Preakness 2018

Discussion in 'Offtopic Lounge' started by MisterInside, May 5, 2018.

  1. MisterInside, May 5, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    The Derby is over. Let's talk Preakness and Triple Crown. Excellent performance today by Justify. Ran
    extremely fast early and showed stamina late. Great combination.

    Bob Baffert, the Horse Whisperer, won his 5th Derby; 52 year old Mike Smith, who rides horses
    better than I ride golf carts, won his 2nd Derby. Congratulations!

    Question to Justify......Do you like CRABCAKES? On to Baltimore.......
     
    #1
    Onautopilot, yacraps and crispcem like this.
  2. crispcem, May 5, 2018

    crispcem

    crispcem Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2018
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    716
    Gender:
    Female
    Yessssssssss!
     
    #2
    yacraps and MisterInside like this.
  3. crispcem, May 5, 2018

    crispcem

    crispcem Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2018
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    716
    Gender:
    Female
    Baffert owns it, but Good Magic showed me some love today. Who knows what an absence of 3 inches of rain could have done to that finish... Hard to think of anyone dethroning Justify at the Preakness after today. I think the only chance is Belmont to end the reign of Justify and the Baff Machine. Preakness is Baffert's.

    However...

    I did work Solomini in to my bets as longshot and I do feel this horse has something special. He's a bit goofy looking, a bit clumsy like a true overgrown colt - but - he's maturing and his race today was no small beans. If he's in, I'm using him. The man knows what he's doing, it's hard to stop that wave of talent. I mean for freak's sake, Solomini came in over Bolt. That horse has got some legs.
     
    #3
    Last edited: May 5, 2018
    yacraps and MisterInside like this.
  4. MisterInside, May 5, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    Crispcem- I invested $100 into the Derby and cashed for $104.40 ($3 exacta). Visited the local
    simulcast joint here in NE Ohio. My oldest son and his family are 30 miles NE of Baltimore and we'll
    be there for the second jewel. As luck has it, the wife and I will be in Las Vegas on Belmont day. It'll be a thrill to be there for a possible Triple Crown coronation. I've been a racing fan since high school.
    Worked for Harry M. Stevens at the Maryland (hometown) tracks from 1967-1972. They were the
    concessionaire. I mainly sold hot dogs and cigarettes at Pimlico, Bowie, Laurel and Timonium.
    Good times.

    Secretariat was a welcome relief during the Watergate era. Maybe Justify can provide
    some badly needed good, clean, fun news for the next 5 weeks. We need it and the racing game
    needs it too.
     
    #4
  5. MisterInside, May 7, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    Latest William Hill odds on Justify to win the Triple Crown: YES +$100; No -$130

    With no serious contender for the Preakness, Justify will likely pay no better that $2.20 to win. Provided there are more than 5 runners, there will be show betting on the race. Law requires a minimum show payoff to be $2.10. With an overwhelming favorite such as Justify, the track can lose money on the race as they have to pay at least $2.10 for a $2 wager. This is called a "minus show pool". The largest of these occurred in 1995 as the legendary Cigar raced in the Woodward Stakes at Belmont. $1.8 million was bet on Cigar to show, causing a minus show pool of $335,607 that the track had to absorb. New York state still collected their piece.

    The last such Preakness standout was in 1979 when Spectacular Bid won the race with a 5 horse
    field. He paid $2.20 to win and $2.10 to place. No show betting. In 1966, Hialeah Park ran the Flamingo Stakes as a 'Exhibition Race' despite an 8 horse field because of the presence of the great Buckpasser. He won and the race was known thereafter as the "Chicken Flamingo".

    In this crazy age of million dollar bettors, Cigar's record is in jeopardy of falling at Pimlico. Although there is no such thing as a sure thing at the track, Justify might be the closest thing. It would probably take a catastrophic injury to the horse to prevent him finishing worse than 3rd.

    5% return on your money. It doesn't intrigue me, but I wouldn't be surprised if several 'bridge jumpers' load up. This is what they are called for the obvious reason if the horse finished 4th or worse.
     
    #5
    yacraps likes this.
  6. basicstrategy777, May 8, 2018

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    7,953
    Likes Received:
    6,197
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    Horse can't talk....you just never know how they feel.......I'd love to see him win and go to Belmont running for the triple crown.

    I bought 20 win tickets on American Pharoah; I gave most away; I have 5 left....I was there on 6 Jun 2015 when the 5 came in....lots of cheering.

    I was also at Belmont 5 June 2004 to see Smarty Jones win the triple crown.....fuckin' Zito and Birdstone......also, on the infield TV it showned the Great Communicator had died.........sad day for alota reasons........friggin' Birdstone



    777
     
    #6
    crispcem, yacraps and MisterInside like this.
  7. MisterInside, May 8, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    Although I grew up in Baltimore and a racing fan since 1967, I only got to Belmont once. But I did pick
    the right day to go, June 9, 1973.

    The print below hangs in my club room and the $2 win ticket is within the print, bottom right. The NYRA
    reported that somewhere around 5,000 tickets are outstanding.

    IMG_20180508_100754_hdr.jpg
     

    Attached Files:

    #7
    crispcem and yacraps like this.
  8. yacraps, May 8, 2018

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2,568
    Likes Received:
    2,720
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    san diego
    I would have loved to see that horse run in real time you sure were lucky that day ;)..neat post
     
    #8
    crispcem likes this.
  9. TDVegas, May 8, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    13,902
    Likes Received:
    6,921
    Are you suggesting this Preakness is going to be a very small field?
     
    #9
    yacraps likes this.
  10. crispcem, May 8, 2018

    crispcem

    crispcem Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2018
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    716
    Gender:
    Female
    Got goosebumps reading this - lucky you!
     
    #10
    yacraps likes this.
  11. crispcem, May 8, 2018

    crispcem

    crispcem Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2018
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    716
    Gender:
    Female
    WOW. Love it!
     
    #11
    yacraps likes this.
  12. basicstrategy777, May 8, 2018

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    7,953
    Likes Received:
    6,197
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    That is absolutely amazing......you are a lucky man to have witnessed that.

    ESPN rated the 100 greatest atheletes of the 20th century...secretariat was rated 35th.........when they listed the greatest performances of all time, he came in second, the only non-human on the list.

    On autopsy his heart weighed 22 pounds, 2 and a half times larger than the average horse....

    He came about at just the right time.....America needed a hero at this time in its history, especially with the war ....he took over America by storm, with his performances and his personality.

    If you want to read a really good book on Secretariat, read The Horse that God Built, by Lawrence Scanlon.

    Again, you are so fortunate to have witnesed that race. His time of 2:24 stands as the record to this day.

    777
     
    #12
    Last edited: May 9, 2018
    yacraps and crispcem like this.
  13. MisterInside, May 8, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    My best friend and I arrived at Belmont around 9:15 am and the place was empty. I was shocked. We were
    in the clubhouse and went to the seating area approximately 40 yards past the finish line. I found an usher and asked if these seats were taken, in other words, reserved. In typical New York fashion, he said, "Does
    it look like it?" I couldn't believe it. As a fan, you can remember the anticipation of that race. The last
    Triple Crown winner was the great Citation in 1948. Secretariat had been on the covers of Newsweek, Time and Sports Illustrated that week. The country was looking for an escape from Watergate. Here was
    an extraordinarily beautiful animal, owned by an attractive, classy woman named Penny. He had just set
    a track record in America's favorite race and probably had done so in the Preakness, but a teletimer
    malfunction seems to have kept him from the Pimlico record. Temporarily.

    I had taken my disposible Kodak camera with me. There were 5 shots left. I had taken some photos at
    the Preakness and a few on the Sunday before the Preakness. I went to Pimlico that Sunday morning
    to watch "Big Red" workout. He breezed 5 furlongs in a swift 57 2/5. I was at the finish line and caught
    him in midair at the wire. There were hundreds of fans present for that workout and they measured his
    stride after the workout to compare it to Man o' War's. The late Bill Nack referenced that in his book.

    I took 3 shots during the Belmont race. The post parade, the break and the finish. I caught Secretariat
    hitting the wire from my perspective 40 yards past the finish line. Up the track, you can barely see the
    head of Twice A Prince who finished second, 31 lengths behind. Those pictures are in Baltimore now.
    I'll get them back when I go out there in 10 days and I will post them on this site. I had them in my
    desktop computer but the damn thing crashed and I can't retrieve them. I don't know Jack about
    computers and the like. Anyway, we've all seen pictures of Secretariat at the Belmont finish line but
    this perspective is different. I took the damn picture. I witnessed it. I was there. It remains the biggest thrill
    of my life.

    Again, referring back to the Nack book, during the race, in those great seats, I kept looking to the
    teletimer. I was concerned about the pace. When I saw the 3/4 time of 1:09 4/5, I was stunned and
    concerned. My favorite horse of all time, Dr. Fager had run slightly faster fractions than that a couple
    times only to have the great Damascus catch him in the stretch. But as Sham faltered and the lead increased, I realized that I was witnessing the greatest performance in the history of horse racing.
    And I was there. My only trip to Belmont and I saw this. Nack's description is identical to mine. I didn't steal it from him. That's how I felt. I still get chills thinking about it 45 years later.

    As he approached the finish line, my friend screams out to GET THE PICTURE and I snapped it. I was
    so excited, I would not have taken the shot if not for him. When I saw the time of 2:24, my feelings about
    the greatness of Secretariat's performance were confirmed. He broke Gallant Man's record by 2 3/5
    seconds. That has never happened before or since.

    About 4 weeks later, on July 4th, I met a gal (whose last name was Gamble) and we fell in love. We've
    been married for 42+ years now. The summer of 1973 was the greatest summer of my life.
     
    #13
  14. basicstrategy777, May 8, 2018

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    7,953
    Likes Received:
    6,197
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    That's a great story. I enjoyed it very much.

    777
     
    #14
    yacraps likes this.
  15. MisterInside, May 8, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    Thanks for asking!

    I'd set the over/under at 8. Only a hunch. Not too many years ago, the Preakness was the best and most competitive of the 3 races. The Derby weeded out the pretenders. A couple on the bench for training or injury reasons would be ready for Pimlico. With a reasonable number of participants, unlike the 20 horse Derby stampede, ability trumped bad luck and the cream would tend to rise to the top in the Preakness. The Belmont was contested at 1 1/2 miles, a distance that that these horses would probably never run again. A large majority of American races are between 6 and 9 furlongs.

    So what happened to change things? The Derby became a special social event. It was glamorous to have a horse run in it, regardless of his ability. Every owner dreams of running a horse in the Derby. Style
    over substance took over. Twenty horse fields became the norm. Not too long ago, twelve horses was
    the maximum. Big difference.

    The next major change I'll call the money factor. The potential value of a successful, well bred thoroughbred lies largely in breeding. American Pharoah is earning $200,000 for every live foal that he produces. He is breeding 175 mares this season, that's $35 million in one year. Of course, he is the exception, but today's trainers are handling their stakes quality horses with kid gloves. They are running monthly not weekly as horses did years ago. Lower quality horses race with much greater frequency that their brothers and sisters going for the big purses. Today's horses are more delicate than yesterday's and they pass those genes onto the next generation. Just my opinion.

    The Belmont represents the aristocracy of the sport from a breeding perspective. Very few horses have
    the ability to run 1 1/4 or more. Belmont champions earn more at the stud farm. Lots more. Belmont
    winners can produce Kentucky Derby winners, horses that can 'go the distance'. The Belmont has become a much bigger target for the industry because of the breeding consideration. The Belmont has become a target for participation because of breeding.

    So, the Preakness is caught in the middle now. Two weeks after the Derby and three weeks before the Belmont. So what was once the best race of the three becomes expendable unless a potential Triple
    Crown is involved.

    Unfortunately, it boils down to money. It is ruining horse racing from a fan's point of view. I've been a fan since 1967. Bowie, Laurel and Pimlico would attract 17,000-22,000 on a typical Saturday. Aqueduct and Belmont would double that. Normal Saturday attendance today is about 10% of that. Granted there are
    plenty of off track betting options for folks not wishing to go to the track, but interest in the sport isn't
    there anymore. I just hate to see a sport that I've followed for 50 years go down hill.

    What's the future for the Preakness in this current state? Maybe change the schedule and have 4 weeks
    between each race. Pimlico won't be hosting the Preakness for much longer. Their annual meet is now
    only 12 days. That is a joke. Look for the Preakness to move to Laurel, Gulfstream or Santa Anita.
    They're all owned by the same conglomerate. One thing is for sure. Fans won't be consulted for any
    advice. Casinos and racinos will throw some money to the race tracks for purses and the politicians will
    find a way to get their taste.

    Just my opinion.
     
    #15
    Last edited: May 8, 2018
  16. yacraps, May 8, 2018

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2,568
    Likes Received:
    2,720
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    san diego
    QUOTE="MisterInside, post: 217211, member: 202733"]My best friend and I arrived at Belmont around 9:15 am and the place was empty. I was shocked. We were
    in the clubhouse and went to the seating area approximately 40 yards past the finish line. I found an usher and asked if these seats were taken, in other words, reserved. In typical New York fashion, he said, "Does
    it look like it?" I couldn't believe it. As a fan, you can remember the anticipation of that race. The last
    Triple Crown winner was the great Citation in 1948. Secretariat had been on the covers of Newsweek, Time and Sports Illustrated that week. The country was looking for an escape from Watergate. Here was
    an extraordinarily beautiful animal, owned by an attractive, classy woman named Penny. He had just set
    a track record in America's favorite race and probably had done so in the Preakness, but a teletimer
    malfunction seems to have kept him from the Pimlico record. Temporarily.

    I had taken my disposible Kodak camera with me. There were 5 shots left. I had taken some photos at
    the Preakness and a few on the Sunday before the Preakness. I went to Pimlico that Sunday morning
    to watch "Big Red" workout. He breezed 5 furlongs in a swift 57 2/5. I was at the finish line and caught
    him in midair at the wire. There were hundreds of fans present for that workout and they measured his
    stride after the workout to compare it to Man o' War's. The late Bill Nack referenced that in his book.

    I took 3 shots during the Belmont race. The post parade, the break and the finish. I caught Secretariat
    hitting the wire from my perspective 40 yards past the finish line. Up the track, you can barely see the
    head of Twice A Prince who finished second, 31 lengths behind. Those pictures are in Baltimore now.
    I'll get them back when I go out there in 10 days and I will post them on this site. I had them in my
    desktop computer but the damn thing crashed and I can't retrieve them. I don't know Jack about
    computers and the like. Anyway, we've all seen pictures of Secretariat at the Belmont finish line but
    this perspective is different. I took the damn picture. I witnessed it. I was there. It remains the biggest thrill
    of my life.

    Again, referring back to the Nack book, during the race, in those great seats, I kept looking to the
    teletimer. I was concerned about the pace. When I saw the 3/4 time of 1:09 4/5, I was stunned and
    concerned. My favorite horse of all time, Dr. Fager had run slightly faster fractions than that a couple
    times only to have the great Damascus catch him in the stretch. But as Sham faltered and the lead increased, I realized that I was witnessing the greatest performance in the history of horse racing.
    And I was there. My only trip to Belmont and I saw this. Nack's description is identical to mine. I didn't steal it from him. That's how I felt. I still get chills thinking about it 45 years later.

    As he approached the finish line, my friend screams out to GET THE PICTURE and I snapped it. I was
    so excited, I would not have taken the shot if not for him. When I saw the time of 2:24, my feelings about
    the greatness of Secretariat's performance were confirmed. He broke Gallant Man's record by 2 3/5
    seconds. That has never happened before or since.

    About 4 weeks later, on July 4th, I met a gal (whose last name was Gamble) and we fell in love. We've
    been married for 42+ years now. The summer of 1973 was the greatest summer of my life.[/QUOTE]
    I second that....neat post and congrats on the marriage ;)
     
    #16
  17. TDVegas, May 8, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    13,902
    Likes Received:
    6,921
    Very interesting. Informative. Thank you.
     
    #17
    yacraps likes this.
  18. MisterInside, May 10, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Everybody can calm down now.

    Justify was sent through a spirited gallop early Thursday at Churchill Downs in his first day of training since the colt won the 144th Kentucky Derby, allaying concerns that his bid for the May 19 Preakness at Pimlico will be hindered by the minor injury he incurred during the Derby.

    Trainer Bob Baffert has taken 4 Derby winners to the Preakness. All 4 won. Overall, he is
    6 for 6 in the race.

    HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY LAST RACE Odds
    Justify Bob Baffert Mike Smith 1st, Kentucky Derby (CD) 3/10
    Good Magic Chad Brown Jose Ortiz 2nd, Kentucky Derby (CD) 8
    Bravazo D. Wayne Lukas Luis Contreras 6th, Kentucky Derby (CD) 50
    Lone Sailor Tom Amoss TBD 8th, Kentucky Derby (CD) 35
    Bolt d'Oro Mick Ruis TBD 12th, Kentucky Derby (CD) 14
    Diamond King John Servis Frankie Pennington 1st, Tesio Stakes (LRL) 40
    Givemeaminit Dallas Stewart TBD 3rd, Pat Day Mile (CD) 40
    Pony Up Todd Pletcher TBD 3rd, Lexington Stakes (KEE) 50
    Quip Rodolphe Brisset Florent Geroux 2nd, Arkansas Derby (OP) 12
    Sporting Chance D. Wayne Lukas TBD 4th, Pat Day Mile (CD) 40
    Tenfold Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana, Jr. 5th, Arkansas Derby (OP) 20
    Cork Soaker Basic Strategy Rita Hayworth 1st, Hearts & Minds of Men (CT) 777

    Very unlikely that all of these horses will start.

    The column breaks don't show. I copy and pasted from an excel spreadsheet. Sorry that it all
    ran together. I'll take some free advice if you can help. Thanks!









     
    #18
    Last edited: May 11, 2018
    yacraps likes this.
  19. crispcem, May 12, 2018

    crispcem

    crispcem Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2018
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    716
    Gender:
    Female
    Goosebumps!
    Great story! Get those pics off your desktop! $100 any middle schooler could retrieve those files for you (probably younger!). You gotta get those pics!
     
    #19
    yacraps and MisterInside like this.
  20. MisterInside, May 12, 2018

    MisterInside

    MisterInside Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2017
    Messages:
    174
    Likes Received:
    359
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ohio
    Trouble is, as they say, there's never a middle school kid around when you need one. Headed to
    Preakness-town in 5 days. Will have the pictures on here soon. Thanks for the like!
     
    #20
    crispcem and yacraps like this.