using the shot to make money

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by twodicebilly, Dec 26, 2019.

  1. twodicebilly, Dec 26, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Lately I had the opportunity so speak with James a couple of times and as some of you
    understand he is fighting a battle he cant win.

    having said that, in his terms he is winning and to be honest has already won, because he is fighting this on his own terms.

    I have been lucky to play with, see play or been taught by some of the folks with a great deal of experience and understanding of the game. And sadly, I have seen the reaction
    of many of you to all of them at one time or another, as you did to James and his belief
    that the game can be beaten.

    What I did not understand was how he came to this opinion and what did to insure that
    his opinion was worth the belief he had. I was amazed at his story and the journey
    he has taken to get to this point and understand what Rick had meant when he told
    me what James knows is worth knowing.

    the players that lived near James and had the opportunity to play with and work
    James over the years were served very well by him.

    TDB
     
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  2. Dave G Ct, Dec 26, 2019

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Nice post TDB!
     
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Dec 27, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Hope that James is comfortable and surrounded by his family.

    Don't remember much about his introduction to craps other than his saying when in LV when in the service he ran into this guy Sidney, who told him there is more to the game than luck.

    TDB, pretty sure no one believes the game can not be beaten, people win at craps ALL the time. More likely, people believe the game can not be beaten over long periods of time, as in one's lifetime.

    Why is this thinking wrong? The game is after all negative expectation, and many people play the game with multiple negative expectation bets working at the same time all of the time. Given this, good luck winning all of the time.
     
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  4. twodicebilly, Dec 27, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    koko

    I wont answer that question for you, because it appears you like TDV and others cant accept the
    very notion that you have to win all time to beat the odds of the game....people like TDV just say that
    to try to give him cover for his opinions.

    Every guy I know that has worked on dice control or what ever you want to call it, accepts the notion
    they are going to lose.....but lose less often,

    Koko...……. why is the notion you can lose less often than you used to and that some of the things you
    can do to help you lose less often not worth doing, and if they are indeed worth doing, why are they not worth
    talking about?????

    TDB
     
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    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  5. KokomoJoe4, Dec 27, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    TDB,

    The central limit theorem shows mathematically that REGARDLESS of where a group of data stands at a certain moment in time, it will tend towards NORMAL, EXPECTED distribution over time.

    Why do you think this is? I know why it is - it's because, given enough time, random processes show as expected and predicted by probability.

    There can and will be great variability along the way, but in the end, things will go pretty much as predicted.
     
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  6. Mssthis1, Dec 27, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Yep. Life is the same way. I wish everyone a long and healthy life but my personal opinion is I made it past the average life span of the pre modern era so everything after 45 is a freeroll for me.

    My wifes father died of a heart attack at 42 and both of my Dad's parents were shot by revenue agents in 1933 when he was 2. I consider myself lucky to be where I am today.
     
    #6
  7. lone irish digit, Dec 27, 2019

    lone irish digit

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  8. KokomoJoe4, Dec 27, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Forgot to point out, this is due to variance, not skill.
     
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  9. twodicebilly, Dec 27, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    koko

    The probability over many years of getting an elk with a bow where we hunted was
    25% for years, yet we average 60%, the probability to get a deer where hunt out west is about 30%
    yet we filled up this year for the 27th year in a row. Our fishing team has finished in the top 15 boats
    on average for over 15 years....

    craps is no different, except in craps the odds are so much against you that you have to be happy to
    bend the house advantage more in your favor than you started with, you cant win everyday.

    Look I am sorry you feel the way you do, you can do better...I am not sorry tdv feels like he does, he deserves
    to feel like that. BUT you dont play in the long run, the winning or losing of an individual player makes no
    difference what so ever in the long term probability of the table. One guy could win every single time he
    ever played the game and if that were because of luck or skill, it still would not affect anything.

    We play in the short run, I can tell you with out a shadow of a doubt that when I play next week in Laughlin
    I will beat your probability...why because I have done that for over 3 years now......

    I would have to be some kind of stupid to allow your opinion to affect what I will do next week.

    In the short run, the time you and I are at the table....probability means nothing, just like the idea that we only have a
    25% chance to take an elk or 30% chance to take a deer.

    James have been playing for 50 years.... he taught the classes because others that saw him play and shoot ask him
    to help them......no one ever ask TDV ????

    So believe what you will, I also hope you win....but if you do it is because you tried some of the things I have said or
    linaway had said , even if at the time you did not think they would work.

    The 4 minute mile could not be attained, yet when it finally was, it was repeated many times......

    TDB
     
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    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  10. TDVegas, Dec 27, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Everyone plays in the long run....the long run is nothing more than short runs added up. Anyone who doesn't know this lacks a fundamental understanding of craps probability, variance. Not all short term results are good. Sometimes it's bad. Sometimes real bad. Worse than expected. Sometimes better. Sometimes a lot better.

    What I'm hearing is some convoluted, ridiculous argument that because we are on the tables for short sessions....that we toss out "bad probability" because we will only see "good probability"....variance, outcomes, etc.

    I consider these players neophytes, with an utter lack of understanding of short term results as it relates to long term reality....good AND/or bad.

    Now for the guy who inflates his numbers, inflates his data, and embellishes or wholly exaggerates his results....I'm not surprised by his claims.

    I agree...throw out probability. This is why in the short term I've seen a hop player turn $100 into $500 in 15 rolls. It's also why I've seen that hop player turn $100 into $0 over 15 rolls.

    This is why I've seen an across the board bettor turn $100 into $500 in 15 rolls and I've seen him lose that same $100 on 6-7-5-7-4-7 rolls.

    Short term results = Long term result.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  11. DeMango, Dec 27, 2019

    DeMango

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    Without even seeing this thread, I deduce that TwoDice is being TooDumb?
     
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  12. TDVegas, Dec 27, 2019

    TDVegas

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    My intention was to stay out of this thread. He couldn’t help himself.

    His “pity” or “feeling sorry” for the random believer....and he wonders why he catches a ration of shit from others.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  13. KokomoJoe4, Dec 27, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Hunting and fishing involve skill and will show definite improvement with practice/experience. Dice results are random and do not correlate to improvement with practice, because random is random.

    It is precisely because a session is in the short term that sessions can be won, sometimes won big.

    Of course probability can be and is at times beaten. However, there also times when it beats the hell out of the player.

    We disagree on the topic of dice influence and that is fine. Hope you see a big winner next week in Nevada.
     
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  14. twodicebilly, Dec 27, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    koko


    Of course probability can be and is at times beaten......end of the story

    TDB
     
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  15. TDVegas, Dec 27, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Probability is merely an expectation.....the likelihood of something happening.

    7 is expected to come up 6 times per 36 rolls. Sometimes it comes up 6 times, sometimes 3 times, sometimes 9 times....and sometimes it doesn’t come up at all over 36 rolls.

    I fail to see what this is supposed to mean other than results vary.
     
    #15
  16. twodicebilly, Dec 27, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    TDV


    I understand you have your position to protect and so you do.

    But if probability can and is beaten, it matters not if that is down on
    purpose or by accident..... that fact alters nothing in the long run......therefore
    any one can beat the game more than another and affect nothing...so the discussion
    about this is not only stupid, but completely self serving on your part.

    If I think what I have seen proves to me I can improve my odds, if James feels he has
    seen and experience that he can improve his odds, if Rick thinks he has seen and feels
    he can improve his odds...….that changes nothing in the long haul and means nothing
    to you in the short of long haul because you play the bubble...not on a table....

    then you go on to say well I hope everyone wins...….if that were a true statement you
    would not act like you do to those that actually think they can win more than the math of
    the game suggests you can.

    Koko wrongly indicated the hunting results were skill...wrong....everyone can shoot.....we work
    harder.

    TDB
     
    #16
  17. TDVegas, Dec 27, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    First off, your statement is a loaded statement...and wrong.

    “win more than the math suggests you can”....?

    the math always “suggests” losing....not winning “more” or “less”.

    In what universe does the math ever suggest winning in craps?
     
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    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  18. twodicebilly, Dec 27, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    TDV

    In what universe did you ever play with James, Me Rick, Bob, Jerry
    Carlito, Dom or any one else long enough and record all of their play so you have a
    real basis for what you say ?????

    TDB
     
    #18
  19. TDVegas, Dec 27, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    If you think playing a session or a few with anyone gives a long term view of their results....then there is not much else to discuss. I’m sure they win and lose at times.

    I don’t know their long term results. No one really does other than each person....If they keep accurate track.

    As far as Dom goes and his claims on anything. He claims a 58% win rate on his sports betting. His actual for NFL this season is 47%. I tracked that personally.

    The difference? 58% means winning bettor. 47% means losing bettor.

    Do I believe his numbers are exaggerated, embellished and or inflated??? DAMN straight I do.

    On his dice claims...why would I take anything he says when the sports betting isn’t matching claim?
     
    #19
  20. twodicebilly, Dec 27, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    tdv


    So what your saying is you have no earthly idea
    what you have said about others is true or false.

    my word

    TDB
     
    #20
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