What are "streaks" anyway?

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Onautopilot, Jun 7, 2015.

  1. Onautopilot, Jul 1, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    A little greed and the almighty dollar, will find a way to infiltrate most any domain. But I agree with you on the forum thing. I believe Jacob does a really good job of filtering out most of it though.
     
    #61

  2. 50/50

    50/50 Member

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    Those gurus must figure this site is an incubator for growing suckers and they come in to fertilize frequently.
     
    #62
  3. TDVegas, Jul 1, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    So you track 5 sessions of 150 rolls each, mail the results back to these hucksters and they will then give you a gambling strategy based on those previous rolls. Then you walk to bank.

    sigh.....

    Never underestimate the lengths people will go to chase the dollar and never, ever underestimate the stupidity of those forking over those dollars.
     
    #63
  4. tabletop123, Jul 1, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    WALK to the Bank? Are you friggin Nuts? Why would you WALK to the Bank when you're Printing Money? Certainly a Rolls Royce Should Be in Order! RIGHT?
     
    #64
  5. TDVegas, Jul 1, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    These guys are like termites. They invade every and any gambling site, forum or discussion group to sell, sell, sell. What they are selling is low tide at the Gowanus Canal.
     
    #65
  6. TDVegas, Jul 1, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    shit, why limit yourself to 1-2 sessions per week. Why not 5 sessions and $5,000/week? Your career at Burger King prevents this? The wife no like more money? Your kids like community college? Vacations in the backyard instead of the islands? Shall I go on?

    Another scam artist
     
    #66
  7. tabletop123, Jul 1, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    E-A-S-Y TDVegas!!! LOL.
     
    #67
  8. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 1, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    One has to maintain a "visible means of support" to keep the tax man occupied. :rolleyes:
     
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  9. AdvantageCrapsPlayer, Jul 2, 2015

    AdvantageCrapsPlayer

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    @ a Craps Table Somewhere

    You make more not by playing Longer, but by betting a larger size unit built out of a Larger bankroll built up and playing less. But your comments are to increase the session i presume. So you are correct there as well. But if one is already making $180+ there's no need to be greedy and push the envelope in any Negative expectation game. Besides, I'm a home body and Love being around my family and new granddaughter and NOT hanging out in a casino like a Degenerate Gambler. I only spend 4-6 hrs total time in a casino per week. The goal here for me is get overall bankroll to the point were I'm betting $100 base unit. That would require a overall gambling bankroll of $100k, with session buying of 10-20k. The win goal would be 5-10 units, which is easily attainable when combining Level One and Level Two with either L3 or L5 of TSC. With a playing partner of equal value units, its more easily attainable.

    When you make this happen and you are DI but do this win goal NOT shooting, its so much easier when you hit win goal, more times than not you are the Lone remaining player who is not new to the table, bc they have all come and gone, that you can color up, drop into your favorite SL1-2 or SR1-2 or SOL-R and then shoot with no pressure at at and can now risk a little to win a lot. Using whatever form of progression you want. Kick them square in the NUTS. but let it be know by coloring up you did the damage to their NET, NOT by your shooting skill set, but rather by making the proper bets/plays at the proper time to them you just got Lucky.
     
    #69
  10. TDVegas, Jul 2, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Your strategy is based on the gamblers fallacy...that has been debunked many times over.

    Oh boy, another story about I've got better things to do with my time than make money in the casino excuse or "I'm making enough". I was waiting for that one and you came thru. Congrats. I'm amazed at all these system sellers who claim strategies to beat the casino and they ALL have the same excuse.."I don't want to win too much" and "I have better things to do, like mow the lawn"

    Your system is a scam.
     
    #70
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  11. basicstrategy777, Jul 2, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    If the past can fortell the future....the gamblers fallacy is in error.

    777
     
    #71
  12. Onautopilot, Jul 2, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    You know, you might be right....but of course you're not!
     
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  13. thecrazymr, Jul 3, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Everyone uses Gamblers Fallacy to write off any and all betting systems.
    I can't argue that "if used to be predictive and precise" it is wrong.
    What I don't agree with is when they say it is wrong to have a strategy based on averages.

    When betting based on averages, you are simply betting because the likelihood of an even will/will not occur sooner rather than later since it has/has not happened yet. Oh, they call this gamblers fallacy and yet I don't seem to be able to agree with them.

    Likelihood of any event occurring Will Not Happen 0 ------------1 Will Happen
    Sliding scale where event is in proper position based on the odds of it happening for first attempt and then moves closer to the 1 the more attempts that the event don't happen. Oh, that 1 can be pretty far out there and unless the likelihood is exactly 1 (never in gambling) each attempt can result in a loss.

    Most will say that after each roll, you reset unless you have bet the event and are waiting the outcome. Again I would need to disagree. Tracking an event make/don't make begins with first tracking roll, regardless if betting or not betting. Having chips on the table does not change the likelihood of an event occurring.

    An example would be: Most players are rolling a 7 after 4 or 5 rolls. So if I track the table and a player rolls 4 rolls, then begin making Lay Bets I may or may not win. Yet the likelihood of that 7 is a lot closer to 1 than it was a few rolls ago. The ODDS of winning/losing remain the same but the LIKELIHOOD is better.

    Gamblers Fallacy ---- the go-to response really does keep players from developing, after all, most are trying to beat what they admit is an un-beatable game. Isn't that in itself a fallacy?

    I wish we could get more players working on strategies. Even if those strategies are based on what is conceived as false notions. It gets the discussions going and it gets the craps community into a developmental mindset. More discussions of what about this or when trying that try this alternative. Regardless of the basis for the betting system, sometimes things work and sometimes they don't. To many people focus on tearing apart the thinking behind the strategy instead of finding ways to alter a strategy to fit various situations and mindsets.

    Gambling: the art of giving away money while believing you might win some.
    Gambler: a fool that uses a casino as his canvas.
     
    #73
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  14. basicstrategy777, Jul 3, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    The gamblers fallacy rings true when you say..." it will happen on the next roll."

    However, most people that use it in their play understand that we are making a rough approximation; in short, it will occur soon, not necessarily the next roll. "We're in the neighborhood here."

    I use Due Theory all the time , especially with prop bets. It is not the only strategy I use but its in my arsenal.

    Truly, to say the 7 should show 1 in 6 ( and have a casino's financial life depend on this number) and not believe it's ever due, is in my mind, a contradiction.

    Besides, I have the law of large numbers on my side.....that is, more people agree with me than don't.

    777
     
    #74
  15. Onautopilot, Jul 3, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I see nothing wrong with formulating a strategy that incorporates some definition of Gambler's Fallacy, but I do disagree with "the LIKELIHOOD is better", it is not more likely that a seven will roll if it has not rolled in four rolls, just ain't so! I do agree with you on discussing strategies from a rational view, but the problem so far, has been the one that proffers the strategy, ends up defending it with "irrational" concepts.
     
    #75
  16. Onautopilot, Jul 3, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Give me an example of where the "law of large numbers" favors your "Due Theory"! Oh, never mind, we've been over this several hundred times already!
     
    #76
  17. Grizzoola, Jul 3, 2015

    Grizzoola

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    FWIW: Playing Wizard's online free game (I can't get to a casino.), playing the 6/8 w/ PL, Come, & Place, I find that sticking with those numbers to the bitter end pays more than they lose. There's no way you can predict, after a series of rolls, when the 7 will show. You can't remove/regress your bets after X rolls, according to the math. Those fickle dice. ;)
     
    #77
  18. basicstrategy777, Jul 3, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    I'm glad to hear you are being rational here and willing to discuss coming up with strategy using Due Theory, which has been proven to be mathematically incorrect. Very rational..........good to see you starting to come over to the dark side. There is hope for you yet.

    777
     
    #78
  19. TDVegas, Jul 4, 2015

    TDVegas

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    What a stupid argument. If you are extracting +$1,000 each time you go. If you keep the same betting levels and go 4-5 times a week instead of 1-2---you get more money. Your logic is asinine.
     
    #79
  20. betwthelines, Jul 4, 2015

    betwthelines

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    7's lifetime results using "Due Theory" are similar to mine without using due theory: we're both kinda losing (tho undoubtedly he has probably lost less! <sigh>)...but it's like with DI: IT DOES NO HARM!

    7's posts on the subject along with crazymr's post above ratifies my rant elsewhere about the human impulse for transcendence and i agree with crazymr too that the gamblers fallacy should not be used as an excuse to avoid discussing stategies...but having said that if one puts forth a strategy, he should expect rational criticism and since this is a public forum, he should also expect irrational criticism and not be overly disturbed by it...tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

     
    #80
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