The rolling of the 12 and trends thereafter

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by cps10, Aug 24, 2011.


  1. cps10

    cps10 Member

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    Good morning!

    I read somewhere that if a 12 is rolled during a point-to-point roll, that in 90% of the cases, within 3 rolls, a decision will be made.

    Of those decisions, 70% will result in a seven-out. That means that if the 12 is rolled, you have a 63% chance of getting a 7-out within 3 rolls.

    Over some real tests, I had the following results (12 showed 13 times during these tests in a point-to-point situation, not in a Craps 12 situation on a come-out roll):

    Decision within 3 rolls: 9 of 13 (69.23%)

    Decision within 4 rolls: 12/13 (92.31%)

    Decision within 5 rolls: 13/13 (100%)

    Decisions made:

    Pass: 6/13 (46.15%)

    Don't Pass: 7/13 (53.85%)


    Again, I am trying to manipulate the outcomes to see what would be the best plan of action on a supplemental bet for this type of situation. It seems that it's almost guaranteed to come to a decision within 5 rolls. Now, how do you exploit this? Would you play a Any 7 at 4:1 odds as well an even bet on the Place number?

    If this were the case, if you bet $10 on Any 7, you would have 4 rolls to break even. If you were to hit the place for $10, then you would get anywhere from $14-$18 in return, which would get the following profit/loss:

    1 roll (7-out): $10 (or $12) lost on the Place bet, $40 won on the 7 = net profit of $28-$30
    2 rolls (7-out): $10 (or $12) lost on the Place bet, $30 won on the 7 = net profit of $18-$20
    3 rolls (7-out): $10 (or $12) lost on the Place bet, $20 won on the 7 = net profit of $8-$10
    4 rolls (7-out): $10 (or $12) lost on the Place bet, $10 won on the 7 = net loss of $2-break even
    5 rolls (7-out): $10 (or $12) lost on the Place bet, breakeven on the 7 = net loss of $10-$12

    I could have my math wrong, so feel free to correct me. However, would it make sense then to progress the bets to make the profit guaranteed? Obviously, there will be times when it goes past 5 rolls, but just for example.

    More profit/loss:

    1 roll (point hits): $14 won on the Place bet, $10 lost on the 7 = net profit of $4
    2 rolls (point hits): $14 won on the Place bet, $20 lost on the 7 = net loss of $6
    3 rolls (point hits): $14 won on the Place bet, $30 lost on the 7 = net loss of $16
    4 rolls (point hits): $14 won on the Place bet, $40 lost on the 7 = net loss of $26
    5 rolls (point hits): $14 won on the Place bet, $50 lost on the 7 = net loss of $36

    Just from what I read, it seems that the DP would be the play in a situation like this, and you would just bet on the Any 7 and progress as seen fit. With the decisions, the Don't Pass comes along at least every 3 decisions based on this theory of the 12. It might be a good opportunity for a side bet.

    Any thoughts?
     
    #1
  2. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 24, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I cannot come to those percentages, but before I present my analysis I have to ask: What is so special about a roll of 12? Would not any of the 36 possible combinations of two dice serve as a trigger? In fact, does there even have to be a trigger (i.e. could we not just start counting after a point is established)?

    OK, now let's grind some numbers. Points of 4 or 10, 5 or 9, and 6 or 8 will be established in a ratio of 3:4:5. Consequently, given that a point has been established, there is a
    25.00% chance that it is a 4 or 10; a
    33.33% chance that it is a 5 or 9; and a
    41.67% chance that it is a 6 or 8.
    For each of the points there are 6 ways to lose. On any given roll
    points of 4 and 10 have 3 ways to win for a total of 9 ways to get a decision (a 25.00% chance),
    points of 5 and 9 have 4 ways to win for a total of 10 ways to get a decision (a 27.78% chance), and
    points of 6 and 8 have 5 ways to win for a total of 11 ways to get a decision (a 30.56% chance).

    Multiplying the probability of getting a decision for each possible point by the probability of establishing that point, then summing the products, gives a 28.24% chance of getting a decision on any given roll without knowing what the point is. The complimentary 71.76% is then the probability of not getting a decision on any given roll.

    To calculate the probability of getting a decision within N rolls of any starting point we raise 71.76% to the Nth power (which gives the probability of not getting a decision within N rolls) and subtract that result from 1. Doing so gives a 63.05% chance to getting a decision, not necessarily a 7-out, within 3 rolls. That's as close as I can come to the numbers you give.
     
    #2

  3. cps10

    cps10 Member

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    Thank you for those numbers. That is interesting stuff. I would suppose that taking that further would be taking the percentage chance of a seven being rolled as opposed to the rest of the numbers, which would be about 10.5% or so within 3 rolls? That also is interesting, especially considering that the Any Craps 7 bet is worth 4 to 1.

    Maybe a Field Bet, which would account for 44% of those numbers is the way to go?

    Just rambling here now, but these numbers are great to look at, thank you!
     
    #3
  4. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 25, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Using the same technique as described above we calculate the chance of getting a 7-out within 3 rolls by raising the chance of not getting a 7 on any one roll to the third power, then subtracting that number from 1. Doing so gives a 42.13% chance of a 7-out within 3 rolls of whenever we start counting.
    Careful. Probability always refers to the future. After the result of the first roll is known the probability of seeing a 7-out within 3 rolls of when we started the count is no longer 42.13%. Rather it is
    100% if the roll was a 7-out,
    0% if the roll was the point, and
    30.56% if the roll was a non-decision.
     
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  5. Hardeight, Aug 26, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    I will be open minded about this lets see 2 or 12.I will take both into consideration and see what results I get...might be fun?
     
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  6. basicstrategy777, Aug 27, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    3 rolls after the come-out is over 50% . ( 51.77 )

    Of course this is useless information as we all know the 7 is never due.

    777
     
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  7. Southern-Comfort, Aug 28, 2011

    Southern-Comfort

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    Ok, I suppose its like trying to explain to the 14th century King of Spain that the world is round, but builders can still use levels to get the same results.
    Say its been several (say six) rolls since the last seven. Yes, a seven is due, just not on the NEXT roll... nor any other specific roll.
     
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  8. basicstrategy777, Sep 1, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    so the 7 is due, you say.



    is it more due at some times more than at other times ?.....or is it never really due .....even though probability
    says it should come up 1 in 6 tosses.



    I just got my electricity back.

    777
     
    #8
  9. Southern-Comfort, Sep 1, 2011

    Southern-Comfort

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    Congrats on the Electricity. Think Quantum Theories. Or String Theories if you will. I'm not going into the odds of each number on each roll so ajust what I'm going to say on your own if you need.
    There are 36 possible ways the dice can end up, each way is just as due as any of the others on each roll.
    So on the Next individual roll (or and individual roll for that matter) the seven has a 6 in 36 chance so I wouldn't call that due.
    However, throw a string of rolls in there and we det into territory that says that eventually every set should show (and experience tells us that they do indeed... casinos base their bottom lines on this). So, if say, there have been ten rollls with no seven, you could start thinking its about time. Twenty times, yeah its probably due.
    One hundred rolls with no seven? You probably have one due.
    But, its not due on any particular roll, just in the sequence of rolls somewhere. If you want to play due, pick a sequence and play it, I used to do that with the field and did pretty good. But don't hop seven unless you have someone setting for a seven.
     
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  10. Hardeight, Sep 1, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    I sure would like to know the each number Patty Demauro rolled and see how may sevens she hit before the come out?
     
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  11. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 1, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I'm going to muddy the waters. In layman's terms statistical tests start with what is called a null hypothesis (e.g. each of the 36 possible results from throwing two dice has the same chance of occurring), observing the results of actual trials (e.g. throwing the dice), comparing those results with the theoretically expected results (e.g. how many sevens were thrown vs. how many "should" have been thrown), and calculating the probability that the difference could be due to normal variance. If that probability is small enough the null hypothesis is rejected (i.e. in the example the dice are biased and/or the shooter is influencing them). The following table gives the probabilities of throwing fair dice with no influence the specified number of times without throwing a seven.
    Code:
    Number of     Probability
     Throws       of 0 sevens
    ---------     -----------
       10         .1615055829
       20         .0260840533
      100         .0000000121
    My point is that after observing 100 throws without a seven -- not without a seven-out, without a seven at all -- I would have to think the seven is probably not due because these dice as thrown by this shooter are not producing random results. The question I ask "number due" theorists, then, is at what point, if any, do you switch from claiming the seven is due to accepting that it might never be due?
     
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  12. basicstrategy777, Sep 1, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    MN.....this 7 due stuff gets me a little looney when at the table and the shooter has a long roll and not made his point.

    I end up acting like Chief Inspector Dreyfus. I am torn between 'the trend is your friend' and 'the 7 is due '. It really drives me
    crazy....I usually end up taking all bets down and loading up on odds on the point # ( as it has not been rolled in a long time and is due ).

    Of course the best senario is getting on a hot shooter....sending it in with all #'s covered .....and taking bets down just before the 7.

    Ah well.....


    777
     
    #12
  13. $nakeEye$, Sep 29, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Did anyone take particular notice of how a practiced stick person sets and pushes the dice back to the shooter -

    More oft than not -

    He will " set " the dice with his stick to have the " opposite " of what you just rolled facing up -

    Example :

    You just threw an easy 8 - consisting of a 5 and 3 -

    Before the dice are returned to you for your next throw -

    He will manipulate them so that an easy 6 is facing up - in this instance it would be a 2 and 4 -

    Furthermore -

    He will remove all 7's , Yo's and craps numbers from the upside of the dice before returning them to you -

    It is up to you at this time to attempt to remove the same combination of numbers from the sides of the dice which are facing you -

    Try this concept in your practice sessions at home -

    The results might pleasantly surprise you -

    Also -

    In the event HardWays are hit -

    You will get the dice returned to you with the opposite EasyWay number on top -

    Example -

    Hard 10 - 5 / 5 hit -

    You should get back an EasyWay 4 - 3/1 combo -

    Pay attention at the tables -

    Eyes open and mouth shut !
     
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  14. $nakeEye$, Sep 29, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Did anyone take particular notice of how a parcticed stick person sets and pushes the dice to the shooter -

    More oft than not -

    He will " set " the dice with his stick to have the " opposite " of what you just rolled facing up -

    Example :

    You just threw an easy 8 - consisting of a 5 and 3 -

    Before the dice are returned to you for your next throw -

    He will manipulate them so that an easy 6 is facing up - in this instance it would be a 2 and 4 -

    Furthermore -

    He will remove all 7's , Yo's and craps numbers from the upside of the dice before returning them to you -

    It is up to you at this time to attempt to remove the same combination of numbers from the sides of the dice which are facing you -

    Try this concept in your practice sessions at home -

    The results might pleasantly surprise you -

    Also -

    In the event HardWays are hit -

    You will get the dice returned to you with the opposite EasyWay number on top -

    Example -

    Hard 10 - 5 / 5 hit -

    You should get back an EasyWay 4 - 3/1 combo -

    Pay attention at the tables -

    Eyes open and mouth shut !
     
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  15. Hardeight, Sep 29, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    Now you are sounding like me and my theories...but I respect that.You have to watch out for the dealers and their actions.Call it paranoia or being observant but these trends could make you some cheddar.Its like stealing signs from a baseball coach.I am going to make this a separate thread because its good advice.
     
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  16. $nakeEye$, Sep 29, 2011

    $nakeEye$

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    This is the " RANDOM " premise that casino dice odds are based upon -

    Random results over thousands of throws AVERAGE out the accepted numbers and odds of the games -

    Does someone who is above " Random " - alter the odds - influence the expected norms - change the house edge / advantage from " negative to positive " expectation -

    If one, as I do, believes that the answers to all my questions above is a yes, an even so faint / slight yes -

    Then are not all those " accepted " numbers right out the window -

    Let us go back to BC - Before Columbus -

    The " accepted " theory of that day was -

    The world is flat -

    Venture out too far and your'e a goner -

    Upon his return the attitude of the " knowing ones " was radically altered -

    As was true with card counting in BJ - it is also true with dice influencing in craps !

    Someone sometime quick needs to accept the fact that the odds of a number appearing in this game is dynamic - not stagnant / etched in stone - as some die hards tend to clutch onto as its' their last straw -

    Or was it Mageallon - yeah probably that dude ! -

    And that changes everything -

    Now its BM and not BC !
     
    #16
  17. $nakeEye$, Sep 29, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Played in AC a couple of weekends ago -

    I was at a table with a Black Gentleman shooter -

    He was at one end I was at the other -

    For a while we were the only 2 players at the table in addition to my wife -

    If during the course of his point cycle a 6/6 would appear -

    He told the dealer - " Take me down " -

    He had been setting the 3V routinely during his point cycle except when 6/6 showed -

    I am uncertain if he intentionally changed his dice set or what -

    But I will say this with certainty -

    Each and every time after he threw the 6/6 -

    Within 2 to 3 rolls after -

    I was the shooter !

    Oh and BTW -

    After the 1st time I didn't " Go down " with him - and lost with a lot of $ on the table -

    You can believe after that episode I was cognizant of his every betting strategy change - and what " Daddy " did - " Junior " did !
     
    #17
  18. kaysirtap, Nov 2, 2011

    kaysirtap

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    Dealers are taught to "square the dice" after the come out roll. This is a security measure that allows the boxperson to examine all sides of the dice.

    Dealers are also taught to not send naturals to shooters. This is only because players don't like it, and dealers will do this as a courtesy. If they have time to do it and you are nice to them, some stickmen will actually figure out how you like to set the dice and set them up that way before they send them out.

    As far as turning the dice when a hardway is hit - I've never heard of/seen that.
     
    #18
  19. Southern-Comfort, Nov 2, 2011

    Southern-Comfort

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    And when they do that for me, they are given an audible "thank you" and are guaranteed a better tip. I appreciate those who assist rather than just watch.
     
    #19
  20. James Hall, Aug 24, 2018

    James Hall

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    Here is a very interesting post from a good player from yesteryear
    people might want to take a look at
    I will definitely make this a part of my practice sessions
     
    #20
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