Why Max Odds Bets?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Grizzoola, Jan 23, 2014.

  1. Grizzoola, Jan 23, 2014

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    Odds bets can be sucker bets as much as the Prop bets. I can't understand why so many on this forum are so concerned about max odds. Yes, they have no HA, but if your numbers don't hit, what good are they? Any more than the Prop bets? All I'm saying is you must be as cautious about how much you're betting with odds as the Prop bets. It all depends on how much you have on the table in relation to your bankroll.
     
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  2. cf410

    cf410 Member

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    There's a difference between a prop [sucker] bet and the odds bet.

    The prop bets have a huge HA and are, except the all day hard ways and house special bets such as the fire, single roll bets. Meaning that the decision for those outcomes hinges on a single roll of the dice.

    The Odds bet is good until the end of the round when you SO. When it pays, it is the only bet on the table that pays fair. If you want to play the game to maximum player advantage, you have to play this bet to the maximum allowed.

    All that being said, play within your bankroll and comfort level. Also be prepared to walk away when you're in profit or have lost your buy-in. If you're having fun at the game with 2x odds then more power to you, but know that you're not playing to the maximum player advantage. When my local casino only offered 2x odds I was happy to play it as it was the only game in town. However, when I started having the chance to regularly play at 3x-4x-5x odds I found the number of profitable sessions increased. My bankroll doesn't allow me to wager more than 3x-4x-5x odds until I'm well in profit for a session. So even when I play at a 5x or higher table I don't take advantage until I'm comfortable doing so. I make that choice knowing that I'm potentially leaving money on the table.

    Looking at it from your perspective, if you really consider the odds bet just another sucker bet on the table seriously ask yourself if this is a game for you to play.
     
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  3. basicstrategy777, Jan 23, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    I don't want to speak for Grizz, but I think what he was trying to say was not that the odds bet is a bad bet, but that even though it is a good bet you can lose it....and if you don't bet in relation to your session stake you can run out of money very quickly. In short, it doesn't matter what bet you make.........but whatever bet you make, don't overbet.

    777
     
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  4. KokomoJoe4, Jan 23, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    perfectly well said 777, but that being said, they are the only GOOD bet on the table, and must be made, assuming bankroll permits.
     
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  5. Grizzoola, Jan 23, 2014

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    Thanks, 777. This says better what I was trying to say. And, I'm sure many may think I'm only stating the obvious. I'm also realizing that when a person talks about wanting high odds, he probably has the stake to fund that. I can see taking/laying 3/4/5x odds on the PL or DP if that is the only number bet on w/ a low stake.

    Myself, I like to have 2 numbers in play, so with a $200 stake, I must divvy up bet amounts that don't leave much room for max odds. (I prefer the PL/Come to Place bets because of the flexibility w/ odds at 0 HA.) After 1.5 years of play w/ over 30 sessions, I'm ahead & thinking about going in w/ a $400 stake & maybe going to max odds.

    I'm thinking I could be twice as far ahead if I'd have gone in w/ double the stake & increasing my odds. Maybe this is a dangerous approach, as KJ4 has already experienced a 7 or 8 session drought. I have yet to lose completely a trip's bankroll & don't know what I'd do if I did. I'm still waiting for the hammer to fall.
     
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  6. rudeboy99, Feb 9, 2014

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

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    Why not take single odds, initially, as the shooter begins his "hand", and move up your odds bet-size, after he makes a pass? ;-P
     
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  7. superrick, Feb 9, 2014

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    The problem with free odds bet is that just about every book that's been written on the game of craps says that the free odds bet is the best bet on a table. None of these authors ever did any research into why that bet was developed.

    The trouble with most craps players is a have no common sense whatsoever and are easily led down the yellow brick road by anybody that says free odds bet is the best bet on the table. The free odds bet was developed to get more players to bet the pass line. Now the reason I say that craps players have no common sense is because they can't figure out that the one bet the casinos force you into having is the pass line bet if you are the shooter.

    Anybody with any common sense, would ask themselves why the casinos want you to make this bet, if it's such a great bet for you to player. The next time you're at a craps table,make the pass line bet, and do not take the odds, and see what happens! The dealer will try to sell you on taking the so-called free odds, again think about why this is happening. The casinos have taught them to sell every bad bet on the table!

    Casinos are not in the business to tell you what the best bets are in any casino game they do not want you to win! Saying that the so-called free odds bet has no house advantage, is just BS. You have to make the point that was established, before the event can be paid. Most of the time the point that has been established, Will not be made, all the math books the game of craps stated the worst place numbers are the four and 10. So again ask yourself, what happens when the shooter establishes a four and 10. Did those numbers all of a sudden become the best bets on the table?



    Well if they didn't, then your so-called free odds bet sucks, the same goes for the five of the nine!
    Just ask anybody that takes max odds every time a point is established how many times they win at craps!

    The so-called free odds bet, had to be one of the best bets that was ever developed for the casinos. It sucks players right into a casino trap, of betting more of their money, thinking there is almost no way that they can lose, because the house advantage is so low, on the so-called free odds bet.

    There are very few craps books that differ from all the rest of them. They just re-write what they have read and have never done any research into the so-called free odds bet.
    The next time you're at a craps table, watch what happens to all those great free odds bets, as they get swept off the table every time somebody rolls a seven out!

    If the table is cold, I don't care how many free odds bets you make, they will not help you to win. The only thing they are accomplishing is that your losing your money faster then you normally would, if you weren't using them.
     
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  8. basicstrategy777, Feb 9, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    I guess that's one way to look at it...........here is another way:

    " Taking odds in craps offers a good way to picture the links among probability, edge, and luck. "Odds" are secondary wagers, augmenting bets on the "pass line. Both win when a shooter repeats a point before throwing a seven. The primary bets pay even money and give the house an edge equivalent to about 1.4 cents on the dollar. The odds pay in exact proportion to the chances of winning and give the house no edge.

    Say you make enough $10 line bets to experience 3960 decisions. If the distribution of outcomes is statistically correct, you'll lose $560 because of the house edge. When you take odds, the theoretical dollar loss per bet stays fixed. As odds rise, however, the amount becomes a diminishing fraction of the total bet, so edge drops on the combination.

    Shaving the edge by taking odds reduces the luck you need by trimming the deviation above the mathematically-correct distribution necessary to break even. With no odds, you must win about 1.4 percent more than the statistically expected number of line bets to see daylight. Taking single odds ($10 odds, $10 line), 0.8 percent over the expected win rate zeroes out. At double odds ($20 odds, $10 line), the necessary deviation drops to 0.55 percent. Triple odds ($30 odds, $10 line) lowers it to around 0.4 percent. And five-times odds ($50 odds, $10 line) only requires an upshift around 0.3 percent from expected results to overcome the edge. It's no coincidence that these break-even deviations equal the house advantage on the combined bets.

    Taking odds to lessen the house advantage has a downside, of course. You're betting more, so the same negative deviation some bad luck deepens your loss.

    The further you have to foray from the laws of probability to make a profit, the more you lean on luck. Conversely, strategies putting you deeper into the dough with smaller deviations from statistically-expected results demand less luck. "

    In short, the more odds you take, the less you have to win to break even, because the house advantage becomes less and less, resulting in the house keeping less and less of your money each time you win. The more odds you take the 'fairer' the bet becomes and the fewer times you have to win to break even.

    Luck always enters the picture when determining the final outcome, but why not give yourself the very best possible chance by reducing the house advantage as much as possible, by taking odds.


    777
     
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  9. rudeboy99, Feb 9, 2014

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

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    While PL and Come odds are anything but free, they still are the only 0% expectation wager in a gamblin' joint and as such drop the HA overall on "DO" side bets, at least that's my understanding. As far as the dealers reminding a player who regularly takes odds, that they don't have some odds on a particular wager, that's what we refer to in gaming business as good customer service, and isn't due some conspiracy between the dice crews and management. Good service is how we earn a living. On the other hand, laying odds, when a player is playing the Don't side, dilutes the players mathematical % once his DP or DC is safely behind a number. I don't have any figures, but I'm positive this is right. If someone could come up with the math, here, I'd appreciate it. :p
     
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  10. basicstrategy777, Feb 9, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    I can't come up with the math at the moment, but I can tell you, RE: the Don't bet, with the same amount of money at risk, between a flat bet and a flat bet and laying odds, you will win more money laying odds. The difference is not significant, but it is there.

    If you wanted to play strictly by the math, you should lay odds. As usual, amount layed is a function of your pocketbook.



    777
     
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  11. rudeboy99, Feb 9, 2014

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

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    Sure, I totally agree. But for example, I've got $10 on the DC...4 rolls and my $10 is moved behind the 4. At this point I've got a 2 to 1 mathematical edge over the house. But if I lay $20 odds does my % diminish? I guess not...That's the one issue I've had (mathematically) all this time.
     
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  12. basicstrategy777, Feb 9, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    The house advantage only applies to the flat bet, the odds bet carries no house advantage because the payout is fair with neither the casino or player having an advantage.

    When you lay the odds , you now have more money on your bet; hence, you apply the flat bet house advantage over more money ( the flat plus the odds ); hence, the house advantage percentage number changes to a lower figure; In this sense the house advantage moves toward favoring the player when laying odds.

    You are not looking at it as the same total amount bet ( e.g. 30 flat vs. 10 flat lay 20 ). My explanation above applies to your example of starting with 10 flat and then laying odds.

    I assumed the % you are asking about is house advantage and does it change.

    I hope I'm not confusing things.

    If you want a mathematical formula Midnite might chime in or you probably can get it from the Wizzard of Odds.

    777
     
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  13. idoc

    idoc Member

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    I have to dissagree. The best bet is to bet on the number(s) that are more likely to show.

    For me I usually bypass the come out roll and bet inside or at least 6&8. Place bets are more versatile.

    Which is a better bet? 5$ PL with 50$ odds or 30$ on 6 & 8. I can tell you I have won more just betting on 6&8 than betting PL with odds.

    20X, 100X, high odds are just a hook imo. If you must make a line bet, bet the dont with max odds like 777 said, you win more laying odds. Why? What number is most likely to roll? Ding, ding, ding...

    Like I said... bet on the number(s) more likely to roll.
     
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  14. superrick, Feb 10, 2014

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    The problem with the below quote is that you will never be there for the 3960 decisions, and the distribution of outcomes will never be statistically correct in the short run, which you are playing in.
    The casinos knows that and the guy that came up with the so-called free odds, had a winning bet for the casinos, that is why they implemented the bet, and never look back!
    In the below quote, you can't shaved the edge by taking odds, just because you took the so-called free odds it does not change the math on any point that is established. Therefore if you were so unlucky that the shooter established a four or a ten, if you were going by the math of the game, you would now be looking at bad bet. There is no way around it, all of the books say to four or 10 is a bad bet!

    The so-called free odds bet was a marketing tool that was developed to encourage pass line bets.

    When you look at the point of 4 or 10 there are 6 ways to lose and 3 ways to win.
    When you look at the point of 5 or 9 there are 6 ways to lose and 4 ways to win.
    When you look at the point of 6 or 8 there are 6 ways to lose and 5 ways to win.

    Taking the so-called free odds, will not changed the odds of making those points. There is always six ways to lose every one of those bets! You also have to look at the fact that you are paying so you can place the so-called free odds bet.
    As I tell everybody, just remember what ever the point is that is established you have to repeat it to make money on any bet that you place, it doesn't matter if it's a pass line bet or a place bet. What does matter is the fact that they just locked you into your pass line bet by not allowing you to take it down, and that is what the casinos want to do.

    By betting the pass line bet, you lock yourself into whatever the table gives you. Once you place the pass line bet, you lose control over the chips you have on the line. At one point your bet will either lose or win, there is nothing you can do about it.

    Whereas a place bet can be taken down at any time, and you have the control over your bet. You can get paid one time and take your bet down. With your pass line bet it's either you lose or win, and there is no deviation on the pass line bet. Win maybe, lose maybe, the one thing you can be sure of, is that your bet will be decided either way, there is no in between! No matter what the math of the game says there is no guarantee, that the bet will be decided in your favor.

    All casino games are based on a math, and they are all biased in the casinos favor. You are always playing a negative game, and the casinos would never have it good bet that will favor the players. Taking so-called free odds will never change the advantage the casino has on you.
     
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  15. basicstrategy777, Feb 10, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    With the Pass line bet, I have 8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose. I should be paid 50 cents on a one dollar bet but instead I am paid even money. 1/3 of all comeout rolls win or lose immediately. 66% (2/3) win (7 or 11) and 33% (1/3) lose (craps).Tell me again why this is a bad bet. By the way, why do you think the PL bet is a contract bet ? What casino in their right mind would allow you to make a PL bet with the odds and payout as I stated above, and than allowing you to pick up the PL bet if it doesn't win. You can't 'cherry pick' your bets.

    You say taking odds on the 4 and 10 is a bad bet. Yet I am paid 2 to 1 if it hits, which is fair and which has no casino advantage. Why is this a bad thing ?

    The PL bet is a 2 stage bet......you are focusing only on the second stage and neglecting the first stage.

    It like saying when betting Don't the player has the advantage once past the come out roll........you can't forget about the come out roll when playing Don't........just like you can't forget about the come out roll when playing Do. The come out roll must be factored in.

    777
     
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  16. basicstrategy777, Feb 10, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    Rudeboy...In a previous post I said the math RE: your question was probably buried somewhere in the WOO.

    I found it for you and here it is:




    I do not understand why you should lay the odds on the don’t pass or don’t come bets. It seems that you have already dodged the 7 and ll bullet, so the bet is now in your favor. Why would you dilute a bet that is already heavily in your favor with a large (relative speaking)bet at true odds? It seems that you are working in the houses favor by reducing the house edge on the entire bet.
    I understand that taking the odds on the pass side reduces the overall house edge, however I don’t understand how laying the odds can reduce the house edge on the don’t side. I’m very curious? By the way, I discussed this with several casino bosses and dealers yesterday and they all had opinions, but not reasons for these opinions. Thanks for your time.
    ”” Mike


    Let’s say you have a $10 don’t pass bet and the point is a 4. You have a 2/3 chance of winning the bet, so the expected value is (2/3)*$10 + (1/3)*-$10 =$ 10/3 = $3.33. Now consider adding a $40 odds bet on top of it. Now you have a 2/3 chance of winning $30 and a 1/3 chance of losing $50. The expected value of both bets combined is (2/3)*$30 + (1/3)*-$50 = $10/3 = $3.33. So either way your expected gain is 3 dollars and 33 cents. With the don’t pass alone the player edge is $3.33/$10 = 33.33%. With the don’t pass and odds the player edge is $3.33/$50 = 6.67%. So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops by making the odds bet. However that player edge is effective over more money. The way I think gamblers should view the house edge is as the price to pay for entertainment. If you want to pay as little as possible then taking or laying the odds is getting entertainment for free.

    777
     
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  17. rudeboy99, Feb 10, 2014

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

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    Uh...er...We're in sync, man...I totally agree. I feel that laying odds=bad, and taking SOME odds has to be good. Apparently, my communication skills are going south, too. I was simply hoping to see PROOF that my theory concerning laying odds diminishing the % as fact. It's only been a feeling I've had for years that I sorta worked out myself. :)
     
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  18. KokomoJoe4, Feb 10, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    The Dice Dr. states that laying maximum odds is the way to play. 777 states the same in his book as well, although he may or may not be as confident of results. Obviously, this is proven mathematically, but it takes some testicular fortitude to lay six to win 5, 4, or 3, especially when the bets get big. Don't believe I'd do it, but consistent winning has a way of changing one's mind.

    Dr. Sam claims to have a very good win percentage playing this way.
     
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  19. basicstrategy777, Feb 10, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    Regarding laying odds all I can say is fair is fair is fair is fair.

    On the 4/10, I don't understand the problem of being paid 20 dollars if you lay 40.

    You are being paid in direct proportion to the assumed risk ; you win exactly what you deserve, no more and no less; it is an optional bet you can make or remove.

    All you are doing when laying odds is adding a fair bet on top of your flat bet ; the odds bet did not have to go thru the DP/DC and be subject to possible loss like the flat bet did. Yes, it does get paid even money but it had to "earn" that by being subject to a high chance of loss. If you choose not to lay odds, it's your call and not necessarily a wrong thing to do.


    777
     
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  20. TDVegas, Feb 10, 2014

    TDVegas

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    Taking odds will reduce the house edge. That's a fact over the long haul. The concern people should have is that taking max odds can wipe you out very quickly on a bad set of rolls..which can and will happen on the pass or don't pass side. I saw a guy the other day playing the don't $25 with 3x odds and the roller hit the point 7 times in a row. He was beside himself. It can and will happen. I've also seen 7 out happen many times in a row. Craps in my mind is a little different than blackjack in that playing pass and don't pass generally is a 1 win, 1 loss,2 win, 2 loss, 3 win 1 loss, 1 win 3 loss game. Streaks happen in blackjack more often.

    My suggestion for people is take 1x odds to start out and see how it progresses and then start laying out more if you are ahead or are in a win streak. Never chase. The game should be used as entertainment because no matter what you do you can never overcome the house edge. Single roll bets are sucker bets. If you want to play numbers, play the 6,8 as they also have the lowest house edge.
     
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