Welcome to CrapsForum.com! Craps Forum is the premier online community for Craps Players to interact and learn from other like minded people. Sign up today and you will gain access to advanced gambling strategies, gambling tips, online casino reviews, bonus codes, and everything else you may need to become a more successful gambler. As a member you will enjoy access to more features and see fewer ads. Best of all, it is FREE so Click Here to Sign Up Now!
Quite frankly, I have read many books on craps, but I have never found one that treats variability in any scientific way. Most books concentrate on the house advantage (HA) as the only significant factor in choosing what bets to make. Many of them recommend the pass/come/come (3-point Molly) simply because of the low HA, calculated on the combined bet amount. I had two of John Patrick’s books, including “Advanced Craps”, but I threw them out. Although he does treat volatility in a vague way, he is innumerate to a very high degree and his style of writing is insulting. In addition, his arguments in favor of place bets over come bets are very misleading, almost dishonest. It’s not that there’s anything particularly wrong with his methods, but they are appropriate for certain players, not for others, which he does not recognize. He calls people who play differently “dorks” and other abusive name.
I have also read several books on the mathematics of gambling, but they don’t really cover craps to a great extent.
There are so many factors to consider in comparing different bets and betting systems, the HA being just one of them, the variance (standard deviation), the skew (measure of asymmetry) and kurtosis (measure of peakedness) also being important. A good craps simulator, like WinCraps (http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com), can be used to simulate millions of rolls, decisions, sessions, etc. and will show you a graph of the outcomes, from which you can determine the probabilities of various outcomes, like coming out ahead, busting your bankroll, winning a certain amount, etc. To me, that has been far more valuable than any book I have read.
However, to answer the question, I suppose the best book on craps I have read was “The Dice Doctor” by Sam Grafstein. I just checked on Amazon.com, and there is a “Revised and Expanded” version from 1990 that is available from a couple of “partners” for $21. A few years ago a guy on rec.gambling.craps was kind enough to send me a copy. I wrote a review of it and posted it on the newsgroup and sent the book back. If anyone is interested, I will post it here.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I learned how to play Professional Dice from this great Dice Player , Sam would never give you DICE instructions AT the Dice table .
Over the years (66) i have invented some profitable dice moves of my own ONLY so because of this GREAT Dice players teachings. http://www.dice profession.com.
As to Patrick , i dont know , Scoblete -one look was enough -! IN MY OPINION ( just like the 6&8 do pass play)his books may have BROKE MORE CRAPSHOOTERS THAN ALL THE OTHER DICE BOOKS EVER PRINTED IN THE ENTIRE WORLD !
There is a HUGE( play )difference between a PROFESSIONAL Dice player(career winners)vs DEALER-EXPERIENCED Dice players(career losers).
From the Einstein Of Dice Sam Grafstein (As he taught me)
“dimes will become dollars if and when the dice turn for you ” provided you play for KEEPS !
fROM DADOS (http://www.diceprofession.com) my best selling book is ” Dice Brickwall Graveyard “near Searchlight ,Nevada” it shows you HOW to avoid this GraveYard by playing for KEEPS !!
Now a 100% winning DICE BET example : You have a $250 bet AGAINST the point 6 , you would now make a $240 PLACE bet on the SAME point to establish a wager you cannot lose .
Now a 100% winning DICE BET example : You have a $250 bet AGAINST the point 6 , you would now make a $240 PLACE bet on the SAME point to establish a wager you cannot lose .
Suppose you bet $250 on don’t pass. If the bet gets past the comeout, it now has a favorable expectation. If the seven shows, you win the $250, but if the six shows, you lose it. If you place the six for $240, you net $10 on the seven, $30 on the six.
However, this is “sneaky advertising”, because it diverts your attention away from the fact that the DP has a severe disadvantage on the comeout roll.
Let’s compare the two situations:
If you just keep the $250 DP:
ev: +$22.72
standard deviation: $249
for 60 such situations:
ev: +$1364, SD $1928
with the hedge:
ev: $19.09
standard deviation: $10
for 60 such situations:
ev: $$1145, SD $77
So, you are getting way, way less variance and giving up almost 20% of your expected win. That may be what you want, of course, because it guarantees you won’t lose. By not hedging, you get another $200 with average luck over the course of 60 such bets, but you could get hammered.
So, “you pays your money and you makes your choice”. But don’t be fooled by looking at the DP bet AFTER a point is established; there is a reason you can’t make that bet after the comeout roll, but you CAN make a pass bet then.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
“Now a 100% winning DICE BET example: You have a $250 bet AGAINST the point 6, you would now make a $240 PLACE bet on the SAME point to establish a wager you cannot lose.”
As goatcabin Alan pointed out, once your don’t bet has gone behind a number you can guarantee at least breaking even by placing/buying that number. The catch, of course, is that your don’t bet has to survive the comeout, where it is an 8:3 dog. As a consequence, this strategy gives the house a 2-3% advantage. However, if you are behind a number and get nervous enough to consider taking down your established don’t bet, you are better off using this strategy (of placing or buying that number).
DADOS HERE . 100% WINNING DICE BET GUARANTEED ! Since this THREAD created a huge amount of comment i would like to add a few remarks to the UP ROAR . TO ME A SILLY MOVE ( REMARK ) YOU WILL FIND AT A CRAP TABLE , IS A WRONG BETTOR CALLING “NO ACTION” (or removing their chip) when he/she is wagering on the Dont Pass or Dont come line , and the shooter rolls a 6 or an 8 . NO ACTION calls as high as $1000 when the bet could have been hedged (100% win guaranteed)instead of giving it BACK TO THE HOUSE ! HANDICAP ! GUESS! I call it dreaming. YOU DREAM THAT YOUR NEXT LAYDOWN ( THE NO ACTION CHIP) GETS A 4 OR A 10 ROLL. SURPRISE ! SNEAKY 7 OR 11 ! These weak moves (some others) send most all Dice Players to the DICE BRICKWALL GRAVEYARD near SEARCHLIGHT, NEVADA TAP CITY , POCKET TURNED INSIDE OUT ( REACING FOR THEIR CELL PHONE AT THE DICE BRICKWALL UNDERTAKERS PARLOR) THESE no action ETC players are all too common, they BEAT THEM SELVES FOR MUCH MORE THAN THE HOUSE DOES,——NOW- BROKE——————THEY SEEM HAPPY ? THEY LOOK HAPPY WALKING “AROUND” THE DICE TABLE ? ? You have a $250 bet AGAINST the 6 , you would NOW make a $240 PLACE on the SAME point . IF you are still confused i would advise you to get SUCCESSFUL DICE ebook , in addition to this EXAMPLE you can find 100 pages of WINNING DICE . No need then to look for your cell phone , its joy on the way to the bank ! http://www.diceprofession.com. If you dont want any of the other material (NON DICE TALK) then e-mail me .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (Spanish or English) i will see if i can get you a seperate SUCCESSFUL DICE download in a few days.( Price$10 for the e-book) . DADOS (CORRER EL GALLO)
DADOS HERE . 100% WINNING DICE BET GUARANTEED ! Since this THREAD created a huge amount of comment i would like to add a few remarks to the UP ROAR . TO ME A SILLY MOVE ( REMARK ) YOU WILL FIND AT A CRAP TABLE , IS A WRONG BETTOR CALLING “NO ACTION” (or removing their chip) when he/she is wagering on the Dont Pass or Dont come line , and the shooter rolls a 6 or an 8 . NO ACTION calls as high as $1000 when the bet could have been hedged (100% win guaranteed)instead of giving it BACK TO THE HOUSE ! HANDICAP ! GUESS! I call it dreaming. YOU DREAM THAT YOUR NEXT LAYDOWN ( THE NO ACTION CHIP) GETS A 4 OR A 10 ROLL. SURPRISE ! SNEAKY 7 OR 11 ! These weak moves (some others) send most all Dice Players to the DICE BRICKWALL GRAVEYARD near SEARCHLIGHT, NEVADA TAP CITY , POCKET TURNED INSIDE OUT ( REACING FOR THEIR CELL PHONE AT THE DICE BRICKWALL UNDERTAKERS PARLOR) THESE no action ETC players are all too common, they BEAT THEM SELVES FOR MUCH MORE THAN THE HOUSE DOES,——NOW- BROKE——————THEY SEEM HAPPY ? THEY LOOK HAPPY WALKING “AROUND” THE DICE TABLE ? ? You have a $250 bet AGAINST the 6 , you would NOW make a $240 PLACE on the SAME point . IF you are still confused i would advise you to get SUCCESSFUL DICE ebook , in addition to this EXAMPLE you can find 100 pages of WINNING DICE . No need then to look for your cell phone , its joy on the way to the bank ! http://www.diceprofession.com. If you dont want any of the other material (NON DICE TALK) then e-mail me .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (Spanish or English) i will see if i can get you a seperate SUCCESSFUL DICE download in a few days.( Price$10 for the e-book) . DADOS (CORRER EL GALLO)
Is your book written in ALL CAPS? >
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Now a 100% winning DICE BET example : You have a $250 bet AGAINST the point 6 , you would now make a $240 PLACE bet on the SAME point to establish a wager you cannot lose .
Suppose you bet $250 on don’t pass. If the bet gets past the comeout, it now has a favorable expectation. If the seven shows, you win the $250, but if the six shows, you lose it. If you place the six for $240, you net $10 on the seven, $30 on the six.
However, this is “sneaky advertising”, because it diverts your attention away from the fact that the DP has a severe disadvantage on the comeout roll.
Let’s compare the two situations:
If you just keep the $250 DP:
ev: +$22.72
standard deviation: $249
for 60 such situations:
ev: +$1364, SD $1928
with the hedge:
ev: $19.09
standard deviation: $10
for 60 such situations:
ev: $$1145, SD $77
So, you are getting way, way less variance and giving up almost 20% of your expected win. That may be what you want, of course, because it guarantees you won’t lose. By not hedging, you get another $200 with average luck over the course of 60 such bets, but you could get hammered.
So, “you pays your money and you makes your choice”. But don’t be fooled by looking at the DP bet AFTER a point is established; there is a reason you can’t make that bet after the comeout roll, but you CAN make a pass bet then.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I agree with Alan.
Let me try and explain why your math is wrong:
When you LAY a number in this case the 6 or 8 it has to be in icrements of $6.00 to win $5.00
So your bet will have to be $252.00 to win $210.00 less 5% commission = $200.00
When you PLACE a number the odds are 7:6
In your case you Placed the 6 for $240.00 for a Win of $280.00
On the Come Out roll you will have to have the 6 working
If the 6 is thrown you win $30.00
$280.00-($250-$10.00)=$30.00 $10.00 being the commission you paid when you LAYED the 6
IF a 7 is thrown on the come out or at any other point in the game, you would win your LAY bet and lose your Place bet.
Place bet lost =$240.00
Lay Bet Won = $210.00 less 5% commission=$200.00
As you can see You stand a good chance of losing.
Is my math wrong?
Let me try and explain why your math is wrong:
When you LAY a number in this case the 6 or 8 it has to be in icrements of $6.00 to win $5.00
So your bet will have to be $252.00 to win $210.00 less 5% commission = $200.00
When you PLACE a number the odds are 7:6
In your case you Placed the 6 for $240.00 for a Win of $280.00
On the Come Out roll you will have to have the 6 working
If the 6 is thrown you win $30.00
$280.00-($250-$10.00)=$30.00 $10.00 being the commission you paid when you LAYED the 6
IF a 7 is thrown on the come out or at any other point in the game, you would win your LAY bet and lose your Place bet.
Place bet lost =$240.00
Lay Bet Won = $210.00 less 5% commission=$200.00
As you can see You stand a good chance of losing.
Is my math wrong?
I don’t think he’s talking about a lay bet; I think he’s talking about a don’t pass bet that has moved to the 6 or 8. That’s the way I analyzed it.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Your right Alan , that is exackly what i am talking about . Example you bet $250 on the Dont Pass Line and the shooter rolls a 6 , instead of a call NO ACTION or removing the 6 (or 8) you would PLACE bet the 6 for $240.
Say your bet is $1,000 (DC) AND THE SHOOTER ROLLS A 6 -(YOUR HATE 6 OR 8) SO YOU CALL THE IDIOT COMMAND “no action”
Say you desire not to be a IDIOT- and hedge the bet - how much would you Hedge the bet for Patrick?
WOULD S960 BE CLOSE ?
If the shooter then rolled a 7 could you Loose Pat ? .
HOW MUCH WOULD YOU WIN IF THE SHOOTER ROLLED THE 6 !
HOW MUCH WOULD YOU WIN IF THE SHOOTER ROLLED THE 7 !
In a large casinoS (Heavy action) who many of these bets could you find Pat ?(NO ACTION ! SIR- SIRE CAN I HAVE YOUR BET!)
IN THE OLD DAYS I HAVE MADE AND SEE MADE 10 TO 12 TAKEOVER(NO ACTION) BETS , EARNING ANYWHERE FROM $1,000 TO $4.000 IN 4 OR 5 HOURS !(Today the calls are around ,but not as numereous as in the old days)
BACK 250/240-
PLEASE Alan , sneaky or not , would you PLEASE EXPLAIN this play to the crowd ! IM NOT SURE THEY GET IT YET !
Let me also say this : The Dice brickwall graveyard is full of crapshooters who picked up their chip(Or called NO ACTION ON A DONT PASS 6 OR A 8.
Something else ! IF YOU AVOID WAGERING(DONT PASS) ON THE 6 & 8 , THEN THE HOUSE (CASINO) WILL IN A SHORT TIME FRAME
CUT YOU A BRAND NEW ASS HOLE ! (SAM GRAFSTEIN-THE EINSTEIN OF DICE- SAME SAYS DADOS -(CORRER EL GALLO)
AS FOLLOWS:
Successful Dice $10 ( My gratitude to Sam Grafstein -the Einstein Of Dice who i learned dice from )
( with a few words about Hyman Malnekoff-Russian Louie-bugsy Seigel (AND spinning dice over setting them)ALL were part of my early Las Vegas dice advanture)
The Professional Dice Manual .$21.00(to be completed shortly)
Bonus for purchase of Any of the books is VOODOO BLACKJACK (gaining fast on the top 10)
At my age (almost 90) writting pulls on me(brain? If i ever had one) -thankfully i have never received but a few complaints ! I sincerly belive you will will be satisfied , as we use to say in the old days -HOW TO GET THE MONEY- ( SITE GO UP ON THE 18th OF MARCH IF YOU CARE TO BOOKMARK THE DATE)
My i say this also : All writers are trying to show you how to FAULT THE DICE TABLE-ONLY A FEW BOOKS CAN HELP YOU DO THAT -(DONT GET CAGEY, I KNOW WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT)
I like the way ALAN writes about Dice ,(what little he has said) perhaps someone who knows him can get him write a book ?
LOOK OUT CASINOS !
Your right Alan , that is exackly what i am talking about . Example you bet $250 on the Dont Pass Line and the shooter rolls a 6 , instead of a call NO ACTION or removing the 6 (or 8) you would PLACE bet the 6 for $240.
PLEASE Alan , sneaky or not , would you PLEASE EXPLAIN this play to the crowd ! IM NOT SURE THEY GET IT YET !
Your idea is certainly better than calling “NO ACTION”, which is a terrible idea. As I pointed out, you have a 19% better expected value just leaving the $250 alone than when you hedge it with the place 6 for $240. You guarantee a small win, $10 or $30, and lose the chance for a $250 win, which has a better-than-50% chance. It seems to me that, if you’re afraid of losing the $250, you shouldn’t be betting that high in the first place.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I WAS GAMBLING (DICE) AT A CASINO ON THE GULF COAST ABOUT 10 YEARS AGO WHEN MY WIFE RAN UP TO ME VERY EXCITED
“COME SEE ” SHE SAID “2 MEN OVER THERE ,( 2 OTHER TABLES) , THEY BROKE ALL THE CASINO’S IN BILOXI LAST NITE , NOW THEY ARE HERE DOING THE SAME . THIS LADY WAS THERE . THEY TOOK ALL THE LARGE CHIPS THE BILOXI CASINOS HAD ON HAND “
On my wife’s arm was a dear soul from the state of TEXAS . I introduced myself , picked up my chips , then went over to get a glimpse of these MONSTERS players.
Play for each MONSTER was the same . $400 no 4 , $400 no $10 .
Then one the MONSTERS made a Dont Pass FATAL move ! CHASE !
He lost a 4 , THEN PROCEEDED TO CHASE THE SHOOTER , not ONCE , TWICE ,AND KEPT GOING,—- SO DID THE SHOOTER WHO EVENTAULLY WIPED HIM OUT .
MONSTER WENT FOR THE POCKET ! (I saw both later , asking for a meal ticket)
What most players dont relize is when you lose a lay 4 or 10 , YOU MUST WIN 3 TO SHOW A PROFIT .(VIG)
I like NO 6 - OR NO 8 ( 10 PLAYS) COMEOUT ROLL ONLY!!
Example: $31 no 6 (OR 8)- MAKE THE PLAY ON COMEOUT ROLL ONLY !(10 PLAYS $310 STAKE)
I’ve won a lot of money following the advice of Darwin Ortiz in his book “Darwin Ortiz on Casino Gambling,” which was later republished as “Casino Gambling for the Clueless.” There is only one chapter on craps, but it’s the best I’ve read. There is no BS factor in Ortiz as there is in Patrick (who doesn’t like come bets) and Scoblete (a dice setter!)
I’ve won a lot of money following the advice of Darwin Ortiz in his book “Darwin Ortiz on Casino Gambling,” which was later republished as “Casino Gambling for the Clueless.” There is only one chapter on craps, but it’s the best I’ve read. There is no BS factor in Ortiz as there is in Patrick (who doesn’t like come bets) and Scoblete (a dice setter!)
So, why do you consider it good? What makes it “the best you’ve read”?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Craps Forum
