What the hell is going on on this Forum?

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by NewrollerFB, Aug 13, 2015.

  1. TDVegas, Aug 15, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Whether you played basketball, tennis, hockey or any sport that requires a constant pounding on the joints where bones connect...you know full well how they degrade over age. I can still hit the ball as hard, I still possess the hand eye stuff, the mind works on the court...it's the knees, the knees, the knees. Golf is a good alternative. Clay or Har-tru courts help for tennis. When you are in your 20's, it's tough to comprehend what people mean when they say "my knees have slowed me down"...I never understood what the problems was. Once you hit 30-35, the constant pounding on the joints has reared its ugly head and you know what the problem is.
     
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  2. superrick, Aug 15, 2015

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Oh, the price we pay to have fun, when I was in the Army it was jumping out of planes, then after that it was for dirt-biking, I never thought about getting older and have been paying the price, but I keep in shape by walking in the desert, hunting for gold and meteorites. There is nothing like taking a long walk in plus 100 degrees weather.

    But with that said I couldn't imagine playing tennis on an asphalt court in the summertime down in Fla. Or even out here! I don't see how you don't get heat stroke!

    Not all of us are fat and can't get around, we don't need to sit at the tables nor do we need help to get there. I eat in a buffet every Tuesday night with our Corvette club, but will only eat one plate that has very little on it. Hopefully eating sensibly and not putting on the weight will keep us around for a while!
     
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  3. Dave G Ct, Aug 15, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    SR
    Any particular kind of cinnamon?
     
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  4. superrick, Aug 15, 2015

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Dave, I buy the Ceylon type, which I can buy in our bulk food section of our grocery store, one pound at a time. They carry two types there and the Ceylon is the most expensive one! I buy honey in 5 lb jugs, buying 3 at a time when it's on sale. I just hate going to the store where we buy it at! I'm not into grocery stores.

    My wife figured it out a long time that if she gets me to go shopping with her I pay for everything instead of it coming out of her household money. So it's always honey will you take me to the grocery store, imagine that!
     
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  5. SevenOut, Aug 15, 2015

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    I have risen, again, from the Dead Craps Player's Forum.

    Gentleman. This Forum is the BEST SITE for those "willing" to tune their Craps game that fits their personality. Myself, a practicing Dice Chucker. My style, game plan and personality have nothing to do with YOUR sense of Craps action. No matter how much anyone wants to force me to play their game, I will listen, but not discard the basics of Craps UNLESS I can test any new information or ideas.

    Unless Craps Tables changed the layout, dice or payoffs, nothing has changed.

    Your Craps Game and Strategy had better have:

    -A tested System.
    -A Bankroll for a stop loss.
    -Maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses by limiting your Bankroll.

    TDVegas seems to be catching some unwarranted heat from fellow players. I see others who have been on the Forum long enough to know more about Craps than most of the rest of you.

    Listen. Bite your tongue... a bit. Then jump into the conversation with hard hitting facts and not... rhetoric. I have no problem kicking anyone in the nuts when there is no basis to the information. I will take it when I am wrong. Which is not often.

    There are lots of Pussies who stand at a Craps Table and blame the shooter, the table, the dice are out of balance, how the shooter is shooting, etc. Suck it up when you lose and chances are... you did everything right and the dice did it better.

    If YOU are a Craps Vegetarian... you are on the wrong Forum. These guys that have been Forum Members the longest, are meat eaters and if you do not know what you are doing, they will devour you. Usually head first without hesitation and crap you out with a flushing sound following you down the pipeline.

    Lets get back to business. I, like many of you, was sick of the name calling and those trying to suck the life out of this Forum. It is the diverse number of Craps Players that make this worth stepping into a second revival. You want to play nasty? What is your game? If you have a solid game... defend it with FACTS. No one can beat Craps all of the time, but give some us a run and we will bring home the "bacon".
     
    #85
  6. KokomoJoe4, Aug 15, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Welcome back Seven Out. Good Lord willing, figured we would hear from you again, and didn't think it would be so long.
     
    #86
  7. Dave G Ct, Aug 15, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    SevenOut
    Glad you returned. Saw some of your old posts before I came aboard. I am a DI but was a winner before using inside regression. However TD will be dealt with when he resorts to belittling players calling them liars etc. Have no problem with TD if he argues his point.
     
    #87
  8. betwthelines, Aug 15, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    while i realize addressed to them and dont pretend to speak for tdv nor tt123, and as i write this, i have not yet read the over-two- pages remainder of this thread but i have a simple answer and feel moved to reply to gargoil's question anyway...

    i have posted some of my honestly--and very conservatively-- tracked numbers on this forum before...further i have stated that results at the local joint, tracked since craps opened there in 2003, are so bad that i am too ashamed and embarrassed to, at least not yet, post them...
    ...however when i was 5 years and 1 month into it--never mind 1 or 3 years--and after 3,151 hours of play, i was still ahead (+$100) overall and with a zenith of +$10,900 after almost exactly 3 years and 1,761 hours of play...

    for "non local" play, 94 "trips", tracked since 2001, i am still ahead +$1,900 after 14 years...
    simple answer: i attribute this "positive variance" to good luck, nothing more, nothing less....the local results to (very) bad luck...

    you cannot expect to win but you can win...all it takes is better than average luck and if you play tough, only slightly better than average luck...

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
    #88
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  9. betwthelines, Aug 15, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    EXACTLY!!!

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

     
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  10. betwthelines, Aug 16, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    my first million Tough Craps practice rolls begun in 1974, initially with vegas dice rolled into a felt-lined box (and care taken to insure randomness [dice shaken, not looked at, etc]), later using wincraps; it is mostly wincraps:
    1,000,051 rolls
    + $21,181​
    you cannot expect to win but you can win

    a math whiz on the old, craps usenet bored stated that approximately 12% of players using pass with (just) 2x odds would be ahead after a million rolls...even though my own very first million roll trial showed winnings, i found the 12% figure to be surprisingly high...goatcabin, a poster for over a decade on craps forums, a much missed participant on this bored and respected craps math dabbler told me in a PM that he thinks the figure is closer to 5%, which does sound a little more realistic to me...

    anyway the point is you CAN win, even over a lifetime of craps...math guys often state erroneously that the math "says" you cant win over "the long term"...what they usually mean is that you cant "expect" to win and just forget to add the "expect" word or else they mean only the mathematical "long term", which i struggle to understand means anything other than infinity but in the vernacular "long term" (however the context defines this: "lifetime" being the most apt IMO) SOME will win...indeed the "math says" that some are expected to win over a lifetime of craps...

    HOWEVER one does need to play tough or relatively tough in order for this to happen...if i am not mistaken, our usenet math whiz also asserted that if placing all the numbers across for a million rolls, very close to ZERO PERCENT would be expected to be ahead (results were slightly better if placing just the 6/8)...

    You cannot EXPECT to win...But you CAN play tough


    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p




     
    #90
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  11. Dave G Ct, Aug 16, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Great post! I believe with smart 6&8 play or smart inside play you can be ahead.Of course when these math models are set up they CV just focus on that particular bet. Money management moves are never factored in which can make all the difference in the world.So your post rings true.
     
    #91
  12. KokomoJoe4, Aug 16, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Given the numbers used to calculate the 1.41 and 1.40 house edge from either direction, the non-craps playing math types will be able to "prove mathematically" that it is impossible to win at the game at some point around the 1 million decision mark. (if "anything is possible" comes into play, wonder if they would concede that the single winner would be a DI?)

    It is only the effect of variance, as introduced by the use of odds, which expands the tails of the Gaussian curves, where the big winners and the big losers reside. The bigger the odds relative to the flat bet, the more possible is excessive variability from expectation.

    In this sense, NOTHING but odds comes into play. Although the placed six and eight are not bad bets, they certainly are not good when viewed through the statistical lens.While there will be variance, its effect on overall play is minimal with respect to placed bets as compared to the effect of "odds".

    Math shows the game is very difficult to beat. Difficult but not impossible. How the player chooses to play seems to be very important.

    The great majority of "regular" players seem to rely predominantly on placed bets. Although I'm guessing here, it seems this might be the case because their number(s) placed "only need to hit once to win." What about when four numbers are placed but only zero, one, two or three show before another number does?
     
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  13. Dave G Ct, Aug 16, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Koko -: The math formulas do not take into consideration taking your bets down or throwing let' s say a regression after 3 flat bets locking up a decent profit.many intangibles. Your Pirates playing tough in NY
     
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  14. KokomoJoe4, Aug 16, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    you are correct Dave they do not. However, doing such relies entirely on "chance" which is defined by math and by the 5/6, 2/3 and 1/2 odds against any placed point vs. the seven out. I would agree that IF you have at least the minimal number of hits necessary to assure a win with respect to all numbers you have placed, and IF you take enough down to ensure that a seven at the wrong time still has you ahead, then you are golden. Problem is the seven showing when everything is 'on' and you have not won enough to cover your placements.

    Pirates paying well enough to win, but our managerial skills, or lack there of, keep allowing the opponent to get back into a game which we should already have won. Both games vs. the Mets have gone from decent leads to extra inning lucky wins because Hurdle doesn't get the starter out quickly enough. He has a good to great bullpen and he knows this, yet he lets the starter in for one or two batters too long.

    With a bit of luck, I think the Bucs can win it all. They have two starting pitcher studs in AAA. Unfortunately the best one, Jameson Taillon won't be up this year because of multiple injuries/surgeries. Not sure why the other, Tyler Glasnow, isn't up to the big leagues already. Cole and Liriano are studs, if/when AJ Burnett comes back from injury he is also a good one, but Morton and Locke have you sweating from the start almost every time they pitch. Morton pitched very well yesterday, but this is few and far between.

    Will be an interesting finish to the season. Cards, Cubs and Mets all look good, Giants and Dodgers are always a threat.
     
    #94
  15. Dave G Ct, Aug 16, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Your team always shows up for the playoffs. Offense has always been a problem for you. Your starting pitching has been solid and your closer has surpassed expectation. Only 2 teams can throw shutdown starters- LA & Mets. Then again the Cards may " steal" another one. In the other league NY- Toronto- KC are strong.
     
    #95
  16. KokomoJoe4, Aug 16, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    where is betwthelines? He loves this topic.

    I think the Angels, Astros, Rangers and maybe the Orioles can also make some noise in the AL, although you gotta like the Royals and Blue Jays chances the best. Cueto is phenomenal, as are Price and Hamels. Teams they pitch for have got to be among the favorites.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 25, 2015
  17. betwthelines, Aug 16, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    Not really correct. "money management" is a non-factor in terms of long term amounts won or lost...the (probability mathematics) law of large numbers , plain and simple swamps any management efforts...It's All One Big Session. And Then You Die...also in a way, "money management" suggests "timing", which is nothing more than another word for "luck"..

    DO NOT MISUNDERSTAND: "money management" is HUGELY IMPORTANT in terms of monetary and (perhaps especially) emotional UTILITY...
    This is false. "at some point", unless i am missing something---and i do admit to being practically illiterate as to the "actual" math but somewhat less so to the theories---would be infinity, which is not real in terms of a lifetime---hell, everybody's lifetime ever---of craps...no real math type would even attempt to "prove" impossibility at the million roll mark...

    huh? variance or variability or departure from expectation or whatever the hell the correct term is, is part and parcel of randomness and therefore at least implicit in probability theory (albeit with no mathematical predictive value)...it is not "introduced" by odds nor anything else: it simply "is" in randomness itself...
    again. no. variability is a GIVEN...it can be weird...it can be surprising...it can be hot...it can be cold...it can be choppy...it can be "excessive" but it has nothing to do with whether you are betting the hard eight or odds...now, koko, i "think" i know what you "mean" but you are deriving it from false premises...you mean betting outcomes or actual results, i think, and not variability...

    well, once again, odds certainly give better results but are not at all the only thing that comes into play
    your "guess" is correct for the reasoning behind why some place bettors bet as they do but never mind that that rationale is beyond ridiculous and results from the severe, though certainly common, error of conflating place bets with pass/come bets...they are significantly different bets in very important ways, not to mention that in the game of craps you NEVER, EVER need to hit a number more than one time once you have money on it...aunt tillie breezing past the craps table on her way to the bathroom hears "8, easy 8" while finishing her duty, walks over to the rail, throws a red and white to the dealer and says "6 dollar eight"...8 has just rolled, but she doesnt need to hit it "twice" to win...ridiculous

    guys, forgive my compulsiveness...i cant seem to help my severe anality when it comes to "clarity"

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
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  18. gargoil, Aug 16, 2015

    gargoil

    gargoil Member

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    That's your answer? I have a high positive variance because I get lucky? Really? Nothing to do with my DI skills or anything else?
    Okay I am the kind of a guy that black cats are afraid of crossing my paths, open ladders close when they see me coming, mirrors crack wide open at the hint of my name but yet you attribute my winning variance to luck...
    I guess you could say I am lucky when it comes to DI since I do it very well.
     
    #98
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  19. Dave G Ct, Aug 16, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Koko
    The test for your team comes when they face a shutdown pitcher like a Kershaw or tonight in the" dark prince" Harvey.
     
    #99
  20. betwthelines, Aug 16, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    Correct.

    I have showed you my (unfortunately past) winnings over a lengthy period of time (3,171 hours of Tough Craps play) --- even some after over a MILLION practice rolls --- and i have showed you, well, ok, ahem, at least an idea of my losses...and i can assure you that in over 41 years at the rail, many times in the presence of adamant DIers, that i have perceived nothing but random rolls...

    Absolutely, you can get lucky. you can win at this game, even win over a lifetime...

    ...i am bummed that i am not winning...but i am most certainly and sincerely happy for you that you are!

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
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