Probability vs. Cumulative Probability

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by driglaz, Jan 11, 2017.

  1. driglaz, Jan 11, 2017

    driglaz

    driglaz Member

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    What's the Difference Between Probability and Cumulative Probability?
     
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  2. random_roller, Jan 11, 2017

    random_roller

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  3. driglaz, Jan 11, 2017

    driglaz

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  4. random_roller, Jan 11, 2017

    random_roller

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    What is the issue you are trying to frame?
     
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  5. Twelve4s, Jan 11, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    What's the probability of the Cleveland Browns winning the 2018 Super Bowl?

    What's the cumulative probability of the Cleveland Browns winning a super Bowl before the year 3000?

    My guess is slim to none, either scenario.
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Jan 11, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    The probability of rolling a seven is 6/36 = 0.1666667 = 16.7% of the time

    The probability of rolling consecutive sevens is 6/36 x 6/36 = (6/36)^2 = 0.0277778 = 2.78% of the time

    The probability of rolling two consecutive sevens followed by a snakeyes is (6/36)^2 x (1/36) = 7.716 x 10^-4 = 0.07716% of the time, i.e., less than one-tenth of one percent of the time.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 11, 2017
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Jan 11, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    From a non-fan of the Browns : The Brownies will win the big one before the year 2025. ;) and LID will still be kicking, although forcibly restrained from smoking by that time.
     
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  8. Twelve4s, Jan 11, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    Smokers gonna smoke...

    IMG_5977.JPG
     
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  9. random_roller, Jan 11, 2017

    random_roller

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    A) 0.00001%

    B) Slightly less than someone throwing 155 or more consecutive rolls before a 7 out on a craps table located in an open-for-business US casino under lawful gaming conditions. Although it could be a trick question because in 2066, following decades of concussion studies, football will be banned and the Super Bowl will be replaced with the All Galaxy Poetry Reading Competition.
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Jan 11, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    :confused: P = (30/36)^155 x (6/36) = 8.89 x 10^-14 = 0.0000000000889% = a bit less than one-one trillionth of the time, clearly a possibility. :confused:

    Where is LID with Planck's constant when you need him?
     
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  11. lone irish digit, Jan 11, 2017

    lone irish digit

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    Back in the day, Max was a good street Dice Influencer. One of his best Street DI moves was flipping the dice over by silently blowing on them. This small amount of force is what is now commonly known as Planck's BJ in street talk terminology. The picture below was taken years ago of me and Planck. The guy on his left went by the street name as the "Wichita Wizard" who tried for years to get the dice to talk to him. I'm not sure how that turned out. I must admit that Planck's BJ was a very effective way to control the dice if you didn't get caught.



    [​IMG]
     
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  12. random_roller, Jan 11, 2017

    random_roller

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    Sounds about right when we're talking about the Browns' chances for winning a Super Bowl before the next millennium, though some might say that is a bit optimistic. :D
     
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  13. KokomoJoe4, Jan 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    LID,

    You should seriously consider marketing your secrets to 'aging gracefully'. You know how women are- probably a lot more $$ in marketing that than in listening to and romancing dice, no?

    In the photo with a middle-aged Max, you haven't aged a bit in what, 80 years? By God, that IS the Wizard of Wichita!
     
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    Last edited: Jan 12, 2017
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  14. basicstrategy777, Jan 13, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    It's tougher to roll three 12's in a row than one 12 in a row. It's in my book.

    777
     
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  15. Twelve4s, Jan 13, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    Damn, that must be a good book!
     
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  16. Twelve4s, Jan 13, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    Is that UCDT on your right?

    The cat you say is the Witchita Wizard sure looks a lot like George Foreman.
     
    #16