This is kind of a goofy idea, but still worth throwing out their. 

Their has been numerous times that i have a significant amount of money on the layout when the shooter throws a seven.  I’ll add up my place bets and have 1,000 dollars or more on the layout.  With my 50% presses i always wind up with a little more than whats on the layout in the rail as a profit.  I’m a firm believer that you shouldn’t remove your bets at all.  And i believe that you have to press in order to make a good profit.  Obviously having that much money on the layout when the shooter sevens out, is the price i pay for my style of play.  However,  it still sinks kind of deep and can get quite aggravating.  I tend to say to myself, “if i only called my bets off on that toss”. or “I should have regressed when i reached a certain amount on the layout”.  I never wind of doing any of those because you never know when that hot roll is going to end. 

I don’t plan on removing my bets completely, or regressing significantly.  However, i have been thinking about a hedge to my place bets when the monetary value reaches lets say for argument sake 600 or more, or 1000 or more.  Something significant at least.

I was trying to think of something that would hedge 1/3 of my layout value, so that if that inevitable seven jumps up and bites me, i still walk away with a little. 

I’ve thought of making come bets equivilant to a 1/3 of the layout, and then hedging the come with an anycraps bet.

I’ve also thought of hoppin sevens.  (however i really dont want to be the one at the table hoppin sevens in the middle of a hot roll, their really is no quiet way to hop sevens)

Even though both of these thoughts do exactly what they are intended to do, which is minimize losses.  After doing the math on both, i havent grown fond of either idea.  As a hedge minimizes losses, it also minimizes wins. 

I’m just wondering if anyone has thought of something like this.  I dont know just something to bs about i guess….

lucky4688 - 19 February 2010 09:32 AM

I don’t plan on removing my bets completely, or regressing significantly.  However, i have been thinking about a hedge to my place bets when the monetary value reaches lets say for argument sake 600 or more, or 1000 or more.  Something significant at least.

I was trying to think of something that would hedge 1/3 of my layout value, so that if that inevitable seven jumps up and bites me, i still walk away with a little.

I’ve thought of making come bets equivilant to a 1/3 of the layout, and then hedging the come with an anycraps bet.

I’ve also thought of hoppin sevens.  (however i really dont want to be the one at the table hoppin sevens in the middle of a hot roll, their really is no quiet way to hop sevens)

Even though both of these thoughts do exactly what they are intended to do, which is minimize losses.  After doing the math on both, i havent grown fond of either idea.  As a hedge minimizes losses, it also minimizes wins.

Unfortunately, that is indeed what a true hedge does because a true hedge bet loses when the bet it is hedging wins, and viceversa.  The only strategy I can think of, given your aversion to taking down or regressing your place bets, is to lay a number on which you have no such bet.  Of course the lay bet will lose with no offsetting win when that number hits, but will win when your place bets lose, and will be unaffected when one of your place bets wins.

midnight,

yeah i like that thought.  I’m not a dont player at all, so i didn’t think to consider laying as a hedge.  I’m gonna do some math on that.  The only problem is i start inside, and usually get on the 4 and 10 eventually.  So i almost always have the across covered pretty good by time i get my place bets up high enough to where i want to hedge them.  Thanks for the input im gonna think about that and see if its for me.  Truthfully i think im at the point where im either A) not gonna hedge or regress and just go for gold, or B) just regress at a certain point, but keep a good amount up where i can still press if the number keep hitting.

lucky4688 - 03 March 2010 08:08 AM

Truthfully i think im at the point where im either A) not gonna hedge or regress and just go for gold, or B) just regress at a certain point, but keep a good amount up where i can still press if the number keep hitting.

You know you are allowed to make the same bet, don’t you?  You don’t have to press, regress, or take down.  My own progression uses what I call “double clutches”, same bets where I put the crew up for some amount.  Using Place 8 as an example (because that is the number I have pressed the highest ever, at Wildhorse near Pendleton, OR, once), my progression went as follows:
    $12
    $18
    $24
    $30
    $30 and $6 for the boys, I control
    $60 and $6 for the boys, I control
    $60 and $12 for the boys, I control
    $90 and $12 for the boys, I control
    $90 and $18 for the boys, I control
    $120 and $18 for the boys, I control
    $120 and $24 for the boys, I control
    $150 and $24 for the boys, I control
    $150 and $30 for the boys, I control
    $300 and $30 for the boys, I control
I lost that last one.  (BTW, “I control” means the dealers get the payoff but the bet stays up.)

lucky4688 - 03 March 2010 08:08 AM

midnight,
yeah i like that thought.  I’m not a dont player at all, so i didn’t think to consider laying as a hedge.  I’m gonna do some math on that.  The only problem is i start inside, and usually get on the 4 and 10 eventually.  So i almost always have the across covered pretty good by time i get my place bets up high enough to where i want to hedge them.  Thanks for the input im gonna think about that and see if its for me.  Truthfully i think im at the point where im either A) not gonna hedge or regress and just go for gold, or B) just regress at a certain point, but keep a good amount up where i can still press if the number keep hitting.

Lay bets are interesting. The problem with them, for me, is that in order to pay the lowest possible percentage, you have to lay at least $40 to win $20, a $1 vig, since the vig is paid on the amount to be WON, not the amount of the bet, unlike buy bets. If you are comfortable with that bet level, the vig is just 2.44% of the amount bet (including the vig itself). For a $20 buy bet to win $40, the vig is 4.76% of the amount bet plus the vig. However, in both cases the expected loss, $1, is exactly the same. This is a good example of why the calculated house advantage can be rather misleading. Both bets, aside from the vig, have a zero expectation, but have opposite skew.

The rules on buy and lay bets vary quite a bit. For example, if you buy a the 4 for $30, do you pay $1 or $2? Or, do you pay $3 to buy both the 4 and 10? Or do you pay $1 and $2 alternately? The same questions apply to a lay bet against the 4 for $60, to win $30. The house rules are not posted on the table, like the minimum/maximum and the allowed odds multiples. You have to ask.  If you can lay no 4 for $60 and pay just $1 vig, the HA is now 1.64%. It’s still a $1 expected loss, but you’re getting more action, more variance for your $1.

It is now fairly common, also, for casinos to collect the vig only on a win, not up front. That means that, for a buy 4, the expected loss is only $.33, because you are only expected to win one of three of those bets. However, for a lay-no-4, your expected loss is $.67, because you expect to win 2 of 3, so the advantage is much greater on buy bets than lay bets.

The best deal I have heard of is in Biloxi, MS, where a guy told me you can buy as many numbers as you wish for $30 each and pay just $1 vig per bet, collected only on wins. That yields an HA of just 1.11% on the 4 and 10, lower than the passline. Buying the 5/9 like that is an HA of just 1.33%.

Just what does this all mean? Suppose we compare the expected results of 60 bets, buying and laying 4, under different conditions:

buy 4 for $20, $1 vig collected on win only:

60 bets expected value -$20, standard deviation $215, roughly 46.3% chance of breaking even or better

buy 4 for $30, $1 vig collected on win only:

60 bets expected value -$20, standard deviation $325, roughly 47.5% chance of breaking even or better

lay no 4 for $40, $1 vig collected on win only

60 bets expected value -$40, standard deviation $215, roughly 42.6% chance of breaking even or better

lay no 4 for $60, $1 vig collected on win only

60 bets expected value -$40, standard deviation $325, roughly 45.1% chance of breaking even or better

So, the buy bets look much better because of their “skew”, the fact that they have a less-than-50% chance to win but pay double when they do. The extra value when they round down and charge only $1 vig on a $30 bet is the extra variance you buy, giving you a better chance to overcome the vig; however, that extra variance can also bite you, since it works both ways. Of course, the other thing to consider is that, the more bets you win, the more times the casino collects.

If you’re using the lay bet as a hedge, then it will lower than standard deviation of your entire strategy.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

midnight,

yeah i know im allowed to take same bet.  I didn’t mention that at all, but yeah im aware of it.  After reading the posts, im pretty sure that i have a good idea what im gonna do.  I decided the hedging is not for me because i don’t want to minimize wins.  When my 5 and 9 get to 500 and it hits, knocking it down to 200 and taking 1000 is a good conservative move i think.  Its a good take and i can still press pretty good from 200 after that.  When my 6 and 8 is at 600, knocking it down to 300 and taking 1000 is also a consideration.  4 and 10 im gonna stick with my 50% presses each hit i think.  However, depending on how i feel, i may just take same bet at these points, and then press the hits after that.  I guess im gonna just play it toss by toss and see how i feel when its happening. 

Yeah i had a 1200 dollar six once and that was my highest number.  Thats pretty much what made me consider a hedge in the first place.  Your progression is similar to what i do.  90 to 120 is conservative, but 75 dollar take is nice, however 150 to 300 is more aggressive than i would do.  I go 90, 150, 240 , 360.  You definately take care of the dealers well thats for sure.  Anyways thanks for the tips

goatcabin,

Thanks for the post.  Yeah i decided not to hedge.  If anything im gonna do what i mentioned in the above post.  And if im feeling confident and aggressive, i’ll just follow my regular progression and go for gold.  I’ve only been playing for 2 years, but one day im gonna take a stack of purple off the table, and im not gonna get their if i get weak on my progressions when the layout value gets up their.  I’ve only bought the 4 and 10.  If i wanted to buy the 5 and 9.  Is it the same as the 4 and 10 where you pay a dollar for every twenty that you are betting?  Where i play you pay the vig when you win the bet, so actually it is adventageous to buy the 5 and 9 at certain values.  But i never actually did it yet.  Thats why i am asking about the vig because the math i did on it, was using a 1 dollar vig like the 4 and 10.

lucky4688 - 04 March 2010 02:12 AM

goatcabin,

Thanks for the post.  Yeah i decided not to hedge.  If anything im gonna do what i mentioned in the above post.  And if im feeling confident and aggressive, i’ll just follow my regular progression and go for gold.  I’ve only been playing for 2 years, but one day im gonna take a stack of purple off the table, and im not gonna get their if i get weak on my progressions when the layout value gets up their.  I’ve only bought the 4 and 10.  If i wanted to buy the 5 and 9.  Is it the same as the 4 and 10 where you pay a dollar for every twenty that you are betting?  Where i play you pay the vig when you win the bet, so actually it is adventageous to buy the 5 and 9 at certain values.  But i never actually did it yet.  Thats why i am asking about the vig because the math i did on it, was using a 1 dollar vig like the 4 and 10.

It depends on how they round. In Biloxi, buying the 5 and 9 for $30 is much cheaper than placing them; but at $20, $1 vig, it’s still cheaper if they collect only on a win, with an HA of 2.0%, compared to 4% for placing.
Generally speaking, the vig is 5% on all buy and lay bets, but there are quite a few different implementations of that. I think that it is more common now to collect only on a win, a rare liberalization of the rules.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Years back (Bahamas ) many craps tables outside Las Vegas had no place bets on their cloth , if you wanted to make a place bet you paid 5% vig .

Thus my ADOPTED COME BET . (2 NUMBERS ONLY)
And it works . One reason is Dice is not a Horse race .(Handicap) LET THE DICE TELL YOU WHICH NUMBERS TO WAGER ON.
Watch a Dice table !  - NUMBERS REPEAT THEMSELVES QUITE OFTEN ! How many times have you seen a player call(GUESS) for the the 6 & 8 , ONLY TO GET OUTSIDE NUMBERS !!  Besides its easier on the nerves not to guess .

Example : Shooter rolls a 10 -you (adopt) place bet said 10 . Should the shooter on next roll throw a 5 (etc) you place bet the 5 (adopt) .

No= i never take a winning DO PASS bet down (OR HEDGE IT) unless a STOP LOSS throw occurs.(Only professionals use stop loss moves, they get the MONEY !  SAM GRAFSTEIN-THE EINSTEIN OF DICE) . Use 50% progressive bets . line bet too,  If you DO take your winning Do Pass bets DOWN , ALL YOU WILL EVER WIN(CAREERWISE)  ON A DICE TABLE IS A TRIP BACK TO THE CASINO ON YOUR MONEY !!!!!!!!    (My observation during and AFTER 66 years of Dice play) http://www.diceprofession.com

Dice is not a Baseball game where you bring your ACE picther to mow the HOUSE down .(MAKE HAY WHILE THE SUN SHINES) So called ACE pitchers (shooters) may throw a good hand , everYone then rushes back the next day (He is on the mound again!) , if you are a little late getting to the Casino DONT FRET , all you are going to see IS CRAPSHOOTERS rushing out the exit POCKET TURNED IN SIDE OUT !

He/She knows the dice game , they play 4 numbers , REALLY, !!!!! Nice round investment sir——if you leave the 7 out !

Oh course anything CAN and DOES HAPPEN IN A DICE GAME !

dados (correr el gallo)www.diceprofession.com

You really cant hedge in this situation unless you make come bets, take no odds on the come bets so you get paid on the 7.

However…what I would do is this: Lets say you got $1000 or so on the inside numbers on the table. $300 on 5 and 9 and another $300 on the 6. Your point is 8. What I would do, drop the 5 or the 9 down to $50. Pocket the $250. If your next roll is one of the inside numbers for $300, then make that $50 5 or 9 look like $300 and pocket the rest. That way you have guaranteed that you will walk away with something. If the 7 hits, you saved yourself $250. If the point hits, leave everything up the way it is in the boxes and pocket your odds.

RIGHT ON.

YOU HAVE A POINT , THEN YOU ADOPT (PUT) THE NEXT NUMBER THAT IS ROLLED.

I say—-never quess which numbers to play , let the dice tell you which BOX numbers to bet on .

WELL ? AND ? I WON ON A 6 I SELECTED SIR ! YOU DID .

Well—AND—-?——-goes like this , ANY BET YOU CARE TO MAKE ON A DICE TABLE CAN BE WON, NOT ONCE BUT TWICE OR MORE-STILL THAT DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE MAKING SMART BETS-

THE SECOND LARGEST HEADSTONES IN THE” DICE BRICKWALL “GRAVEYARD NEAR SEARCHLIGHT,NEVADA ARE THOSE DICE PLAYERS WHO ALWAYS GUESSED WHICH BOX NUMBERS TO PLAY.

THE LARGEST BRICKWALL HEADSTONE ?

THE DO PASS 6 & 8 PLAYER. THIS PLAY HAS BROKE MORE CRAPSHOOTERS THAN ALL THE OTHER BETS ON A DICE TABLE COMBINED !!

THE ONLY TIME THE PLAY SUCCEDED WAS WHEN RUSSIAN LOUIE PLAYED IT (WITH 6 SHOOTER).
INVITED TO A PRIVATE POKER GAME( CASINO OWNERS) ON THE LAS VEGAS STRIP , LOUIE STOOD UP TO ANNOUNCE HE HAD WON -EVERTHING !  IN HIS HAND WAS 6 HUGE BALLS OF FIRE IF NEED BE .

I used to ask Louie’s chum(Native American by way of Mexico) for more stories about Louie ,
TOO MUCH GUTS -HE WOULD SAY.

DADOS
Correr el GALLO