What are "streaks" anyway?

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Onautopilot, Jun 7, 2015.

  1. Onautopilot, Jun 7, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    People are always talking about streaks and trends. How do you define a streak or trend? Just for example, lets take the pass or don't pass aspect of the game. To start off simple, how many possible distributions are there in four decisions?

    PPPP,PPPD,PPDD,PDDD,PPDP,PDDP,PDPP,PDPD
    DDDD,DDDP,DDPP,DPPP,DDPD,DPPD,DPDD,DPDP

    Which one, or ones, of those possible distributions would you call a streak? Remember, any one of them is as equally likely to unfold as any other one.

    Since I can select any bet I want to, and am looking for a "streak" of four wins, which one of the above possible distributions should I select to have the best chance at hitting 4 wins in a row?

    If you want to make it a bit more complex, take 10 decisions, I think there are about 1024 different possible distributions....any one of which is just as likely as any other one. So, could we say there are 1024 possible 10 win streaks there?

    No matter what the distribution, it is always a "streak"! So, my question....how do you define a streak? Is it just a streak when it favors your individual bet selections, or would you say any distribution qualifies as a "streak"?

    Next question....if you see any of the above distributions in four decisions, is there any information there that you can use to your benefit in selecting your next bet, or bets? If so, what is it?
     
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  2. tabletop123, Jun 7, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    It's considered a Streak when My Rack is Overflowing With chips......... Or the Lack Thereof! Hence, a Terrible Losing Streak. LOL
     
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  3. tabletop123, Jun 7, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Figured that Since My DI'ng Skills are Marginal, & Ever Fleeting..... May as well Brush up on My Comedic Skills, Huh?
     
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  4. Onautopilot, Jun 7, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    If you can't have fun with playing the game....or talking about it, then why bother! :)
     
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  5. 5rthomas, Jun 7, 2015

    5rthomas

    5rthomas Member

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    I have been playing for this game for a short time 8 months off and on and this weekend was the first time I went out to the casino on the East coast "Foxwood and Mohegan Suns" to try out betting strategies and Di control. Needless to say I have to practice quite a bit onmy Di control as I made three to four descions and then seven out. But what I found interesting when talking about streaks I witness four different random shooters throw the dice for over 30 minutes staight. Two with some sort of DI technique and two with random toss of the bones.
    The made me allot of money as I tried to implement sound betting when I thought they had a streak. I also for the first time witnessed a high roller came on the table with a session bank roll of $5300 and when I left had about $15000. He tossed the bones for a godd 30 min before seven out. But his beeting what on point. This game had me questioning if DI is required, but I do feel if you can some what control the dice you can minimize the house edge and with smart betting you can make money. I played with a $300 session bank roll and came away with $1325 caputalizing on what I would call streaks that these palyers had....
     
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  6. tabletop123, Jun 7, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    5rthomas, You don't Need dice influencing To win. You need to be Lucky. That Requires being at the Right Place at The Right Time. Now, If(And that's a HUGE If) You can Influence the Dice to ANY Degree, Your wins Should Outnumber Your Losses. Assuming that You're Betting Correctly into Your advantage. My advice is to Leave the "Influence" Part alone. Just try to Consistently toss the Dice to the same spot on the Layout, & Keep your fingers Crossed..... Just Like Everyone Else!!! Now, If you happen to somehow fall into that "Outlier" Category, then YOU, my Friend, are in for a Very Special Treat. That "outlier" category is a Special Breed of players that Have that Special Knack for skewing Probabilities. Some call it dice Influencing. I call it "Just a Lucky S.O.B. that can do no Wrong when tossing the Dice. Is this a "Skill" that can be Taught? NOPE!!! Either you're Born with it, or You aren't. Sorry, you can Practice to make Your toss "LOOK" Better, but "Outliers" are Born, & Not Made through Practicing Dice Tossing. Who Knows...... Maybe You're one of the lucky few. Nah....... On second Thought, if You WERE an "Outlier', You'd have Known it MANY Moons Ago. LOL. Good Luck at The Tables!
     
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  7. 50/50

    50/50 Member

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    Random roller is a label dice schools use to identify players that have not been suckered out of money to shoot the way the school preaches. As you discovered, players can do just as well without it.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 8, 2015
  8. MustangSally, Jun 8, 2015

    MustangSally

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    for your 4 trial pass line decision
    that can not even be correct (for a fair coin toss yes)

    where F = fail = pass line lose
    S = success = pass line win

    FFFF has the highest probability of the 16 to occur (251/495)^4 = 0.066111055
    That is followed by a 4-way Tie
    between
    FFFS
    FFSF
    FSFF
    SFFF
    at 0.064267321

    remember when a pass line bet is lost that does not mean 100% of the time the don't pass has won
    even tho a few want all to believe that
    and close is just that, close but NO CIGAR


    again this is wrong because it is
    and with the dpass there are exactly 3^10 possible sequences (59,049)
    and not all either are equal probable

    10 pass line win/lose decisions results in
    10 dpass win/lose/push decisions
    they are different because they are

    and close is not close enough in my opinion
    =======================================
    to say that they are
    one shows their true misunderstanding of the truth

    and that is OK for those that do not care either
    cuz, it really does not matter in a simple game like Craps
    =========================================
    bottom line
    want to be a lifetime winner and die that way? (returns the MOST fun for playing craps)
    just have your wins be higher than your losses and we shall see who really did better when the books are opened
    for your example a streak is the same decision in a row or a run
    and the length is greater or equal to 1
    as a bet selection tool?
    yep for me
    why tell you?
    it is my winning secret
    no reason to tell the world how to always win at craps and die a lifetime winner

    got to protect my investment
     
    #8
  9. Onautopilot, Jun 8, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Thanks for computing it to include the push on the don't side. I am guilty of doing the math in as simple a form as possible...since that is about the limit of my mathematical skills. It serves me well in most cases though. :)
     
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  10. thecrazymr, Jun 8, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    We like simple questions and simple explanations:
    What is a streak?

    A streak is when decisions are either more favorable or less favorable to your betting decisions.
    Tables do not have streaks, it's the player that has streaks.

    I am on a winning streak.
    I am on a losing streak.

    When your bets are hitting more than they are losing you are on a winning streak.
    When your bets are losing more than they are winning you are on a losing streak.

    Having the ability to play both sides of the game, the streak is really labeled for the player and his/her luck in playing the correct side.

    I am on a LUCKY streak.
    I am on an UN-LUCKY streak.

    The table can be hot or cold, favorable or unfavorable, exciting or boring, but these are states of an emotional configuration. You as a player get to decide how you bet and what you bet so the STREAK is attached to your betting decisions and the outcomes thereof.
     
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  11. Onautopilot, Jun 8, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Totally agree!
     
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  12. thecrazymr, Jun 8, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    What is a trend?

    A trend is a past view of a current situation. AT THE MOMENT according to PAST EXAMPLES the dice have been rolling a certain way. We look at the last X number of rolls and figure that we have seen Y roll at least one time every so many rolls.

    Trends are an event that is happening up until it does not happen again.
    For example:
    • I see every player roll a 6 during their roll.
    • I make a place bet on 6 on every player and pull it after the 6 hits.
    • I only make this bet once per shooter.
    • Trend ends on first shooter to 7-out without rolling a 6.
    • When trend ends quit betting the trend.
    Based on this example, the trend may end on your first bet or may continue indefinitely.

    One of the reasons TREND betting is so popular is that if you spot a trend and bet it, if it does NOT end on that particular roll, you are from that point on profitable for that trend and you accept that the final bet in the trend is going to be a loss, but not a loss of profit made from that trend. Each trend begins either profitable or with a loss and end of the trend. As long as the trends keep making you money, you will continue to bet them.
     
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  13. TDVegas, Jun 8, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Are there people who really think that they can determine a trend?...future wise.

    The reality is that for as many times as the "trend" may continue...it will likely 7 out even more.
     
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  14. Onautopilot, Jun 8, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    As long as there is a craps game, and gamblers standing at the tables, there will be the whole gambit of "something else" ......Gambler's Fallacy will forever live! It takes the form of so many different "strategies" it would be difficult to list them all on this page, so I won't bother. :)
     
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  15. thecrazymr, Jun 8, 2015

    thecrazymr

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    Predict, future wise? NO

    As stated, a trend is PAST TENSE and may or may NOT continue. You can see what IS happening but never what WILL happen.
    • Everyone 7's out before a 9th roll
    • Bet in a way that as long as a 7 hits within 9 rolls you are up
    • The FIRST time a player rolls 10 rolls the TREND is over
    As you see, a trend is a prior viewpoint and betting it is to HOPE it will continue. IF it continues you take what you can and the moment it ends, you STOP betting it. All trends may end on the very next roll or continue, and there will never be any predicting which way it WILL go. NEVER.

    Some people believe that 7-out determines something. Others look at the 7 as part of the trend.
    How to spot a trend?
    First you must look for what you want to see, then see how often it happens.
    A trend is any outcome that occurs within a parameter of your choosing.
    • I want to bet the Pass/Come
    • How many rolls are currently rolling between 7's?
    • I never see any roll more than 5 rolls between 7's (including come out rolls)
    • I use a 5 step martingale on the pass/come to hit the 7.
    • Each bet that goes to a point I hope wins on the point to add profit
    • Each 7 wins my come bet martingale system
    • The first time the roll goes 6 rolls before a 7 my trend is over and I wait out all my current points.
    Finding a result and then finding its current max between rolls creates your trend. It lasts until it does not and then the trend is OVER.
     
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  16. thecrazymr, Jun 8, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Trends can be player specific.....
    • That player always has long rolls
    • Pass/Come until his roll is over
    • First time he has a short roll, the trend is over
    • Works the same for players who always have short rolls
    • Lay Bets until the first time that player has a long roll.
     
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  17. betwthelines, Jun 8, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    crazy, great post: one of the most clarifying i have seen here inna while...GAMBLERS have streaks, not dice tables...tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
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  18. basicstrategy777, Jun 9, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Streaks are short term....trends long term.

    You can have a short term streak occur within a long term trend.

    777
     
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  19. Night Attack, Jun 9, 2015

    Night Attack

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    Hang on a minute.

    If 8 shooters in a row make a 6 before a seven out, and the 9th shooter does not make a 6 before a seven out, then you say the trend is over?

    What if the following 9 shooters, and the 9 shooters after that do the exact same thing? Is that 1 trend or is that 3 trends?
     
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  20. thecrazymr, Jun 9, 2015

    thecrazymr

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    Depends on how YOU are viewing it.... are you betting on the 6 because of the first rollers? then the player that rolled NO 6 ended the trend.... The next group after the end is another trend and so you would have 2 trends and 1 break in the trend...... Are you looking at the whole table to see what players do what? Then out of 19 players, the 6 shows on 18 of them, that is 1 trend. Are you looking individually at a player to see if that player does something specific, that would be 1 trend..... Each trend is only a single trend, even though the one ended and began again, each is a trend on its own.

    Personal viewpoint and what you are looking for defines your parameters for the trend. Once set, each trend is broken when YOUR parameters are not met.....
    • If the parameters are every player does X then the trend ends when the first player does not do X
    • If the parameters are X happens every Y number of rolls then trend ends after Y number of rolls without X happening.
    Not that difficult to figure, set parameters and when they are not met the 1st time the trend has ended.
     
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