Regression even if up

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by Titleistguy, Apr 4, 2016.

  1. Titleistguy, Apr 4, 2016

    Titleistguy

    Titleistguy Member

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    So I caught a MASSIVE hand on Saturday, one of the best in a while. It was the guy shooting before me, and here is what happened:

    I buy the horn numbers at 25 dollars each, (pay the 5 vig), and get my nickel hardways.

    On the comeout I always get a hi-lo for 10, so I get that too -- and sure enough the shooter throws 12 on the comeout -- so I take my 145, buy the 4 for 25, and wait.

    The shooter proceeds to ROAST the horn and outside numbers, after each hit I press a number 25. By the end of the roll I had over 200 each on the 3 and 11, and 125 on the 2 and 12, and 100 on the 4 and 10. My hard 6 and 8 were both at 100, having hit at the 50 dollar level ... all in all nearly 1000 on the table.

    I ended up making just under 6000 on the roll, and he only made 2 passes. But just murdered the outside. And I've spent all weekend wondering, if you're up that much on a hand, do you just let it all ride and go for the gusto, or should I have at somepoint brought it down. I typically don't like to regress, because ... well ... what if the shooter keeps throwing outside horn numbers?

    What have others done when up big on a hand, do you just keep going for it?
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Apr 4, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    It is rare when I keep going up without a break.

    I will say.... off on this roll....I'm down....or take some money off the table and start going up on the bets as the hand progresses.

    If the hand has been going on a while and I take my bets down, I will load up on the odds on the PL,,,,because the number is due.

    I'm never as big a winner on a long hand as I could have been due to my conservative strategy, as opposed to a "send it in' strategy".

    Don't misunderstand....I've had my bets up there but not nearly what they could have been.

    777
     
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  3. Craps Poopshoot, Apr 4, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    I live by this quote:
    "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"

    Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered is an old Wall Street saying that counsels against excessive greed and impatience.

    While attacking a hot table is a smart play, there comes a point in that attack where you have to start pulling down the profits to fill up your reserves. Getting caught too far exposed, such as pressing without taking some of the money down, when the seven comes - is one of the fastest ways to loserville!
     
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  4. Onautopilot, Apr 4, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    If you push the envelop, you will have some monster wins....offset by numerous large losses!

    If you play conservative, you will have some moderate wins....offset by the moderate losses!

    If you play ultra conservative, you will have some small wins....offset by the small losses!

    What ever floats your boat, and provides the "fun" you are looking for at the tables! Some need the "rush" of a big gamble, some just need the time at the rail. What is your thresh hold for excitement, and your available disposable income? Only you can answer your own question/

    "Push the balloon in on one side, and it just bulges out the other side."......Goatcabin
     
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  5. Craps Poopshoot, Apr 4, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    That is all the 'steady state theory', for every gain there is a loss. This does not hold true for gambling.
     
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  6. Titleistguy, Apr 4, 2016

    Titleistguy

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    Let me clarify - My question isn't a general, how do you always play type of question. Its more specific to the once or twice a year hand you catch, where, do you still play status-quo, or do you go for it.

    Understandably so, as a matter of good practice, a regression is a good idea, but do the folks that swear by it always maintain that even if they're a part of a very good hand that might not come along again for a long while. (lets assume a once per year frequency).
     
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  7. Titleistguy, Apr 4, 2016

    Titleistguy

    Titleistguy Member

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    So, lets pretend, as a function of your typical spread, whatever that is, for me its about 100 per shooter. You have 10x that on the table, and are up 5x or more on that 10x spread number. So for the math wiz, you're up 50x on your typical spread. Part of me is annoyed at myself for not regressing, but a BIGGER part of me is annoyed for not pressing harder.

    If someone's typical spread is say 20 dollars, it would be like having 200 on the table, and 1000 in your rack.
     
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  8. Onautopilot, Apr 4, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Personally, if that progresses to the point you mention, I usually go for the gusto....let it ride one more time, then one more time, etc. If we all knew when to pull it down, we would all be rich! :)
     
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  9. Onautopilot, Apr 4, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    It generally does hold true for the aggregate of players, but I agree, not necessarily for an individual player.
     
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  10. M & M

    M & M Member

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    In this example I'm shooting for the moon! No more regression just pressing.
     
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  11. Craps Poopshoot, Apr 4, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    At some point during a hot hand you say to yourself, "I am satisfied with the profit so far, and if the seven comes I can live with that". It is at that point I will press every win half of the bet amount and bank the other half.

    Typically I take profit early on looking to bank for twice what I originally bet.

    Nobody knows what will happen, if the shooter will have a monster hand or seven out as soon as you do your first press. It is all a Craps Shoot!
     
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  12. Titleistguy, Apr 4, 2016

    Titleistguy

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    Agreed. My general (I say that b/c I does change from time to time)... but my general classification of rolls is like this:

    1) The roll was a awful, I lost my whole spread on it.

    2) The roll was bad, but didn't lose whole spread, still didn't break even.

    3) Break even, neutral, roll paid for itself.

    4) Roll was decent, made money, didn't double my spread, but made money.

    5) Roll was good, made 1-5x my spread.

    6) Roll is awesome, made up to 10x my spread.

    7) Beyond that, the roll is something special. Time to go for it.


    In cases 1-6, I would apply the same strategy, I don't press until I'm even on the roll, then I press in 1 unit (25 dollar) increments. Until I get up over 10x my original spread. (approx.).

    In a given night of dice, I see some 1's, mostly 2-3, a handful of 4's, a hopefully a 5 or two....seldom a 6, and even more seldom a 7.
     
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  13. Onautopilot, Apr 4, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    A bit like I play VP....hit the quarter machine, pocket 80%, and put the other 20% in the fifty cent machine, hit it, and pocket 80%, put the other 20% in the dollar machine.........It has worked for me a couple times!

    Won't mention the other times. :)
     
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  14. Titleistguy, Apr 4, 2016

    Titleistguy

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    Sometimes I get paper bets from the casino as a comps. Say I get 100 of 'paper'. They typically give it in 5 increments of 20, and I have to use it in a slot.

    What I'll do is put in one piece of paper, and if I make anything over the original amount, I don't care if its 20.25, then I cash. Then the next piece of paper. Lol. More superstitions I suppose, but I always do better that way.
     
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  15. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 6, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Yes. I accept a losing won-lost record for sessions, so long as the losses are small, in return for the bonanza worth writing home about. Hence when the dice are rolling (i.e. hitting many points and box numbers) I will keep the hammer down.

    However, I do recognize that all good things must end, and so I have points in my progression where I double clutch. By the time I get to those points I have the dealers in the game and I will progress their bet instead of mine on a win. With this approach I have never lamented what might have been nor what I could have had.
     
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  16. Titleistguy, Apr 6, 2016

    Titleistguy

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    I like your style man.
     
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  17. Twelve4s, Apr 6, 2016

    Twelve4s

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    Congrats on the big win!!! All in!
     
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    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
  18. rudeboy99, Apr 25, 2016

    rudeboy99

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    Titleistguy...first off congratulations on your very nice score! If your usual investment is about $100 per shooter then a win of 60X is very nice...covers a lot of dry holes. The question of whether to and when to pare back your exposure due to what might be considered excess funds on the layout that are in action, especially during a monster has probably been knocking around since Bank Craps first evolved from the street to indoors. My answer is...there ain't no answer(not being a smartass). When you have pumped up your action 10X or 20X over what you initially invested on a hand, and it's been a good long while since the 1st come out, that HUGE pile of your chips begins to look pretty vulnerable...the time between rolls grows, players and dealers sometimes start bickering, etc., etc. Maybe that's a good time to regress ...maybe to 2X what you would usually begin with. If the shooter isn't even close to missing out, you can always start pressing again...and have a huge rail of won monies...that's what most of the math guys here would recommend, I think. Myself, although I've never been lucky enough to catch a real bigmonster while playing, I have worked through quite a few from the other side of the table and like to think that once I'd recovered a significant amount of $$ say to myself,"fuggit...full steam ahead until these bets max out at the table limit...as I said earlier, there's really no answer. But that isn't the worst possible problem you can have by far...again, kudos on your good fortune!!!:D
     
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    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
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