onetime77 - 11 January 2009 11:58 AM
The only sidebets I really play are 8 and 9. I believe they have the highest probability of being rolled next to a 7. Every now and then, I’ll bet on the hard numbers of the point. So if the point is 6… I’ll bet on the hard six the entire time because there is a 1 and 3 chance that the next 6 rolled will be the hard 6. (combos of 5,1 4,2 and 3,3).
Actually, it is the six and eight that are the most likely numbers behind the seven.
You are mistaken about the hard six, because 5,1 and 4,2 can occur two ways, whereas 3,3 can only occur one way, so only one of five sixes is expected to be “hard”. Also, of course, the hardways lose on a seven, as well. So:
3,3 win
4,2 2,4 5,1 1,5 1,6 6,1 2,5 5,2 3,4 4,3 all lose
So, ten ways to lose, one to win. The house pays 9 for a win, so, on average, you expect to lose one unit ten times and win nine units once. a loss of one unit per eleven bets, or a 9.09% house advantage. Compare that to 1.4% on the pass line. On the other hand, you can make hardway bets for a dollar at many tables and, because of the 9:1 payoff, it only takes one extra win out of 99 bets to come out ahead (barely). One way that I “toke” the dealers is to make a “two-way” hardway bet, $1 for myself and $1 for the dealers. If you win that bet, the dealers get $10 and it never hurts to have the dealers like you. >:-) they will appreciate it even if the bet loses.
Cheers,
Alan Shank