What are "streaks" anyway?

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Onautopilot, Jun 7, 2015.

  1. thecrazymr, Jul 4, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    First, many people that argue against using DUE theory of any kind feel it does harm. That is one of the reasons they fight so adamantly against it. Even though using total random theory for the basis of the same strategy comes to the same result, they insist that by using a calculation method (due theory) you harm participants because they feel it misleads them and corrupts their thinking.

    Second, I have no problem with criticism of any kind. I do expect it and especially expect it when using a calculation process. It only becomes an issue when (a) the same argument is repeated time and time again. We get it, now move on. (b) when the only argument they can come up with is to argue the basis for doing something and not the something itself. If there is a problem with the WHY then say it once and be done. If there is a problem with the WHAT then we have a discussion that actually can accomplish something.

    When I discuss a strategy that involves TIMING of a bet based on rolls, I get that the TIMING is DUE THEORY and many don't agree with that. That part is the WHY of the strategy. Then the bets themselves are the WHAT of the strategy. Place this, Buy that, Lay this, Hard Way there. It would be nice if players accepted that the WHY is only important to the player and the WHAT is the part that should have the majority of the attention. The actual bets or strategy are the WHAT.

    I love when I tell someone that I will bet the Don't Come until I have 2-3 bets on points, then periodically I throw down a Lay Bet on something. Now, this is not a bad strategy, different from some but similar to others. The problem comes when asked WHY I decided to make the lay bet when I did. I simply chose to make it because the average roll was 7 and this shooter rolled 9 times. For me, the 7 hitting is closer to 1 than 0 on the scale of probability. I may win or I may lose, but the fact is, the strategy happened regardless of rolls, the timing of the strategy is because of rolls.

    Each player will decide a moment to place any particular bet they want to bet. That is a personal decision that the player must be comfortable with. That decision is the WHY for every player. For some it is TIMING, others table feel, others, actions around them, other ETC. No real discussion will happen if players are only arguing about the why on when a player bets. Get to the heart of it and discuss the actual betting and strategy. (oh I forgot, if we do that, there is nothing to discuss since all bets are negative expectation and anyone who thinks differently is living with a fallacy of their own.)

    last, just as others have a right to criticize posts, those criticized have a right to criticize the criticism. Yes, I will post, and yes you will stand up shouting about how bad it is..... Now I will shout back that you have no real valuable critique. Funny though that you feel I should accept it instead of commenting back.... works both ways I think.
     
    #81
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  2. thecrazymr, Jul 4, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Have to disagree:
    The odds and therefore the probability of a 7 rolling are 1 out of 6 (6 out of 36)
    After 6 rolls, the 7 is behind 1 on average
    After 18 rolls, the 7 is behind 3 on average
    After 36 rolls, the 7 is behind 6 on average

    Now, these averages can be made up with several consecutive 7's rolled and the average may or not play out for several rolls or even several years. But the fact does remain that in time a 7 will roll. I am sure the next shooter would love the 7 never to roll during the rest of his/her vacation. But there is yet to be a roll that does not END with a 7-out. Given this fact, a player can justly assume a 7 is on it's way until you see that roll that goes forever. Armed with this FACT you know that a 7 is coming sometime between the first roll and the last roll of the shooter. That equates to the FACT that every roll that does not equal a 7 is one roll closer to that 7 roll. Likelihood is based on the sliding scale of 0 won't happen and 1 will happen. Knowing something will happen means that each time it don't you slide 1 notch closer to the 1 on the scale.

    The actual problem is nobody knows how far out the 1 is on the scale. There is something that players tracking a table can do to solve this part of the equation though. You can keep track of LONGEST no 7 rolls and use that for your 1 basis and move it out each time a longer roll happens. You will reach a point when you quit moving the 1 and all 7's then occur within your scale. From that, you can calculate until this number again changes.

    They don't defend the strategy (bets or betting sequence) with irrational concepts. They just strongly uphold their position on WHY they choose to place the bets WHEN they do. Maybe if the arguments focused on the bets instead of when they are placed they would not be so defensive. If I tell you I am making a Lay bet, you don't argue, but if I say WHEN I place that same bet I get asked WHY I make it then. Suddenly the WHY is the topic instead of the WHAT.
    • Placed it because I walked to the table
    • Placed it because the dice went off table
    • Placed it because TIMING
    • Placed it because felt it
    • Placed it because dealers changed
    • Placed it because new shooter
    • Placed it because WHO REALLY CARES (PLAYER CHOICE)
     
    #82
  3. basicstrategy777, Jul 4, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Each toss is an independent event.......all is random.......probability says the 7 will show once in six tosses............there have been 30 tosses and no 7 has appeared...........would it be a good bet to say the 7 will show in the next 5 tosses, or would random/independent rule and would what happened before not matter.

    If you had to bet 1000 dollars, which way would you bet ?..........a 7 will show in the next 5 tosses....or a 7 will not appear in the next 5 tosses. Don't give me the math answer....give me what you'd do.

    777
     
    #83
  4. Onautopilot, Jul 4, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I give up! If you believe that a number is "due" because it has not shown with-in X number of rolls, so be it. I do agree with you that why you place a bet is a "Who Really Cares" scenario.

    A quick refresher in the laws of probability might be in order though....just a thought.
     
    #84
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2015
  5. Onautopilot, Jul 4, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    People often times ask a question that they already have a "pat" answer for. You don't really care what I would do.
     
    #85
  6. betwthelines, Jul 4, 2015

    betwthelines

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    why so defensive? i clearly stated your ideas do no harm...

    if you dont care so much why, and, yes, your are right, it is a personal choice, then why even respond to it? and especially since,as you are also correct, that it doesnt matter why (never mind: dont answer that since obviously you DO care "why")...it is not a game of skill...grandma, who's never seen a bank craps layout in her life, can walk up to the rail, grandson says "try $20 for fun", bet on something--anything--and walk away with more money than you've made--or lost--all afternoon...

    notwithstanding i do think your point is valid that it can be edifying to discuss the what more so than the why, disagreement for why being a GIVEN...

    my only point was not to be overly disturbed by criticism on a public forum...maybe you were, maybe you werent (frankly i wasnt aware that i was being critical even but whatever...) but you did seem agitated about the constant repetition of the same old same old: well, this is also going to happen onna public forum and there is some rationale for it too: new lurkers enter all the time...but, as you find, constant repetition is ESPECIALLY MANIFEST onna CRAPS bored, where there is nothing new under the sun...tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
    #86
  7. KokomoJoe4, Jul 4, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Not to beat an old horse to death, but Due is what the game is based on: sevens show the most, twos and twelves the least.....Casinos base their financial lives on this. However, they also have enough plastic ammunition on hand to outgun any individual, regardless of his good fortune.

    It's a tough game and a tough opponent, but at times, any and nearly all players have some nice wins. You've got to get out ahead when things have gone your way, largely because what is due to happen will happen.
     
    #87
  8. Onautopilot, Jul 4, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I probably shouldn't mess with your "dead Horse", but casinos really don't base their financial life on the number of times any number is "Due" to roll. They instead, base it on paying you less than fair odds on any number you choose to bet on, house edge. Sorry, I know you know that, and probably what you meant. :)
     
    #88
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  9. basicstrategy777, Jul 5, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    And the fair odds are based on ?...............not when a number is due, but keeping their fingers crossed hoping the numbers somehow show up the way the heavens say they will show up.

    By some miracle, it just so happens the numbers show up as advertized each and every time for the last 1000 years............even though everything is independent and nothing is due. It's a miracle I tell ya.

    777
     
    #89
  10. betwthelines, Jul 5, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    lol...yerr-a riot! why fair odds based on the math, silly...LOL...let's see...hm...fair odds...let's see if we can bring it down to your level...ok. ok. i think i might have it...ok, ok...me and you we flippa fair coin, see (oh..oh...um...you do know whatta "fair" coin is, right? yes, yes that's right: one with an exactly fifty-fifty chance of coming up heads and the same for coming up tails)...ok, ok, so we flippa fair coin, see, and if it comes up tails i agree to give you a dollar...and if it comes up heads, you agree to give me a dollar...we are here paying "fair" odds to each other...

    now iffa casino had sucha coin flip game if you put uppa dollar, and you called heads and it came up heads, why they would pay you only 95 cents, see? this is called "less than fair odds" and is what 'pilot meant when he said casinos "base (their financial future) on paying you less than fair odds on any number you choose to bet on"

    next time we will extend this incredibly complex principle to bets on the bank craps layout...but for now, see if you can grasp this brain-bending concept of "fair pay" from the coin flip story, and come, along with your fourth grade math
    book, for lesson 2: Fair Odds On The, Colorful, Complicated-Looking Bank Craps Layout
    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
    -g. geist: yer a real shitass, you know that, dont you?
    --tom p: right, right...
     
    #90
  11. thecrazymr, Jul 5, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Just my opinion, but this type of scenario is what destroys players using "Due Theory" for more practical applications. There is not even a bet on the table that says 7 in NEXT 5 ROLLS.....

    Now, given the same situation and applying it to a practical bet that is on the layout. I WOULD make my standard bet of say LAY the 5...... How many rolls it takes to achieve a win or loss really does not come into play. Making a bet not in your own strategy does not come into play. Choosing THIS POINT IN TIME based on the idea that the 7 might show soon, TO MAKE YOUR STANDARD STRATEGY play is all that really would be happening. Hell, given how many rolls it has been, I might use that same idea to alter my standard bet from the 5 to either the 6 or 8 instead.

    Now this standard bet is going to win on 7 and lose on point where the Lay bet is placed if the number rolls. It will not lose after 5 rolls and it does not bet the 7 will appear within a specific number of rolls. Betting a number will roll within X rolls goes back to what I said earlier, it should not be used for being PRCISE in trying to PREDICT when something will happen. And just because a number SHOULD come soon, does not mean that the number that will make your bet lose, won't come before it.

    Of course, if I was limited to the 2 bets you suggested earlier, 7 will or will not roll within next 5 rolls, I would simply walk away and not make a bet. Another option a player has if there is not a bet they are willing to make, and this is one that is to precise and predictive for me to make even using DUE THEORY.

    I stand strongly behind the THEORY that numbers roll within a range of attempts, yet even so, I would only use this THEORY to make strategy bets that I normally would bet. The choosing of WHEN I make these bets is really the only practical application I can see for it. Of course I would also use it on a novelty bet if the bet was insignificant to my normal betting. If I am a $100 bettor and you offer this as a side bet for say $5 then once in a while I might agree to such a bet. Then I would bet on the 7 showing...... and if I lost a few times, I might alter to the 7 not showing because the dice may not like the 7 and that could account for the length of the roll.
     
    #91
  12. thecrazymr, Jul 5, 2015

    thecrazymr

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    OOPS...... thread has been hijacked.... sorry about that, "Due Theory" discussion taking over a thread about streaks. These things take on a life of their own.
     
    #92
  13. thecrazymr, Jul 5, 2015

    thecrazymr

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    Getting back to streaks, they are another form of using DUE THEORY.
    When players bet based on a winning streak, or a table trend, they usually bet that the streak or trend will continue. WHY? If the next roll is random, the streak or trend could have ended on that last roll. Yet they base their decision on it continuing.

    Betting the trend is betting that the numbers are due to hit more often than the 7 because they have been during your session. And players will continue to bet these bets based off of past results. Yet they won't consider this betting mentality the same as saying the trend must end sometime so I will bet against the trend. Betting for or against does not matter. The fact remains that either way, a mental basis is being used to determine your bet because of PRIOR outcomes.

    Trends will continue ..... Trends will end...... 2 sides of the same coin.
    Both sides are right and wrong.
     
    #93
  14. basicstrategy777, Jul 5, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    BTL, so, fair odds are based on the math..........OAP said...."casinos really don't base their financial life on the number of times any number is"Due" to roll." .........but OAP is wrong again, I'm afraid....OF COURSE casino's base their financial life on how often the math says a number is Due. And the math says a 7 is Due to roll 1 in 6. And it does.

    Due= "expected to happen"
    Math = Due

    Crazy.......I can make a 3 way 7 bet on the next 5 rolls. It would be a good bet because the math says the odds of rolling a 7, if no 7 has been rolled in 30 rolls, is well over 97 %. Tha's what the math says.

    No one answered my question because it would be thinking out of the box and even worse....it would give the gamblers fallacy life. I believe, if confronted with having to make that bet, most people would make that bet because they felt the 7 was DUE.

    IMHO.

    777
     
    #94
  15. Onautopilot, Jul 5, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Your proffer here is so convoluted that it boggles the mind.....I'm speechless, and that doesn't happen but on very rare occasions!
     
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  16. Onautopilot, Jul 5, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I would not argue with you on your view of streaks, or due theory. I agree that many players, myself included, select bets based on "something else", and not expectation, we wouldn't play if that were not the case. Good luck being the something else in most cases. You and I both know that each roll is totally independent and reflects nothing about the past rolls, what you are talking about is a "cumulative probabilities" view of the game.

    The problem with using cumulative probabilities in making betting decisions, it is always a before the fact view. Once the game starts to unfold, that view changes by necessity. I bet a "due" type strategy when I use a Martingale type progression, and it is based on a cumulative probability before the fact view. Once the game begins, that view is no longer valid, after each decision, I must recalculate the odds of success or failure. Just as in a streak....the dice have passed 5 times in a row, will the streak continue, or end...it's about a 50/50 proposition, the past 5 passes are nothing but history, just as all past decisions are.

    Like you say, selecting what to bet, based on prior outcomes, is normal thought. But, those prior out comes also involve more than the past dice rolls, those decisions involve money won or lost on those rolls, time constraints and other influences, not just the physical dice roll. You maintain that you want to separate the "why" and "what" part of betting....I don't believe you ever can.

    But I "due" agree with you, the past definitely influences our decision in the here and now! :)
     
    #96
  17. Grizzoola, Jul 5, 2015

    Grizzoola

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    The healthiest thing I think a craps player should do (other than not playing, at all), is have a win goal & loss limit. One's financial position is good/bad only after the last roll. The question always is, "Should I keep going, or not?" A win goal/loss limit is a sure indicator. If you ignore those, then you become a true gambler and reap the consequences, either way.

    IOW, it's not so much about what is "due." It's about your stake in relation to what you have won or have lost in this session. No, the past cannot predict the future; it's only where you stand in the present.
     
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  18. thecrazymr, Jul 6, 2015

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Loss limit is easy, not hard to say, X dollars and I'm outa here. Win goals on the other hand, that is not so simple. Many players also enjoy the act of playing. Table time must be calculated into the equation and money lost calculated for the entertainment value of the expense. Don't care if I am up over ten times my goal, if the timeframe is short. Now, I would be playing for table time and the enjoyment of the game. You have to consider that many players are on vacation and would enjoy their time more if they get to engage in the activities they enjoy without stopping because they are UP.

    What is a difference between a gambler and a "True Gambler"?

    Your right, its not about what is due..... it is about your bets and if they have won or lost in your session. Its not about what bets you played, but if you were lucky enough to make that bet at the right time. Its not about winning more often than losing, but about winning more money than you lose.

    This game is all about LUCK and timing. All a player can do is what they think is correct at the time to "CREATE THEIR OWN LUCK".
     
    #98
  19. Grizzoola, Jul 6, 2015

    Grizzoola

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    I know whereof you speak, as on my trips, I like to spend as much time at the table as possible. But, if I have that kind of time, after hitting my modest win goal after, say, only 20-30 min., I feel it's best to walk away, savor the win for the session & come back later for another. Of course, when I hit my loss limit, I have no choice.

    I see players who press, parlay, etc., as true gamblers who are trying to beat the odds, hoping their luck holds out. I'm not a true gambler, as I like to stick w/ my same bets, hoping the dice will work out for me according to the math. For me, just keeping my bets up after several rolls into the hand is gambling enough.

    For me, the next roll is a potential seven; that's how I look at it & am not a true gambler, just someone who enjoys playing the game. Maybe I'm lazy, but I've seen too many times, just when to increase my bets or take them down, the roll goes the other way.

    I wonder how this is possible. The dice roll how they'll roll. Since I can't outguess what they'll do, I'll bet as I do, but for you true gamblers, have at it.
     
    #99
  20. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 7, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Over 97%. That is what I will stipulate without checking that the math says: a seven should roll at least once in 97 of every 100 sets of 35 rolls. We have just observed 30 non-seven rolls. Does this mean anything to us?

    Due theorists say, "Yes, the seven is due! It has not appeared as often as the math says it should, so it probably will now appear more often to make up for the difference. If it doesn't then the math is wrong, and I know the math is right. Therefore, I will divide my current stake by 3*5=15 and hop the sevens. My risk of ruin is less than 3%."

    Trend followers say, "Yes, the Perfect 36 distribution is not in effect here and now! According to the math, which I know is right, I should have seen 5 sevens in the last 30 rolls. I didn't see any, therefore something must be suppressing them, so I will go all in with place/buy bets on all the numbers for the next five rolls. I have a 1-((5/6)^30)*100=99.998% chance of winning."

    Pure mathematicians say, "No, which is why I'm not playing a game the math says I can't win. Therefore I will continue just recording rolls so people will think I'm intelligent."
     
    #100