" The Tough Craps Player"

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by Dave G Ct, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. Dave G Ct, Aug 14, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Let's have some fun! Tony Leo talking about the two main camps in dice. The advantage DI and the player who goes by the math.
    His argument The tough dice player reads all the math books on craps. He is betting on what should be not what is happenning short term. He only makes low house advantage bets. Pass line or come with Max odds.
    Never bets the hardways , field , or even place bets - maybe the 6&8.
    His mind only recognizes low house edge period.
    The Tough Craps Player is a Loser

    Have fun
     
    #1
  2. KokomoJoe4, Aug 14, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    How many math books on craps are there? There are thirty-six possible paying outcomes that are seen in the table of 36. This defines the math of the game. All calculations of house edge come from it.

    The low edge player understands that the next outcome will be one of eleven numbers between 2 and 12. Exactly what advantage does the so-called advantage DI have concerning the next outcome that makes him a winner? Can he eliminate the appearance of the seven? If so, why does he shoot a PSO followed by a three roll hand?

    Everybody (with two possible exceptions who will be left unnamed) is expected to lose at craps. This is precisely what the math tells us. There are plenty of times that things do not go as predicted, resulting in the player's winning a wager he has made..Perhaps surprisingly to you, even we random rollers have accomplished this feat.

    The smartest way to play is to be on a number every time it is rolled. This smart play results in raking in chips on every outcome seen. I haven't seen anyone perfect this technique, you?

    The game allows plenty of wagers to be made.

    You play your way, Dom will play with money sent to him for his sports book advise and I'll play mine. Hope to see you at the cage..
     
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  3. Dave G Ct, Aug 14, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Koko

    The Tough Craps Player expects to lose.It is in the math and I guess he accepts it.
     
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  4. HornHiYo, Aug 14, 2019

    HornHiYo

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    Dave which of the two camps (the advantage DI or the player who goes by the math) does the tough dice player belong to?
     
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  5. Dave G Ct, Aug 14, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Hornhiyo

    He goes strictly by the math.
     
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  6. HornHiYo, Aug 14, 2019

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    Who is Tony Leo?????
     
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  7. Dave G Ct, Aug 14, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Hornhiyo

    I posted his video at the top
     
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  8. basicstrategy777, Aug 15, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    Dave G.....are you ahead since playing craps for money ?

    777
     
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  9. Dave G Ct, Aug 15, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    I was ahead before I took up DI.
     
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  10. basicstrategy777, Aug 15, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    I guess you're pretty good......it's hard to be a winner in this game.

    777
     
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  11. twodicebilly, Aug 15, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Koko

    Respectively

    The casino does not have a 100% advantage over the player, so therefore the player does not
    have to over come that. All you have to do is move the needle a little ways.

    The last trip only 5 hands our of 17 were good winners, of them one was a real good winner.
    If you are smart enough to limit your loses on poor hands you will be fine.....But Koko the
    vast majority of players cant do that because they bet on everyone.

    Now anybody can have a good roll, but let me ask you a question, would you take $1000
    and pick a guy off the street and bet that $1000 that he would have as many 20 or better hands as
    Dom, Or Jerry, or even me or G ????????

    TDB
     
    #11
  12. Mssthis1, Aug 15, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    With a hand length of 20+ being the only parameter to judge by I absolutely would. If the DI is trying to avoid sevens on the comeout and is actually skilled enough to accomplish it, they will have fewer hands of 20 or more than a random shooter. This is due to the comeout sevens from the random shooter that extends the hand because of timing is that powerful, looking at hand length only.
     
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  13. twodicebilly, Aug 15, 2019

    twodicebilly

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    Missthis 1

    excellent, I will be there in October, you bring your
    $1000 and I have a couple of guys in mind.

    TDB
     
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  14. KokomoJoe4, Aug 15, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    The casino has a 1.4% advantage on a contract bet player, a 1.5% advantage on an inside placer, a 4% edge on the odd bettor, 12% on the HW bettor and a 20 something% edge on an all, small, taller.

    These numbers vary depending on the bet. That's all I am saying - the "numbers" say contracts are better bets than place bets.

    I bet on everyone. If I don't like the look of them , I bet Don't

    I would load up the Don't on the Dom - DP followed by at least 3 DC's

    Jerry I do not know. I would be on the line with you and G, because I know who you guys are and have reason to believe I might be in for a win.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019
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  15. Dave G Ct, Aug 15, 2019

    Dave G Ct

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    Basic
    Before DI I played the inside numbers- first hit regress down. The reason I became interested in DI - you will never guess.I hated to chart potential tables to play.Most were choppy. Now I look for a cold table- why? It is empty!
     
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  16. Mssthis1, Aug 15, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    I get $1000 from each person when I toss more 20+ hands than any of you guys, correct?

    Also where is there? You're coming to Prairie Meadows?
     
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  17. Dave G Ct, Aug 15, 2019

    Dave G Ct

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    Koko
    This thread is Tony's so I am on the sidelines.But I do believe the " Tough Craps Player" is and always been a loser
     
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  18. twodicebilly, Aug 15, 2019

    twodicebilly

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    Koko

    There are a couple of ways to look at dice control...first you learn a shot well
    enough and you can over -power a table. If you losing, your grip is wrong or
    something else is wrong and you need to take another class or fix it on your own.

    I am not going to say that is all bs....maybe there are guys that can get good
    enough to do that....I am not one of them.

    So now what, I think even if your talent level is limited you can still win a little
    more from taking advantage of what your shot can do, and matching that with
    the common sense Rick uses at the table and dice knowledge.

    I would bet on Dom or Jerry or G or Me over most guys based on what I have
    seen.... ( in G's case I have not seen him, but Top has) in terms of the potential
    for a higher than average number of rolls over 20....I got 12 years of seeing those
    guys...

    TDB
     
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    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019
  19. Dave G Ct, Aug 15, 2019

    Dave G Ct

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    Koko
    All your low house advantage bets and $1.89 will get you a small cup of DD coffee. Open your eyes G destroyed the tables at LV for two years and you are still peddling those contract bets!
     
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  20. random_roller, Aug 15, 2019

    random_roller

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    Here's where I disagree with some. The math says in the long run craps is a negative expectations game for the aggregation of all betting action. I think this is indisputable; if it was false, casinos would not offer craps. However, the math does *NOT* specifically state every craps player must therefore finish in the red over the long term. I am a firm believer there is a very, very small percentage of craps players who are net positive over the long term for a variety of reasons (luck, "skill", infrequent play, bell curve requirement imposed by the universe, the Force...whatever). Can't have too many net positive craps players or the game wouldn't be offered in (many) casinos.

    Overall house edge on craps bets is a weighted average of all bets made by the player. Not worth calculating IMHO, though, as the chip rack is a good proxy. I bet the ATS (@7% HE) but I also make PL with odds and lower HE Place & Buy bets at higher amounts. In the end, if I buy in for $500 and leave with $850, it was a decent night. If I leave with $100, well, there's always next time.
     
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