbers with three Seven possibilities?

    I am told Keno is a sucker's game. A player is shorted on what would be correct odds, as well. What the percentage may be can be found... but it is much like Bingo... but with a card that you create. The player can change his choice and number of choices at any time. As can a Craps Player, but wagering 20 cents to win $320 for picking 6 numbers to hit 6 on one game, at random.

    Craps is... different. You make your bets. Take on the accumulative disadvantage of a return on those wagers which have a disadvantage already built into their strategy.

    Don't Pass players take the risk up front. After that roll, they have the advantage.

    Since the majority of Craps Players are Biased towards the disadvantage after point... you had better be able to understand and perfect your Linaway's Theory of Dice Setting.

    Otherwise... no matter your Pass game... there is a constant negative expectation that collects its due if you play too often.
     
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  4. eagleeye2, Feb 15, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    .[/QUOTE]
     
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  5. eagleeye2, Feb 15, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    SevenOut,

    Essentially correct, however:

    1) You fail to mention that the Casino has ODDS, in it's favor on the don't side of players betting. Therefore, there is no guarantee that ""BETTING MORE to WIN LESS"" (i.e. Don't Betting) is a guaranteed winner.

    Thus while one can win from the DON'T SIDE, it only occurs on that ""COLD"" table, whereas One Wins on the Do side on that ""HOT"" Table.

    2) Most Do Players are hoping for that LONG ROLL, where they make a KILLING betting from the DO side.


    eagleeye2
    [/QUOTE]
     
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    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
  6. SevenOut, Feb 15, 2019

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Pass and Don't Pass both are paid even money on the line.

    Pass and Don't Pass both are paid correct odds on their Odds bet.

    A Don't Pass 'pro' does not Lay or use the Don't Come to minimize exposure to losses.

    Many Pass players use the Come. Really poor judgment on their part.
    MostPass players Place Bets, taking on added risk for... 'more winning potential'.

    A hot or cold table is judged AFTER the FACT, never before. What was hot one minute earlier could be a financial disaster, one minute later.

    The absolute minimum exposure to losses is playing the Don't Pass with Odds or the Pass Line with Odds. Period. End of game. Every other wager is added risk.

    Which is more entertaining? Of course, the way most Pass Line Players already have built into their System. In order to 'minimize' their risk, some have raised the potential to minimize some of this risk through Dice Control. Although, many who seem to understand Dice Sets and Dice Control have a poor idea of how to wager, when they 'expect' increased repeats of their minimum wagers placed. They then increase these wagers when any are hit.

    This is absolutely the worst way to display Dice Control with such hedging with minimum wagers, press, take a chip or two off the table... repeat and then lose. All the gain is left on the table and the few chips removed are a minor part of the initial bankroll exposed.

    We all want to play the numbers like a piano key board. Yet, this 'tune' is not written nor guaranteed success.

    We can all be 90% correct and lose. When I stepped up to a Craps Table, my Bankroll and Wagering are directly in competition with the other. When I am winning, I should take profit off the table. When I am losing... go Martingale or repeat what I had been doing?

    Once using House Chips... Bankroll secured with a net gain... this is the time to take RISK. Not before. Once you reach into your wallet for more Bankroll to support your losses... you are now using 'scared money' and will have an attitude that if I lost this much... what the Hell. The rest does not matter either.
     
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Feb 15, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Seven Out,

    Let's you and I discuss understanding Linaway's theory. I assume that you have seen the validity in his information about dice. There is no question in my mind that this man knows and describes to a T exactly what the dice can and can not do.

    With this information in mind, people can discuss how this dice knowledge might be put to profitable use.

    There are ways to use the information with every shooter, perhaps indicating what bets to make or to avoid.

    Although Linaway does NOT believe in DC/DI, he considers himself a DC, or dice conspirator, and uses DC dice channeling, in an attempt to use features related to his own shooting, to have an idea as to how to set and how to bet.

    Linaway's ideas on shooting have mostly to do with identifying your own "shooting quirks" (no LID, not quarks) and betting as if you know what to expect you might roll.

    Only in this sense is his stuff related to the what is commonly called DI, BUT, knowing his stuff well enough shows you, without doubt, that DI as it is described by the experts is NOT happening as they explain it to be, and if in fact these guys are good shooters, they could be a lot better if they knew his stuff.
     
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  8. tabletop123, Feb 15, 2019

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    The problem Kokomo...is that MOST/ALL of Dice Influencers are only concerned with how " Pretty" their dice look mid-air. The premise is that the better your " Pitch, & Axial control, the better your results.

    A Dice Influencer believes in influence, but they have no earthly concern as to which axial arrays that the dice end up in after the dice come to final rest. IMAGINE THAT!!! Lol

    The Casinos pay on the Top numbers, & that's ALL that COUNTS to them. Now..you cannot dispute that fact. The Casinos don't pay on how the dice end up three dimensionally.

    However, most Di's don't care or understand that not only are they missing out on the very ESSENCE of the results of the TRUE final outcome, ......but also that it is pure FACT that they are unconcerned with.

    It's unfortunate that the Schools only teach pretty tossing, & how to bet. They should also teach WHEN to bet & WHY ( based on FACT, & NOT conjecture) you are wagering a specific bet/s at a specific time during the roll.

    A guy ( let's use (G) as an example)....with a Deft toss that utilizes Linaway's Material....would be a LONG-TERM Major THREAT to the Casinos.

    However, you must understand that when people are having success applying THEIR methods....it's usually a futile attempt to try to convince them to add MORE ammunition to the Aresenal.

    That's just the way it is.
     
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  9. tabletop123, Feb 15, 2019

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    One other thing Kokomo....I have noticed that after learning/studying Linaway's material, I no longer CONCERN myself with the numbers on Top. ( Top, you Old Fool. The Top numbers are why ya get paid, or lose). Lol

    I simply want to know what's happening three dimensionally. While most anticipate the Call of the resulting number, I anticipate the Axial Array results.

    To each his own, right? Lol
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Feb 15, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Dude,

    You seem to know your shit. ;) Nobody's gonna sell you the Brooklyn bridge.
     
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  11. tabletop123, Feb 15, 2019

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Nothing special....Kokomo. I simply came to the realization that a pretty looking toss CAN BE...Lead to Gloom, & Doom if they keep resulting in the wrong Axial Array.

    I kinda look at those G2 outcomes as NOT necessarily Doom, & Gloom, but as a STORM that is brewing!!!

    It is VERY seldom that you see Longs hands tossed wherein G1 outweighs G2.

    My experience has been that with long hands, the G2 outcomes outweigh G1 by a minimum of a 3:1 ratio.
     
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  12. tabletop123, Feb 15, 2019

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Correction....kinda look at those (G1) outcomes as a STORM waiting to brew!!!
     
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  13. SevenOut, Feb 15, 2019

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Scarne wrote several books... one was Scarne on Dice.

    He never was a Player.

    Einstein wrote scientific mathematics to prove the Universe had physical properties not understood.

    Einstein never left his office.

    Linaway could visually take a pair of dice, orientate them and give a list of expected outcomes with the... delivery. Dice Influencing, aka other names included.

    Linaway does not play Craps.

    Theory and Practice are two concepts that do not necessarily meld into one. Many may try and fail. A small minority will be able to take concept and turn it into reality. Can it be proven? Only with an unbiased observation NOT at home on a Craps Table... but with Risk and unfamiliar turf within any Casino.
     
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  14. arrgy

    arrgy Member

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    "A Don't Pass 'pro' does not Lay or use the Don't Come to minimize exposure to losses."

    I totally disagree with you on this point. I have been a "buzzard" since I learned to play many many years ago. As a don't better I "almost" never lay the odds, the table has to be ice for me to do that. However, I have completely decided not to play the line and will only play the Don't Come instead.

    It is much much harder to chase a shooter on the DC then on the DP. A DP better can get raked on those automatic wins on the line because no point has been established. A good disciplined DC better who doesn't chase after the same shooter simply won't. If someone knocks down a DC bet of mine, I won't chase the same shooter, they might be getting hot, I would simply wait for the next sucker. Its funny how Come betters are frowned upon on the positive side, but on the dark side no one makes the DC bet. The DC also gives me the advantage of waiting to see what kind of shooter I am dealing with, if I see a guy who is setting up for an auto winner on the line, and he pops it, then I think twice about betting him.

    I totally agree with you on your dice setting philosophy, many years ago when I was a lad practically living in AC, I noticed that the stick at most places was sliding the dice to the shooters with a point number on top, but a 7 showing on the front side that faced the dealer, and unless you were really paying attention you wouldn't notice it. I asked a stick once why he did that, his answer was amusing (and this was back in the 80s) its our way of setting the dice for the customer.
     
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  15. KokomoJoe4, Mar 6, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I am not a craps pro, Do or Don't, but when playing Don't, like you I prefer DC to DP, typically do not lay the odds, and almost never use the Lay bet, since for me, with the trade off between never losing to the seven and the always paying vig, I prefer the better paying even money winner on the Don't to the Lay.

    If the seven was "showing on the front side to the dealer", it was also showing on the dice faces pointed at the shooter, no?
     
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  16. Mssthis1, Mar 6, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    If no, are those biased dice?
     
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  17. DeMango, Mar 6, 2019

    DeMango

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    Yes, and a pair of numbers should be kissing on the inside.
     
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  18. James Hall, Mar 6, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Some don't side bettors will fail to see the logic in what
    you posted here and they will continue to lose or win less.
    good post hopefully don't side bettors will see and use this
     
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  19. James Hall, Mar 6, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Another good one , he just set you up with
    4 possible 7s on axis , nice guy???
     
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  20. SevenOut, Mar 6, 2019

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    arrgy Post # 14:

    When I was stick, it was a positive to push the Point Number on top to the shooter.

    It was a negative to push a Seven to the shooter.

    The stick NEVER pushed the Seven on top to a Don't Pass Shooter.

    A Don't Pass player with experience, plays as you say. Avoids the Don't Come and Lay wagers. Those other wagers defeat the advantage gained after Point.

    I have seen a series of outcomes after point that satisfied the Place Wagers. Then Seven Out, which satisfied the Don't Pass player(s).

    When someone invests in a stock or an investment that returns a percentage of return on the investment, this is to be considered. Many consider more risk equals more gain.

    Not so. Craps is an investment for the very short term... like seconds. Other 'investments' can be followed over a long period of time to sit tight, sell or increase the original amount. One can study any outside influences.

    Craps... is not a long term investment. Those who practice 'Hit and Run' Craps game plan are those who tend to retain their winnings more often than those who catch a winning streak, only to lose all by sticking around the table.

    Win Less as with James Hall Post #18? Less is better than nothing. I wonder if Warren Buffet frequents the Casino's taking on risk on a return on investment? Of course not. Warren Buffet studies the risk before, not after purchase. Unlike a Dice Setter attempting to Influence the outcomes to mirror wagers at the table... one is much more predictable than the other.

    Anyone who plays Craps to make money, has more money to play that is disposable.

    A great Session at a Craps Table is a wonderful experience to have participated or watched.

    It takes more than producing dice outcomes to make table wagers pay. It takes a finely tuned game plan to mirror the tightest number of possible dice outcomes, expected. Most players do not have discipline. If you snag your fishing line often while trout fishing... sometimes you take in the excess line and toss the line closer where you have more control. Fish do not know you from a stick.

    Dice don't know a Chucker from a disciplined Dice Shooter. If you do not catch some numbers with a short number of paying outcomes... you had better draw in some wagers and catch the easier outcomes than go for the big ones that were not going to be biting.
     
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