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will this work?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by highroller2145, Jan 21, 2011.

  1. highroller2145, Jan 21, 2011

    highroller2145

    highroller2145 Member

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    Can I lay a $41 no ten, make it working on the come out. So I can hedge my $20 don't pass bet. Then take the $41 no ten down after a point has been established. I didn't Know if that is legal or not. Do you think this would be a good strategy?
  2. basicstrategy777, Jan 21, 2011

    basicstrategy777

    basicstrategy777 Member

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    if a lay bet is on the felt it is always working. It is never OFF. You can take it down anytime.....you can put it up anytime.

    If you win with the strategy it is a good strategy. If you lose with the strategy it is a bad strategy. It's a crap shoot.

    777
  3. cwaters973, Jan 22, 2011

    cwaters973

    cwaters973 Member

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    What do you do when a Yo eleven is rolled on the Come Out?
  4. highroller2145, Jan 22, 2011

    highroller2145

    highroller2145 Member

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    Watch them take my money. Haha
  5. powerpress74, Jan 22, 2011

    powerpress74

    powerpress74 Member

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    Bet a $1.50 YO LOL
  6. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 26, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

    The Midnight Skulker Member

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    As basicstrategy777 has noted, this is legal. It is, in fact, a variation of a strategy called Ricochet attributed to Les Scally by his friend and gambling author John Patrick. The philosophy behind this play is to get into a position of being the favorite to win an even money bet (when a point is established) while protecting the DP bet from the devil on the comeout roll. (The original system, which used a $15 DP, tossed in a dollar yo on the comeout to protect the DP from that result also.) Of course the Achilles' Heel of the strategy you propose gets hit when ten becomes the point and you lose your lay bet. As with all hedging strategies this one pays a premium in expected value to dampen variance, which stabilizes playing time. If that's an acceptable trade and you have the bankroll to withstand the possibility of losing over $60 on a single coup, then this is not a bad strategy IMHO.
  7. goatcabin, Jan 26, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    I programmed this into WinCraps , using the $15 DP, the $1 Yo and the $40 no-10 ($1vig, collected only on wins). I set the bankroll at $600 and the win goal at $300, with a 200-roll "time" limit (about two hours' play). I ran 10,000 sessions, and there were no busts, but the win goal was reached only 22 times, either. With these bets offsetting each other, you're not likely to win half your bankroll. The biggest loss was $473. Some other results:

    mean net outcome: -$17.57
    median net outcome: -$17.00
    mode of net outcomes: -$39 to -$32
    standard deviation: $110.54
    winning sessions: 4385
    breakeven sessions: 48
    losing sessions: 5567

    There were only 528 sessions that lost $200 or more, 5.3%. Many methods advocated by John Patrick are designed to damp variance, which limits losses but reduces your chances of coming out ahead.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, Ca
  8. hudderdice, Apr 30, 2011

    hudderdice

    hudderdice Member

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    I have WinCraps and I was wondering....is there anyone here that would be willing to help me setup a simulation for WinCraps.

    I want to test out different strategies but I do not know how to set it up.

    If anyone can help that would be great....Thanks.
  9. goatcabin, Apr 30, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    I'm busy the next couple of days, but I will send you some of my AutoBet files if you send me your e-mail. Then, if you need more help, you can send me some parameters and I will see what I can do.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
  10. hudderdice, Apr 30, 2011

    hudderdice

    hudderdice Member

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    Sounds good to me. Thanks Alan. My email is: [email protected]
  11. Hardeight, May 2, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    Actually they keep the 1 dollar so you only get 40 back.I always leave my lay bets up.You might want to try laying the 4 and 10 its double the money andif one loses you can bring the other down.
  12. $nakeEye$, May 4, 2011

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    The " proper / preferred " strategy - " If you were the Shooter " would be to " Lay $40 against the Outside 2 ( 4 and 10 ) - set for the " No 4 / 10 Seven Set " which is the " Any/All 7 Set with the 6/1 on Axis " - ON THE COME OUT ROLL ONLY - once a point # was established - take down your lay bets - and bet your normal point roll strategy.

    Another strategy - when a point was established and hit - wheras players have come bets on the line - set the 6/5 - 5/6 dice formation - this will produce yo's and crap #'s - make a horn bet - I generally bet a $2 Hi-Lo, $2 - 3 Craps - $2 - Yo - which is a $6 Horn bet - avoids the 7 but can produce a nice $$$$$$ return when you hit those horn 's.
  13. crapsdealer, May 10, 2011

    crapsdealer

    crapsdealer Member

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    Few people realize this, and I always see players "hedging their dont pass or dont come bets (say a $15 DP bet and a dollar YO), but all your doing is cutting into your profits. The don't pass and don't come DO NOT actually lose on an 11 like we've always been taught. Unless your only going to play craps once in your life (which none of us can say lol) , over our lifetime the 11 will roll the same amount of times as the 3. Since we win on the 3, that cancels out the losses of the 11 and vice versa. My advice (as a player and a dealer), is to just take the 3's a lil bonus, and remember when that 11 rolls, we'll soon hit a 3 to make up for it.
  14. Hardeight, May 10, 2011

    Hardeight

    Hardeight Member

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    That phrase makes me suspicious sounds like the casino's dice are programmed for a 3 to win back the money after you loss on the 11.Then my theories are right!!!
  15. 7Craps, Apr 25, 2012

    7Craps

    7Craps Member

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    WRONG! Do NOt listen to this person spreading probability LIES!!! a 3 will NEVER make up for an 11!
    They do NOT roll the same NUMBER of times. If they do, it is just coincidental not a proof of ANY LAW.

    again, I quote words from a low dealer on the pecking order.

    You are living by the untrue "law of averages."

    "The Law of Large Numbers" that IS a real Law, says the ratio or percentages will get very close to expectation in the long run, but NOT the absolute number of times a number actually hits. That is actually governed by the Arcsine Law, but you have to study that on your own.

    Averages, ratios and percentages converge, not absolute values.
  16. Southern-Comfort, Apr 25, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

    Southern-Comfort Member

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    Dude... take a deep breath, and probably a bottle of scotch.
    Pick up a pair of dice.. any pair will do. Set them as if an 11 was rolled and then turn them upside down. Now.. set them as if a 3 was rolled and... oh yeah, they are already set as if a 3 was rolled aren't they. There are exactly the same number of threes and elevens.
  17. crapsdealer, Apr 26, 2012

    crapsdealer

    crapsdealer Member

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    Good call Southern Comfort....it's just based on simple probablity...there are 36 combinations on 2 dice, 2 ways to roll an 11, 2 exact opposite ways to roll the 3. Probablilty, that is what the casinos base their payouts on, and how they always win. Shooting for the long term.
  18. kaysirtap, Apr 26, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Okay, well technically it's 36 permutations, and only 21 combinations... but forgetting about that...

    I believe 7Craps is correcting you in saying that while 3s and 11s both have the same probability of being thrown, it does not mean that they will show up the same number of times, nor does it mean that one will make up for the other. Remember that we're talking about probabilities... not certainties.
  19. crapsdealer, Apr 26, 2012

    crapsdealer

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    Very true, in one session of play, but if anyone had ever kept track of the number of 3's rolled in, say, a 10 year span of playing dice, and the number of 11's rolled, I'm willing to bet any amount of money that those numbers will be very close. But, that is hypothetical, as I'm sure no one ever has or ever will keep track of every dice roll in their craps playing lifetime.
  20. thecrazymr, Sep 9, 2012

    thecrazymr

    thecrazymr Member

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    Actually, the numbers not only will equalize over time but over take the others as well. For a while there will be more elevens in your charting, then one day the threes will catch up and become the dominant number. They will never remain equal, nor will one remain dominant over the other in the long term. It is a continuous exchanging cycle.

    Even if they did, it would not effect the casino from extracting it's money from you. The casino does not base it's profits on the fact that they will both roll an equal number of times. They base their profit on the fact that over time an equal number of players will win or lose an equal amount of money off of each number.

    This is best illustrated using the game of Roulette. Let us assume that 38 people all place a single bet on the table on a number. Each player chooses a different number to bet on. One player will be paid 35 chips and get to keep his/her original bet for 36 chips. Since 38 bets were placed, the house keeps 2 chips from the bet. The house does not care when someone wins. In fact they prefer that so others see the win and continue to play. The house could care less if the same number rolled 10 times in a row becasue they will still extract the 2 chips off the table from the losing players.

    Craps works the same way. There will be X dollars bet for/against any given number. If that number hits player A get paid and if it does not player B gets paid. Either way, the house wants to take from one player and pass the chips to another. The house keeps it's percentage for acting as the exchange. The goal is not to try and beat the house and it's exchange rate because it applies to every bet on the entire table individually. The goal is to have more wins as player A than player B has expectations of. If you can work within the peramaters set by the house and start working to extract more wins than your fellow players you will leave ahead. If not, someone else will leave ahead. Either way, the casino will be ahead.