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I used to be a come bet fan.. but then I did some math. There really is nothing good about this bet. It actually pays less than if you just place the number for whatever amount you were planning on betting on the come + odds..
for example..
5 dollar come bet + 25 odds on say the 5
Pay out on come bet winnings = $35 odds + 5 flat = $40 dollars total
Placing the 5 for $30 outright pays $42
So yes.. taking odds seem tempting.. but accounting for the flat wager it’s actually pays less than just placing it.
Also.. when the point is OFF your flat come bets are at risk.. so theres much less control over your bets.
Not saying place every number.. but if the last number rolled was say 8.. then your better off placing the 8 on the next roll instead of making the come bet.
I used to be a come bet fan.. but then I did some math. There really is nothing good about this bet. It actually pays less than if you just place the number for whatever amount you were planning on betting on the come + odds..
for example..
5 dollar come bet + 25 odds on say the 5
Pay out on come bet winnings = $35 odds + 5 flat = $40 dollars total
If the point is 5 odds will pay 3:2 $25 odds will give you 36+1 then 5 for the come = $42
Placing the 5 for $30 outright pays $42
So yes.. taking odds seem tempting.. but accounting for the flat wager it’s actually pays less than just placing it.
Also.. when the point is OFF your flat come bets are at risk.. so theres much less control over your bets.
Not saying place every number.. but if the last number rolled was say 8.. then your better off placing the 8 on the next roll instead of making the come bet.
just some food for thought
I agree that place bets give you more control. With come bets you never know what the point will be and you have to roll that number again to get paid.
The come bet is generally a bad bet in the game of craps, unless you are working it into a system or betting strategy that allows you to maximize the returns from a free true odds bet, and for the most part, only when that bet is at its maximum.
To play the come bet as a beginner, the bet is made after the come out roll for the table minimum, maybe $5 or $10. Be sure to get a crap check or 3-way craps for a buck or two, or three to hedge this bet. ALWAYS HEDGE YOUR BETS. This way any horn number (which occurs 1 out of 6 or 16% of the time) will pay. The 7 also pays, giving you a 2 out of 6 chance (33%) to win this bet. Any other number rolled forces your come bet there, and the number must be rolled again to get paid.
This is what makes the come bet inferior to a place bet or buying the number (4 & 10). A place or buy bet on a number hits for profit the first time that number is rolled, versus the even money come bet wager which needs the number to show twice to win 1 to 1. But if you take the free odds bet, your wager could become worth something, though it will still be tough to compete with a place bet that can be taken down after the first hit.
If you are a beginner or intermediate player at craps, you can stay away from the come bet and still do very well. But if you would like to develop a betting strategy that incorprates the come line, like the “Doey-Don’t Betting System”, then the come bet might work well for you.
My personal opinion, dont bet it. You’re better off placing numbers and taking back your original place bet when it hits.
Hedging lowers variance, always adding expected loss. The easiest way to have low variance is just to play the minimum on the passline.
Comparing come bets to place bets by comparing the payoff on points is a common logical error; the come bet, of course, has a 2:1 advantage on its comeout roll. You cannot compare a two-stage bet to a one-stage bet directly unless, of course, you do not care about facts, like our old friend JP.
Certainly, place bets offer more flexibility, especially the ability to call them off or take them down any time, which is handy if you believe in “trends” or numbers being “due”.
I stopped making come bets, myself, because I decided to expose as little of my money as possible to the house edge and maximize my variance - this is accomplished by sticking to pass line with odds. I also didn’t like the “mixed feeling” of a passline comeout when I had come bets on numbers - the seven wins the pass but loses the comes (and their odds, as I always had them work).
I wouldn’t necessarily call it “John Patrick”, or “Frank Scoblete”, or what have you.
I would simply identify it as good craps play. Or the culmination of all information and research done by those casino craps professionals who have amassed player experience over a number of years, and can share that experience with others.
After reading your reply, I am confused. Do you like the come bet, or don’t you? Are you an advocate of the come bet if you don’t bet it? What’s your point really?
If I walk up to a table to get into a game, and trend the table to be repeating place numbers often, then the come bet would be a good option, even though I don’t advocate it.
But I have developed and played systems that use the come bet, and work well. What system of betting do you use?
Remember, too, that the come bet for the 4 or the 10 is a bad bet in terms of payoff. You are better off placing or buying the 4 or 10 instead of grabbing a come bet there and taking odds.
A $5 come bet goes to the 4 and you take $10 odds. Taking double unit odds knocks down the house edge to almost one half of 1%. If your 4 hits again, and hopefully it does, you will win the $5 flat bet plus $20 for your odds.
Now I ask you, for your $15 investment on that 4, why wouldn’t you just place it for $15 and grab up $27 on the first hit instead of $25 after waiting for it to hit twice using the come?
After reading your reply, I am confused. Do you like the come bet, or don’t you? Are you an advocate of the come bet if you don’t bet it? What’s your point really?
Remember, too, that the come bet for the 4 or the 10 is a bad bet in terms of payoff. You are better off placing or buying the 4 or 10 instead of grabbing a come bet there and taking odds.
A $5 come bet goes to the 4 and you take $10 odds. Taking double unit odds knocks down the house edge to almost one half of 1%. If your 4 hits again, and hopefully it does, you will win the $5 flat bet plus $20 for your odds.
Now I ask you, for your $15 investment on that 4, why wouldn’t you just place it for $15 and grab up $27 on the first hit instead of $25 after waiting for it to hit twice using the come?
I wouldn’t necessarily call it “John Patrick”, or “Frank Scoblete”, or what have you.
I would simply identify it as good craps play. Or the culmination of all information and research done by those casino craps professionals who have amassed player experience over a number of years, and can share that experience with others.
After reading your reply, I am confused. Do you like the come bet, or don’t you? Are you an advocate of the come bet if you don’t bet it? What’s your point really?
If I walk up to a table to get into a game, and trend the table to be repeating place numbers often, then the come bet would be a good option, even though I don’t advocate it.
Just for fun, please tell me how you “trend the table”.
diceclass - 26 April 2010 02:47 PM
But I have developed and played systems that use the come bet, and work well. What system of betting do you use? Dice Class
I do not advocate any particular system of play. I don’t believe there is any method that is good for everybody, because everyone has different reasons for playing, different goals. I think I posted why I stopped making come bets. One reason is rational; the other is just my own personal feeling.
I mostly play passline with odds. Sometimes I start out without odds and use winnings (if any) to take odds and later to increase the odds multiple. It depends on how much I’m willing to lose in order to win. Recently I also played at Cache Creek here in California and bet a single Don’t Come, laying odds of different multiples depending on my bankroll status.
Rarely, I will play more aggressively and place the six/eight in addition to my pass/odds.
My basic principle of play is to minimize my betting on the flat bet and maximize my odds bets, since they provide variance without any additional expected loss.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I used to be a come bet fan.. but then I did some math. There really is nothing good about this bet. It actually pays less than if you just place the number for whatever amount you were planning on betting on the come + odds..
for example..
5 dollar come bet + 25 odds on say the 5
Pay out on come bet winnings = $35 odds + 5 flat = $40 dollars total
I suggest you do some more math. First of all, you want to take odds on the five in multiples of two, else you suffer “breakage”. Secondly, it pays 3:2, so if you bet $5 plus $26 (minor push), you win $44 if it hits. Also, of course, your initial $5 bet, before a point is established, has a 2:1 advantage.
Flash - 19 April 2010 11:21 AM
Placing the 5 for $30 outright pays $42
So yes.. taking odds seem tempting.. but accounting for the flat wager it’s actually pays less than just placing it.
Also.. when the point is OFF your flat come bets are at risk.. so theres much less control over your bets.
Not saying place every number.. but if the last number rolled was say 8.. then your better off placing the 8 on the next roll instead of making the come bet.
So, you think the fact that the eight just showed means your place 8 has a better chance of winning? Really?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Remember, too, that the come bet for the 4 or the 10 is a bad bet in terms of payoff. You are better off placing or buying the 4 or 10 instead of grabbing a come bet there and taking odds.
A $5 come bet goes to the 4 and you take $10 odds. Taking double unit odds knocks down the house edge to almost one half of 1%. If your 4 hits again, and hopefully it does, you will win the $5 flat bet plus $20 for your odds.
Now I ask you, for your $15 investment on that 4, why wouldn’t you just place it for $15 and grab up $27 on the first hit instead of $25 after waiting for it to hit twice using the come?
Hmmm… riddle me this.
- Dice Class
1. You do not make a come bet “for the 4 or 10”. You make a come bet, period. It has two stages, just like the pass bet. If you attempt to compare a come bet, after a 4 or 10 has been established as its point, with a place bet on the 4 or 10, you are like an ostrich with its head in the sand. You are comparing non-like things as if they were like things.
2. Perhaps you are talking about a put bet on the 4 or 10?? A put bet is like a pass/come bet made AFTER the comeout roll. Obviously, it is an even-money bet with only a .33 probability of winning, so has a large house edge. However, if you can take five times odds, it can make sense, relative to a place on the 4/10, which has a 6.67% house edge. Of course, if you are going to bet at least $20, then you should buy the 4/10, not place them.
Let’s compare, just for fun, your $15 place bet on the 4 with a $5 come bet, taking $10 odds.
bet $15 place 4 $5 come, $10 odds expected loss $1 $.07 SD $19.80 $14.29
So, your bet has 14 times the expected loss and more variance. For 60 of these, you expected to lose $60, I $4.24; your SD is $153, mine $111. This means that, if we both have bad luck, I lose a lot less than you. In order for you to come out ahead, we have to come out 1.32 SD better than expectation, which should happen about 9 percent of the time.
Now I ask you, which do you prefer?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
You are mxiing apples and oranges in your reply. I was speaking apples, and you replied with oranges. If you read the original post to which we are all adding our two cents, the topic is based on the difference between a come bet with odds and the place bet, mainly on the 4 and 10. This is what I am talking about.
I am not talking about buying the 4 or 10 60 times in one session. There’s no chance, no how of that happenning. Even if I bought the 4 and 10 on each shooter, and never hit them one time, I would have to have enough bankroll for 60 shooters. Right now, I play with enough for 10.
I like your math, and it’s good for a long, extended run of gaming, like 8 or 10 hours. Unfortunately, I do not have that kind of time to gamble. I play craps for 2 to 3 hours tops. So your math, over the time frame you indicated, doesn’t do much for me.
I like keeping the mind set of gambling on short runs that yield profit. Not figuring out how much I would lose over 60 shooters. Thanks for the info, though.
Anyways, I appreciate your modest strategy of simply betting the pass line with odds and nothing else until it hits. But if you walk up to a cold table, and don’t trend the rolls, your pass line betting is pooh. Now, your single unit don’t pass bet may be good, but how do you hedge the 7 and the 11 natural on the come out?
Trending a table is a powerful ability any craps player may utilize, but demands discipline.
Simply buy in as usual, except before you make a single bet, watch and mentally record what is happenning on the table. This is done somewhat similiar to counting cards in blackjack. No, I am not talking about memorizing every roll that shows. But rather, like blackjack, mentally record how profitbale the table is, what kind of numbers are appearing, how many points are being hit, who the dark side players are (and if they have more chips than anyone else at the table), and grab a general feel for the direction the game is going.
For example, if I walk up and buy-in on a $10 table with say, 5 players on it. Before I bet, I will give each player a “once over” and see what they’re up to. Identify the don’t player by his/her betting, and watch to see if they’re winning. This is a huge indicator for a cold table. I am a right bettor, so this aspect is important to me.
Say out of those 5 players, one is betting the dark side. If they’re still in the game, than that tips me off that points are not being made as much. Then I check out the other four players and their bankrolls. Do they have a lot of money? Say one of them does. What is he/she betting? Watch their bets and if they are getting paid. If they have some cheques in the rail, then did they buy in for huge, or they are winning? Try to put your finger on this.
Now its time to check out which numbers are appearing. If at this same table, everyone has a moderate place bet for the 8, say ... 30 bucks. Then I can immediately determine that the 8 is appearing often. Look at the hardways. Whose betting big on which hardways? Watch for the horn. Is the horn appearant, or is it absent from the current hand?
Try to determine what is happenning at the table before you bet. Soak it all in. See how many players are on the pass line. Are they playing max odds. I will tell you for a fact, if no one is on the pass line with odds, you can bet that a point hasn’t been made in a while. Take some advice from the simple bets made by your fellow gamblers. See what they’re up to. Watch the rolls. Realize whether the place numbers are showing often before the 7 kills all the bets.
Then, take a position based on the table trend which you just determined, and apply your betting strategy.
Believe me, it will make you a better gambler to know what is happenning on the table before you bet.
Try it sometime, and I know it will make a difference.
I like your math, and it’s good for a long, extended run of gaming, like 8 or 10 hours. Unfortunately, I do not have that kind of time to gamble. I play craps for 2 to 3 hours tops. So your math, over the time frame you indicated, doesn’t do much for me.
- Dice Class
Amen, Dice Class! No disrespect, but Alan you think like a Vulcan. I can’t argue with your calculations, but I have no use for them either. Why do you even gamble? Your analysis should conclude that gambling is illogical.
You are mxiing apples and oranges in your reply. I was speaking apples, and you replied with oranges. If you read the original post to which we are all adding our two cents, the topic is based on the difference between a come bet with odds and the place bet, mainly on the 4 and 10. This is what I am talking about.
But a come bet is not an apple, like a place bet on the 4 or 10, or any other place bet. That is your error. You cannot make a come bet on a particular number. You take “pot luck”. You can however, compare the resolution of the bets, as I did.
diceclass - 26 April 2010 05:30 PM
I am not talking about buying the 4 or 10 60 times in one session. There’s no chance, no how of that happenning. Even if I bought the 4 and 10 on each shooter, and never hit them one time, I would have to have enough bankroll for 60 shooters. Right now, I play with enough for 10.
I like your math, and it’s good for a long, extended run of gaming, like 8 or 10 hours. Unfortunately, I do not have that kind of time to gamble. I play craps for 2 to 3 hours tops. So your math, over the time frame you indicated, doesn’t do much for me.
You were talking about PLACING, not BUYING the 4/10. However, either way, it takes, on average, 4 rolls to resolve a place or buy bet on the 4 or 10, so 60 of those will take, roughly, 240 rolls, or 2-3 hours. The average hand is 8.5 rolls, so about 28 shooters in 240 rolls, on average. As far as come bets go, you could resolve 60 of them in a pretty short time if you made a come bet every non-comeout roll. If you let each one resolve before repeating the bet, then 60 would take about two hours, since a line bet takes 3.375 rolls, on average, to resolve.
In any case, I just used 60 bets because that’s is roughly the length of sessions that I play. The math, however, applies to one bet, or any number of bets. The ev’s and SD’s I showed in the box are for one bet.
Anyways, I appreciate your modest strategy of simply betting the pass line with odds and nothing else until it hits. But if you walk up to a cold table, and don’t trend the rolls, your pass line betting is pooh. Now, your single unit don’t pass bet may be good, but how do you hedge the 7 and the 11 natural on the come out?
... or do you just lose when those numbers show?
- Dice Class
I don’t hedge, ever. Hedging is pretty pointless in most cases. What do you think hedging does for you? Are you aware of its actual effect? Yes, it reduces or eliminates the loss on the comeout 7/11 if you’re betting DP, but it also cancels your comeout wins on 2 or 3, doesn’t it? It also reduces your wins on point numbers, doesn’t it? Are you aware that those hedge bets add to your expected loss? They also reduce variance, which means you will win less and lose less with good/bad luck. It also means you have to be luckier to come out ahead. In my view, if you want very little variance, just bet minimum pass line. As an even-money bet with an almost-50% chance to win, it has the least variance of any craps bet.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
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