Which Don't method is Best?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by KokomoJoe4, Sep 1, 2019.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Sep 1, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I have heard it said that it is easy to convert a Don't player to the Do, but nearly impossible to turn a Do player into a Don'ter.

    While it is true that a player should play however he wants to, it is also good to have a lot of methods of play available, at least for a rainy day.

    I have never been much for playing the Don't, primarily because I play craps with a primary goal of a win, no make that a big win, no make that a huge win. Unless you are betting huge playing the Don't you aren't going to win big. Why? Because the best you are going to get paid for your winner is even money. If you want to lay the odds in order to maximize amount won on the seven out, you are going to risk quite a bit more than you are going to win, especially if you are laying maximum odds. Those come back will kill you there if too many of them happen.

    When seeking advice on the Don't, the best person to get it from is someone who has played that way and has had success doing so. The Dice Doctor Sam Grafstein springs to mind.

    For those of you who have not read his book, I will list two of his favorite methods on the Don't, one he calls True Count, the other Fast Action. First, there are few things Sam insists upon with any Don't method of play: He says you must incorporate stop/loss methods into the scheme. The first of these is most important - Never chase losses. What this means is that if you have out a DP and the shooter hits a natural, you are done until the next shooter. If you are trying to get multiple bets out behind different numbers,a come out Yo loser has you stop placing any more bets = stop loss. Sam does not have you pick up your established Don't bets when the shooter knocks you off of one number, since these numbers already behind a box number are favored to win.

    For True Count, you must keep track of your betting stake, and it involves laying odds. Sam doesn't care for anything EXCEPT single odds for the DO player, but he favors any and all odds on the Don't, even maximum odds, if you can afford to do so. The why? is simple - once behind a number, you are the 2:1, 3:2 or 6:5 favorite to win the bet.

    To figure out your betting stake, you multiple your basic line bet x 6, to allow for getting behind all six numbers, if it happens. To (bet x 6) you add the amount needed to lay proper odds on each of the six box numbers. For the example I will show below, let's assume we we lay double odds.

    For this play, our stake is ($10 x 6) + $(40 + 30 + 24 + 24 + 30 + 40) = $248

    Since our base bet is $10 and since we are laying double odds, double odds means we need to risk (lay) whatever amount of money is needed on that number to win us double our flat bet on each number - that is, whatever is needed to win $20 in odds on that number. So we lay $40 to win $20 on the 4 and 10, lay $30 to win $20 on the 5 and 9, and lay $24 to win $20 on the 6 and 8.

    How to play True Count? Go out on the DP or DC for $10. Parlay any and every come out craps winner, even if your $10 has turned into $80 - no limit to the size of the skyscraper. If this bet now goes behind a number, lay double odds. Even if you don't have enough money left to lay odds, lay as much as remains in your betting stake, since you are already behind a number and are favored to win. In this example, let's say a 5 came out. With $80 on the line, we are looking for a $160 winner on our odds bet, so we would need to lay $240 behind the $80. Since our stake was only $248, and since we used $10 of this on the line bet, we have only $238 left, so we lay the entire $238 to win $238 x (2/3) = $158.67, but if we win, they'll only give us $158. :(

    Assuming the more likely, that we do not get multiple craps come out winners, you continue to make DC bets and laying double odds until there is a repeat of a number we are already behind, or until a loser Yo rolls. Both of these situations are part of the built in stop/loss. If the shooter rolls a seven, the current line bet loses but all established bets win, and it's on to the next shooter.

    Although very unlikely, it is possible and we do have enough betting stake to get behind all six numbers as the favorite. That would be a great time for the seven to show, no?

    Will do Fast action later if there is any interest.
     
    #1
  2. TDVegas, Sep 1, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Don't is a grind....

    I like the pass side because I believe it is easier to string together many pass side winners in a row.

    In effect, you can get a run of winners. If one parlays....even better.

    Don’t side is a choppy mix....usually winners are broken up by comeout 7/11 winners (losers on the don’t).

    Don’t side is a grind game. Pass line can also be a grind....but most definitely don’t pass/odds is a grind play.

    If you aren’t betting large from the getgo....don’t expect much either way. Win or lose. Others may have a different experience with dark side.
     
    #2
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2019
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  3. Chip Magnet, Sep 2, 2019

    Chip Magnet

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    Another sure loser from the quack dice doctor. Better simulate that strategy before you play it.

    The more Don’ts you have working, the greater the ratio of losing combinations to winning ones. You are not the favorite when you are behind all six numbers. Or even two. Odds are 4 to 1 against winning all six, with 24 losing dice combinations vs. 6 winning ones.
     
    #3
  4. KokomoJoe4, Sep 2, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I appreciate statistical mathematics and recognize the certainty of the central limit theorem, but you simulate, I'll play. Congratulations for winning thousands of hypothetical dollars at the cost of some portion of the time left in your life.

    All craps methods are statistical losers. There is always house edge. This means we play at a disadvantage. This is why it is called gambling.

    The two major attractions of the Don't are these: (1) Once through the come out phase and behind a number, the player is the favorite, not the house. (2) When using multiple wagers, they can NOT all be lost on one roll of the dice, and they can all be won on one roll.

    Success and failure all depend on the timing of the sevens, just as they do with any chosen method of play.

    So Sam is a quack? Are we to assume the Magnet has a better way to play?

    I will gladly repay you Tuesday if I may borrow a hypothetical dollar to buy a hamburger today.
     
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  5. Chip Magnet, Sep 2, 2019

    Chip Magnet

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    They cannot all be lost on one roll of the dice, but when there are more ways to lose than to win, they are more probable to get picked off one at a time.

    Even with only the 6 and 8 behind, there are ten losing combinations vs only 6 winning ones. Lose just one of those bets with odds, and you can't win the hand. Replace it with another bet, and you are still at a disadvantage.

    Don't believe me?. Play the quacks strategy for a couple sessions and let us know how it worked out.

    Of course I do. Been playing it for years. Played it last week. Will play it again next week in Pa. Doesn't always win of course, but my risk of ruin is far less, with good upside potential. See my May 12, 2018 posts.
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Sep 2, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    A graph of "hypothetical" bankroll vs. number of dice rolls, and a table of so-called bankroll, complete with available hypothetical money with more available from an ATM, showing hypothetical amount invested, hypothetical amount won, and current hypothetical bankroll?

    Also on the table, but unavailable for viewing, are other tabs such as checks/dice, comps, bets, payoffs, probability and avantage?

    This is all hypothetical bullshit. Anyone can put up "results" obtained playing craps, and hypothetical results can and will be considerably better than typical results actually obtained.

    My ONLY bitch with your critique of Sam is that you claim to have a better method of play. Regarding this, I ask only, what is your method of play?

    I do not want to see how much you hypothetically win with your method of play, simply, what is your play? All that has been stated about it is that apparently, no quackery is involved.
     
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  7. Mssthis1, Sep 2, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Koko gets a bingo! No matter how you play it all boils down to the timing of the sevens and in an individual session anything can happen as far as the timing of the sevens.
     
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  8. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 2, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I submit you have answered your own question, if a question there was. When the dice are rolling the action comes fast and furious; when the dice turn to ice there are interruptions as the dealers clean up the losers, players reset teir bets, and the dice are passed to the next shooter. Front siders tend to be "action junkies", present company being an obvious exception :rolleyes:, while dark-siders, like good poker players, don't mind waiting for their rewards.

    One aspect of converting from the front to the back side yet to be mentioned is the need to retool winning progressions for odds. Front side bets w/odds can be progressed by some constant percentage (e.g. 50%) or multiple (e.g. add 1 unit) to ensure a profit for the series after some desired number of wins. Of course the same technique can can be used on the dark side, but the increment must be adjusted for the odds because you are putting up the long end of them.

    BTW I limit my exposure to getting behind only four numbers. I also part company with The Dice Doctor by laying only single odds (except when making a quantum leap in my progression). If you keep some of a series bankroll in reserve when going behind multiple numbers, if some of your numbers get picked off you can increase your odds on the remaining ones, which are favorites to win as has been noted, to give yourself a shot at still showing a profit.
    Whether you believe in DI or not you absolutely must be aware that a shooter can get "hot" and be ready either to abandon ship or batten down the hatches during a storm. I have seen many a wrong-sider chase a hand and have hours of profit evaporate in minutes.
     
    #8
  9. KokomoJoe4, Sep 6, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    Tentatively planning on finishing early and a trip into the casino before heading home.

    With my first Pass or Come loser, I'm going to use a $248 stake and give Sam's True Count a second try. Only other time I used it was last time in Vegas, when, after getting close to 3K ahead, started to lose every session, including the only time I've played TC.

    I'll let you know how it went, but hope I don't have to use it. Maybe will get on a streak of the good kind right out of the gate.
     
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  10. Neverquit, Sep 10, 2019

    Neverquit

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    KKJ, in you first post here you noted : "Will do Fast action later if there is any interest." Ok, I am interested. What is fast action?
     
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  11. Neverquit, Sep 10, 2019

    Neverquit

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    Ok, just reread and it apples to on of the two methods of betting From Sam's book
     
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  12. twodicebilly, Sep 10, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    koko

    Brother and I hit the lake in Minnesota this weekend, caught 200 perch
    and have enough for fish day at hunting camp.
    The new casino there was nice enough to pay for it Saturday night.

    TDB
     
    #12
  13. KokomoJoe4, Sep 10, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    It's a zoo at the office today If I ever get home, I put it up after I lift weights, eat and walk the pug.

    It is Sam's most aggressive Don't method, and I think you might like it.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
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  14. KokomoJoe4, Sep 10, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    OK Neverquit, had to find the book, because I remembered Sam built a pretty aggressive progression into Fast Action, but didn't have a clue what it was.

    LOL, he doesn't really even describe the method of play too clearly, so I'll give it a try. Should say up front I have never even tried this play, but I do recall Sam saying it is his most aggressive Don't play.

    Unlike with True Count, Fast Action doesn't even plan to get behind all six box numbers, only 3 max. Same stop/loss rules with all of Sam's Don't methods, which say no more bets after a shooter loses a bet for you.

    With Fast Action, here's how you figure out your stake. First decide on your base line bet and odds to lay. Let's start at $5 and double odds. Since FA plans on getting behind a maximum of three numbers (assuming stop/loss doesn't shut you down), and since you don't know in advance which 3 numbers you might get behind, you have to calculate your betting stake by assuming it will the 3 numbers that will cost you the most in odds to be laid - 2 outside numbers and 1 odd number.

    For a $5 flat bet playing double odds, a single stake will be flats: $5 x 3 = $15, plus odds: $20 + $20 + $15 = $55.. So a single betting stake in this example is $70.

    Since Fast action is structured for SIX betting stakes, buy-in is 6 x $70 = $420. (Too rich for my blood, should have stuck with single odds, but Sam insists using as high of odds as possible on the Don't since once behind a number, you are favored). This seems logical to both Spock and me. You need to keep your six stakes separated. You don't dig into the next stake on this shooter.

    OK, finally, the book shows that his progressive increase as you play FA is as follows: $5, $7. $10, $15, $25, $35...........Now the tricky part, your success with an individual shooter defines whether or not you increase the flat bet from the minimum, and it doesn't even need to be much success. If you win at least one bet on the shooter at hand, you are to increase to the next flat level on the next shooter, so obviously you can still have lost money on the shooter by winning only one bet and losing two, but Sam still has you progressing up to the next flat level.

    Now here is what I don't understand, and Sam doesn't even address it, LOL. By increasing your flat bets, you obviously do not have enough in your betting stake to fully cover laying double odds for your larger flat bets.

    OK, so we will do what Sam says to do when you are playing wrong, get every dollar you have in the current stake out onto the table. I would NEVER consider this good advice when playing craps, but I'm not a Don'ter either. On the Don'ts, your established bets are ALWAYS favored, so I guess this is good advice.

    Might be difficult to keep your stakes separated, but we do have two fairly long rails in front of us, and we might also have some pockets to use, if necessary.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
  15. twodicebilly, Sep 11, 2019

    twodicebilly

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    Koko

    When playing the donts, the biggest question I have seen answered
    improperly is when to play the donts and when to stop playing them.

    You and I have both seen right way guys come to the table and bet a lot and in a short
    period of time they are broke and pissed and leave saying " why cant we find a decent
    shooter"
    We have also see donts player play into a table that is doing well or continuing to play
    the donts against a very hot shooter.

    The answer is certainly that a smart player decides upon his play after he evaluates
    the condition he finds when he starts playing. No one is good enough, or has a plan
    fool proof enough to dictate to the table what is going to happen.

    TDB
     
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  16. TDVegas, Sep 11, 2019

    TDVegas

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    As KKJ believes the game is random, the tossing of the 2 dice is random (his belief...and others)....then there is no “proper” or “improper” time to bet with or against the shooter....other than out of sheer superstition. Loss limits would also potentially apply to quitting.

    The only time the term “smart player” would come into play is ONLY if he believes what he’s seeing is NOT the result of a random roll. That just doesn’t jibe with the belief that a player (deep down) believes craps is a random game....again, beyond superstition, which actually might cause a player to “go with the flow”.

    This would not apply to someone who believes in DI and believes he can spot that player.

    Using terms such as “proper” or “improper” as it relates to the debated subject of DI is only self applicable and cannot be applied to believers that craps is a random game.

    Superstition works, not right or wrong, proper or improper....at least for them.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
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  17. twodicebilly, Sep 11, 2019

    twodicebilly

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    tdv

    You and KK have every right to believe the game is 100% random, but
    that does not dictate the feeling and play of many others.

    TDB
     
    #17
  18. TDVegas, Sep 11, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Correct...which is why I said this...
    I only noted your response to him because you seemed to suggest a “proper” or “improper” (your words) way to play future outcomes. If it was only intended for DI belief....OK.

    In the random belief world that wording would not apply. In the DI belief world (or yours) it could or would (might) apply if one can spot something that gives them a “window” into future outcomes.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
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  19. KokomoJoe4, Sep 11, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    Exactly right TDB, I also see this all the time. The Do player putting out bet after losing bet, not changing much, if at all.

    Guys on the Don't tend to be a little less crazy, not chasing losers as badly as the typical Do player.

    I agree with you - we all need to have "other" methods of play available, when our usual play is not worth repeating.

    I have always believed dice results to be random, but in spite of this, I KNOW that craps is a game of streaks, both good and bad. When the dice are going around the table like the herpes virus at a whorehouse, it's time to ride that streak on the Don'ts, don't you think?
     
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  20. TDVegas, Sep 11, 2019

    TDVegas

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    I’m not arguing against going with the flow or streak. It’s a great feeling to see winner after winner as opposed to stopping or taking bets down....or god forbid, suddenly betting the other way.

    Human nature to want to ride a streak.
     
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