I am starting to think there is no such thing as winning craps last 3 sessions all losers at only 100 bucks a visit I willl not go broke but it hurts

tercol58 - 17 March 2010 06:14 PM

I am starting to think there is no such thing as winning craps

I guess that depends on your definition of “winning”.  Mathematically, in the long run, and absent any dice control/influence, that is true.  Because winning bets are paid less than the odds that must be overcome to win them, the game is rigged to favor the house (monetarily).  Thanks to variance individual players, who play in the relatively short run, can and do have winning sessions, trips, and even lifetimes, but players as a group are basically doomed.  However, players can win more times than they lose by making multiple bets simultaneously (e.g. 22 inside) or using a losing progression (e.g. a Martingale).

tercol58 - 17 March 2010 06:14 PM

I am starting to think there is no such thing as winning craps last 3 sessions all losers at only 100 bucks a visit I willl not go broke but it hurts

One’s own experience, especially only three sessions, is inadequate to draw any conclusions about any game. That is why there is calculation and there are simulators, so one can examine the consequences of a strategy over thousands of sessions, millions of rolls. As “Midnight” points out, variance gives an individual player hope of winning. although the mass of players will lose and the casinos will win.  Out of a huge range of possible outcomes, each time you play the dice select one of them; it could be a good one!
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Went back today and dropped another 100. One thing I know for sure I will never again walk up to an empty craps table and roll till I am broke.

tercol58 - 18 March 2010 01:49 PM

Went back today and dropped another 100. One thing I know for sure I will never again walk up to an empty craps table and roll till I am broke.

So, what bets are you making and for how much? How long did it take to lose the $100?

Cheers,
Alan Shank

started out with pass line bets 1xodds and5,6,8 nothing I done hit 7s came left and rite should have been on the dark side

tercol58 - 19 March 2010 04:32 AM

started out with pass line bets 1xodds and5,6,8 nothing I done hit 7s came left and rite should have been on the dark side

HOW MUCH WERE YOU BETTING???????

What I am getting at here is the amount of your bets relative to your $100 bankroll. Even at a $5 table, you are putting $5 pass plus odds, plus placing three numbers, so that’s another $15-$17, so maybe $27 out there, which is over 25% of your bankroll. That is definitely a good way to bust quickly. I am not surprised.

It’s easy to say, “I should have been on the darkside”, after the fact. However, you can never know which side you “should” be betting at the point in time when you make the bet.

If you have only $100 to play with, you need to consider limiting your bets to $10-12, maybe pass w/single or just place 6 and 8 for $6 each. That way, you won’t get wiped out by losing 4-5 bets in a row.

If you want to get some good advice, please be more specific about how you are betting, i.e. amounts.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Sorry to be a little more clear as I reflect on this a bit I had know real strategy started my1st bet pass line and 1x odds I think i had 6 or 8 the also for $6. I was the only one at the table so every round I had the pass line bet and 1x odds. Each round was different as for as other numbers played up to 3 different numbers at a time a few times no other numbers. It was just a very bad day and I did not manage my bets very well. When the 7s kept coming I pulled back to a pass line only no odds and then hit a few numbers that I couldn’t before but had no money on them and was down on funds I think I’m upset with myself for staying at the table longer than I should have best if I had cut my loss’s early and left with at least 30 or 40 bucks. 15 to 30 min. was the amount of time with me the only person at the table.
Thanks for trying to help

tercol58 - 19 March 2010 11:50 AM

Sorry to be a little more clear as I reflect on this a bit I had know real strategy started my1st bet pass line and 1x odds I think i had 6 or 8 the also for $6. I was the only one at the table so every round I had the pass line bet and 1x odds. Each round was different as for as other numbers played up to 3 different numbers at a time a few times no other numbers. It was just a very bad day and I did not manage my bets very well. When the 7s kept coming I pulled back to a pass line only no odds and then hit a few numbers that I couldn’t before but had no money on them and was down on funds I think I’m upset with myself for staying at the table longer than I should have best if I had cut my loss’s early and left with at least 30 or 40 bucks. 15 to 30 min. was the amount of time with me the only person at the table.
Thanks for trying to help

No problem. Here’s what you’re fighting here. With only $100 to play with, even just betting $5 pass w/single odds ($6 on 5/9 to win $9), you have about a 20% chance of busting before 200 rolls, which is just a couple of hours’ worth. When you add bets on other numbers you increase the risk of busting substantially.  OTOH, it’s always possible (although unlikely) to get lucky right away, and then you’ll have more to play with.

The problem with being the only one at the table is that if you lose, you lose very fast, and you are sort of “under the gun”; all the dealers are watching you, so it’s sort of uncomfortable.

If you just want to last at the table for a couple of hours, if you just bet minimum passline, you have very little chance to bust within two hours, but it’s not very exciting, and even if you get hot, you’re only winning $5 at a time. The good side of low volatility is that you are extremely unlikely to bust; the down side is that you are also extremely unlikely to win $100.

With only $100 to play with, you don’t have a lot of options.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

With only $100 to play with, you don’t have a lot of options.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I learned this the hard way. I never buy in with less than $300.

Your $100 take out dream just got the best explanations money could buy , i belive . HOWEVER , if you CAN boost your $100 to $110 , I HAVE A SUGGESTION, PLAY ONLY THE PASS LINE (Single Odds). A $110 take out will cover 10 shooters .

There are 2 ways to play the Pass Line , most favorable way for me is to PARLAY all naturals on come out roll for a point—and wait for a shooter to get a HIT( throw a natural or make a point)  before betting on their roll . 

Point made or Hits (plus odds ) are increased 50% - a flat $5 win goes to $7 (single odds 5-5-5) the $7 flat win then go to $10 (single odds 7-8-10) should the $10 (3rd roll) win the flat goes to $15(single odds 25 30 25) you continue to increase in this manner until you reach TABLE LIMIT , then play TABLE LIMIT .

Place you winnings in the 2nd groove on the dice table, your $110 (stake) in the front groove. When you have used all your betting STAKE ($110) on 10 shooters you then COUNT the chips you have in the 2nd groove , EXAMPLE: $4,680.OO is now in your second groove -(less $50 tip for the dealers)

Could (not likely) be more $$ !  I will however Lay odds that you wont lose three days in a row using this play .

Just make sure you dont cover a shooter UNTIL they throw a natural or make a HIT———-and you PARLAY all Naturals on comeout roll for a point ,—————————odds ear marked for the play goes back into the front groove NOT the 2nd groove.

DADOS, CORRER EL GALLO .

Dados
I think what you are saying I have been doing in some loose form on some visits . I put down a $5 passline bet and $1 craps check if a 7 or 11 are rolled I do not parlay keep my craps bet up till a point is hit then use my winnings for my odds but I only play 1x odds till the next number is hit then double my odds. Guess I’m not increasing my bets fast enough

tercol58 - 21 March 2010 05:57 AM

Dados
I think what you are saying I have been doing in some loose form on some visits . I put down a $5 passline bet and $1 craps check if a 7 or 11 are rolled I do not parlay keep my craps bet up till a point is hit then use my winnings for my odds but I only play 1x odds till the next number is hit then double my odds. Guess I’m not increasing my bets fast enough

Any increase in your bet amounts increases your probability of busting your $100 (or $110). The reason for this is that, when you win a bet and increase your next bet, if you lose it you lose back some of what you’ve already won. Dados’ example of winning $4680 from a $110 stake is about as likely as the sun going supernova tomorrow. An aggressive strategy increase volatility substantially, which means you have wider swings in your results. That’s fine if it’s what you want, but understand the consequences - more busts. On another forum I posted a study comparing various betting strategies applied to a place 6 bet. The more progressive the betting, the more likely a bust, the greater the variance, but the bigger the wins when they come. I will post that here, too.

BTW, parlaying is an extreme example of progression; on a WL you completely throw away your win; in my view, you cannot afford to do that with only $100. Same thing with doubling your odds after one hit. I’m not surprised you’re busting. You’re using a betting strategy more appropriate for a $500 bankroll with only $100.

re - the craps check. It is only worthwhile if you have a session with a lot of comeout crap-outs. Of course, you can never anticipate such an eventuality. Overall, the craps check increases your chance of busting, because it knocks a dollar off all your wins on the passline. I ran a sim comparing $5 pass, single odds, with the same plus the $1 craps, using $100 as the bankroll and $100 as the win goal. The bust rate without the craps was about 20%, while with it the bust rate was about 33%. It also reduced the chance of winning $100 from 16% to 8%.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Aside from the differing degrees of volatility of the different bets themselves, the primary source of variance in craps comes from varying the bet amounts. Some people increase bet amounts after a win, some after a loss, some use a regression to “lock up” a win.

To illustrate the “continuum of progressiveness”, so to speak, I wrote a computer program to compare some different betting strategies for placing the 6. We will call them “the four guys”. Everyone starts at $18. Guy #1 then regresses twice before going back up, then regresses again. Guy #2 increases his bets a unit at a time, but only every other bet. Guy #3 progresses a unit at a time every bet. Guy #4 doubles first and then adds $18 each bet. So, their bet series are:

Guy #1 18,12,6,12,18,24,18,12,6,12,18, etc.
Guy #2 18,18,24,24,30,30,36,36,42,42,48, etc.
Guy #3 18,24,30,36,42,48,54,60,66,72,78, etc.
Guy #4 18,36,54,72,90,108,126,144,162,180,198, etc.

Each progression was expressed as an algorithm, so it could go indefinitely.

My program examines the net outcome for each of these “Guys” after different numbers of hits, always assuming that the next bet is lost. So, they all lose $18 if they lose the first bet. If they win the first, then lose, only Guy #1 has a profit, since he locked up his initial win. Here is a chart of all four Guys’ net results for zero through 20 hits, along with the probabilities of each number of hits:

“Mr. Conservative” is still ahead after two hits, but then falls behind fast. It only takes Guy #4 three hits to take the overall lead, but he doesn’t net a profit until two hits, so he’s losing money almost 80% of the time.

The program also figured the weighted net outcome for each guy for zero through ten hits:

Guy 0 weighted net is -0.413625
Guy 1 weighted net is -0.543476
Guy 2 weighted net is -0.639012
Guy 3 weighted net is -0.916979

This simply reflects the fact that the expectation is always edge * action; it also favors the lower bettors because it does not consider streaks longer than ten, which can occur.

I extended the program to simulate a series of place-6 bets and ran 10,000 sessions of 60 bets each. The overall W-L percentage was .453978, so the sample was slightly unfavorable. Each player experienced exactly the same bet results, since they were standing right next to each other, making the same bet but each in his own amount. It takes about 200 rolls to resolve 60 place bets on the six, so these sessions would take somewhere in the neighborhood of two hours.

      mean net result median net result standard deviation
Guy 1         -$14.95             -$14           $130
Guy 2         -$19.23             -$26           $166
Guy 3         -$22.24             -$37           $200
Guy 4         -$31.35             -$81           $323
 
        winning sessions breakeven sessions losing sessions
Guy 1               4599             6         5395
Guy 2               4342           47         5611
Guy 3               4223           19         5758
Guy 4               3965           12         6023
     
        lost > $300 lost > $500 won > $300 won > $500 max win max loss
Guy 1           154           3         63           0     $416     $509
Guy 2           384           5         357           22     $641     $579
Guy 3           659         17         618         128     $894     $644
Guy 4         2051         257       1424         614   $2112     $786

  skew
Guy 1 -.06
Guy 2 .25
Guy 3 .50
Guy 4 1.14

The idea here is to isolate the effect of progressing/regressing bets by looking at just one bet at a time.

Cheers,
Alan Shank

The $ 4,680 got the attention i was looking for !

Unless you increase your winning DO PASS bets (never take a winning do pass bet down (unless a professional brake appears)
ALL you will ever win at at Dice table is a trip back to the Casino on your money usually . (66 year observation) Color coming in ?! The famous cry of the potential Dice Brickwall customer !!!

ODDS, aside from the pass line, the dont pass line and the dont come line the HOUSE has more edge , most all dice books carry the correct odds on any play,(little information) -but ODDS has less to do with winning at CRAPS (careerwise) than does giving your money a fair gamble.

- SYSTEMS   .————ANY and ALL systems do work , some have a higher fatality rate than others-BUT- THEY ALL DIE ! A system player has no way of knowning if said SYSTEM will work for hours , days or longer OR WHETHER HE WILL HIT THE BRICKWALL AND GO BROKE ON THE FIRST SHOOTER (OR SHOOTERS).

I wont insult your intelligence giving you a/ or any system, they were there when i got to Vegas (1946) , they keep popping up every few years under different names ! THE SUCKER LIST for systems keep growing.

GRANTED , all betting should follow a systematic , rather than a random approach .HOWEVER the difference between playing the CHASING SYSTEMS , such a 1-2-4-8-etc , where the successful RESULT IS A single mininum unit or so , MY method of play , where a winning RESULT could be anywhere from a single unit to as much as $4,680,——————or ANOTHER winning decision !!

In the NORMAL playing of SYSTEMS -the player could be chasing A——PEANUT-with a PALM TREE , or his entire BETTING STAKE for a tiny PEANUT WIN . In my method of play ($4,680) , it could be the reverse, in that the HOUSE could be CHASING my PEANUT( 50% increases) with their PALM TREE or—-ENTIRE CASINO BANKROLL !!!

EVEN THE MOST SOPHISTICATED SYSTEMS , USELESSLY PUT TOGETHER BY MATHEMATICIANS CAN QUITE EASILY BE BROKEN DOWN TO WHERE THE AVERAGE 9 YEAR CAN UNDERSTAND AND PLAY THEM !

DADOS - CORRER EL GALLO y CISCO KID SENOR .

At 90 (near) a cup of coffee helps. Makes me think of Russian Louie and his Chum. I miss the stories .

$4,680.

ATTENTION $100 DOLLAR PERSON.

I would like to add this Dice note to my RECENT(Above) POST .

After TWO (50% progressive increases) Do Pass numbers are made(completed)you Senor are a NET WINNER . 

I can see you are not going to play $110 the way i told you , so i PLAYED IT FOR YOU (ISLAND VIEW YESTERDAY BEFORE THE ABOVE POST). I will recap the ACTION today or tomorrow , all $4,680————————which can be verified .(PIT BOSS)

The Dice Table i played on(Island View) was full , one spot open . On my right a man from Siagon , on my left a Gentleman with rings on all his RING FINGERS , next to him a young Lady by way of Biloxi , on her left a Grey Haired gent in his 70’s it appeared, on the left of said GREY was another GREY about the same age , at the FAR END OF THE TABLE a graduate of FRANK’S dice control School, (You could tell, he would set the dice then shove them at you with his FIST) , in the corner next to FIST (knuckle shoover)
was another gentleman with RINGS on ALL his RING FINGERS .

EXCITING SHOOTER MIX - I THINK YOU WILL ENJOY THE ACTION ! BLOW BY BLOW .

WATCH ,—AS DADOS DESTROY’S THE HOUSE , THEN WALKS AWAY WITH THE CRAP TABLE AND TWO SHOW GIRLS !!

DADOS , CORRER EL GALLO