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I like your math, and it’s good for a long, extended run of gaming, like 8 or 10 hours. Unfortunately, I do not have that kind of time to gamble. I play craps for 2 to 3 hours tops. So your math, over the time frame you indicated, doesn’t do much for me.
- Dice Class
Amen, Dice Class! No disrespect, but Alan you think like a Vulcan. I can’t argue with your calculations, but I have no use for them either. Why do you even gamble? Your analysis should conclude that gambling is illogical.
You fail to understand my calculations, obviously. The reason that gambling is not illogical is VARIANCE. Variance gives us all a chance to win. If it were not for variance, then we would always lose 1.4% of our pass line bets, etc. etc.
Try this:
bet $5 pass and $5 don’t pass on each comeout roll.
What is going to happen?
You can never win, because any pass win is offset by a DP loss. You can only lose, when the 12 shows.
The only variance is how often the 12 shows.
You have eliminated almost all the variance; this is the extreme example of hedging your bets.
Now if, after a point is established, you take odds on the point (or lay odds, but not both), you have put variance back in. Now, if you are lucky, you can come out ahead.
To answer your question, I gamble because I enjoy it and I understand that I have a chance to win. In fact, I know as much about my chances of winning in a session as I know about the chances of rolling different numbers on the dice.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Trending a table is a powerful ability any craps player may utilize, but demands discipline.
Simply buy in as usual, except before you make a single bet, watch and mentally record what is happenning on the table. This is done somewhat similiar to counting cards in blackjack. No, I am not talking about memorizing every roll that shows. But rather, like blackjack, mentally record how profitbale the table is, what kind of numbers are appearing, how many points are being hit, who the dark side players are (and if they have more chips than anyone else at the table), and grab a general feel for the direction the game is going.
For example, if I walk up and buy-in on a $10 table with say, 5 players on it. Before I bet, I will give each player a “once over” and see what they’re up to. Identify the don’t player by his/her betting, and watch to see if they’re winning. This is a huge indicator for a cold table. I am a right bettor, so this aspect is important to me.
Say out of those 5 players, one is betting the dark side. If they’re still in the game, than that tips me off that points are not being made as much. Then I check out the other four players and their bankrolls. Do they have a lot of money? Say one of them does. What is he/she betting? Watch their bets and if they are getting paid. If they have some cheques in the rail, then did they buy in for huge, or they are winning? Try to put your finger on this.
Now its time to check out which numbers are appearing. If at this same table, everyone has a moderate place bet for the 8, say ... 30 bucks. Then I can immediately determine that the 8 is appearing often. Look at the hardways. Whose betting big on which hardways? Watch for the horn. Is the horn appearant, or is it absent from the current hand?
Try to determine what is happenning at the table before you bet. Soak it all in. See how many players are on the pass line. Are they playing max odds. I will tell you for a fact, if no one is on the pass line with odds, you can bet that a point hasn’t been made in a while. Take some advice from the simple bets made by your fellow gamblers. See what they’re up to. Watch the rolls. Realize whether the place numbers are showing often before the 7 kills all the bets.
Just how long does this process take? Are you taking up a spot at the table during this process? Does a dealer ever ask you whether you are going to bet or not?
diceclass - 26 April 2010 05:43 PM
Then, take a position based on the table trend which you just determined, and apply your betting strategy.
Believe me, it will make you a better gambler to know what is happenning on the table before you bet.
Try it sometime, and I know it will make a difference.
- Dice Class
Let me ask you a question. Suppose you watch things and you see that a don’t player has very few cheques left, but “rightside” players have lots of cheques. Do you actually believe that pass bets and other bets on numbers have a higher probability of winning at this table? Do you have some conception of how that is possible? Do you think the dice are worn on one side or something that actually changes the distribution? Do you believe that different dice have different probability distributions? Think about it. What physical reason could there be for a trend that actually has predictive value? How would that trend change? What would happen to then alter the distribution in the other direction?
Or, are you looking for a “dice controller”? How many of them do you think are out there? Are you one? If so, why would you care about any “table conditions”, since you would be altering the probabilities?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
You fail to understand my calculations, obviously. The reason that gambling is not illogical is VARIANCE. Variance gives us all a chance to win. If it were not for variance, then we would always lose 1.4% of our pass line bets, etc. etc.
VARIANCE… I got it.
To answer your question, I gamble because I enjoy it and I understand that I have a chance to win. In fact, I know as much about my chances of winning in a session as I know about the chances of rolling different numbers on the dice.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Trending a table is a powerful ability any craps player may utilize, but demands discipline.
Simply buy in as usual, except before you make a single bet, watch and mentally record what is happenning on the table. This is done somewhat similiar to counting cards in blackjack. No, I am not talking about memorizing every roll that shows. But rather, like blackjack, mentally record how profitbale the table is, what kind of numbers are appearing, how many points are being hit, who the dark side players are (and if they have more chips than anyone else at the table), and grab a general feel for the direction the game is going.
For example, if I walk up and buy-in on a $10 table with say, 5 players on it. Before I bet, I will give each player a “once over” and see what they’re up to. Identify the don’t player by his/her betting, and watch to see if they’re winning. This is a huge indicator for a cold table. I am a right bettor, so this aspect is important to me.
Say out of those 5 players, one is betting the dark side. If they’re still in the game, than that tips me off that points are not being made as much. Then I check out the other four players and their bankrolls. Do they have a lot of money? Say one of them does. What is he/she betting? Watch their bets and if they are getting paid. If they have some cheques in the rail, then did they buy in for huge, or they are winning? Try to put your finger on this.
Now its time to check out which numbers are appearing. If at this same table, everyone has a moderate place bet for the 8, say ... 30 bucks. Then I can immediately determine that the 8 is appearing often. Look at the hardways. Whose betting big on which hardways? Watch for the horn. Is the horn appearant, or is it absent from the current hand?
Try to determine what is happenning at the table before you bet. Soak it all in. See how many players are on the pass line. Are they playing max odds. I will tell you for a fact, if no one is on the pass line with odds, you can bet that a point hasn’t been made in a while. Take some advice from the simple bets made by your fellow gamblers. See what they’re up to. Watch the rolls. Realize whether the place numbers are showing often before the 7 kills all the bets.
Just how long does this process take? Are you taking up a spot at the table during this process? Does a dealer ever ask you whether you are going to bet or not?
diceclass - 26 April 2010 05:43 PM
Then, take a position based on the table trend which you just determined, and apply your betting strategy.
Believe me, it will make you a better gambler to know what is happenning on the table before you bet.
Try it sometime, and I know it will make a difference.
- Dice Class
Let me ask you a question. Suppose you watch things and you see that a don’t player has very few cheques left, but “rightside” players have lots of cheques. Do you actually believe that pass bets and other bets on numbers have a higher probability of winning at this table? Do you have some conception of how that is possible? Do you think the dice are worn on one side or something that actually changes the distribution? Do you believe that different dice have different probability distributions? Think about it. What physical reason could there be for a trend that actually has predictive value? How would that trend change? What would happen to then alter the distribution in the other direction?
Or, are you looking for a “dice controller”? How many of them do you think are out there? Are you one? If so, why would you care about any “table conditions”, since you would be altering the probabilities?
Diceclass? Any response to this?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
To me, the number #1 reason why the come bet is a bad bet…...loser on the come out 7 after a point is made. It may save your odds, but so what…you got to go and climb that mountain all over again. And all, and I mean ALL hot rolls will have at least one come out 7 in it. What makes it worse is that all the books will tell you that the odds are the best bet in the house, so on a come out roll shouldn’t you have them working? Well, come out 7 and down go the odds. You don’t have the odds working and your a sucker.
To me, the number #1 reason why the come bet is a bad bet…...loser on the come out 7 after a point is made. It may save your odds, but so what…you got to go and climb that mountain all over again. And all, and I mean ALL hot rolls will have at least one come out 7 in it. What makes it worse is that all the books will tell you that the odds are the best bet in the house, so on a come out roll shouldn’t you have them working? Well, come out 7 and down go the odds. You don’t have the odds working and your a sucker.
Do you think the pass line is a bad bet? The come bet is exactly the same thing, just shifted forward in time. Perhaps you believe in superstitions about a seven being more likely at some times than others.
You talk about the come bet(s) going down on a comeout seven after the pass point has been made, but not about the come bet winning on the seven out for the pass. “Pay the don’ts and the last come!”
Cheers,
Alan Shank
To me, the number #1 reason why the come bet is a bad bet…...loser on the come out 7 after a point is made. It may save your odds, but so what…you got to go and climb that mountain all over again. And all, and I mean ALL hot rolls will have at least one come out 7 in it. What makes it worse is that all the books will tell you that the odds are the best bet in the house, so on a come out roll shouldn’t you have them working? Well, come out 7 and down go the odds. You don’t have the odds working and your a sucker.
Do you think the pass line is a bad bet? The come bet is exactly the same thing, just shifted forward in time. Perhaps you believe in superstitions about a seven being more likely at some times than others.
You talk about the come bet(s) going down on a comeout seven after the pass point has been made, but not about the come bet winning on the seven out for the pass. “Pay the don’ts and the last come!”
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I like the place bet better for a couple of reasons. One, you have control over the numbers I would never want the 4 or 10. Two, you win on the first hit with a place bet, you dont with the come. Three, Last come gets some….big deal, so your flat line bet and come bet are a wash. You still lose 2,3,4,5 or more times from all your odds bets and on multiple numbers. Someone who is lucky enough to get five working come bets with all those odds would get crushed. Four, now the 2,3,12 hurt you and only the 11 helps. You now have three more numbers 2,12 and 7 working against you. Assuming the 3/11 is a wash. Five, I have seen players play the come and forget to place a come bet after a number rolls, guess what, down comes the come bet and you have wasted a roll trying to get that number back.
I like the place bet better for a couple of reasons. One, you have control over the numbers I would never want the 4 or 10.
Well, if you place the 4/10, you pay 6.67% (better with a buy), so that’s a good reason not to bet them. But on a come bet, the 4/10 are just as good as any other number for the odds bet, because they pay true odds.
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
Two, you win on the first hit with a place bet, you dont with the come.
Sigh. Same old tired argument. They are different kinds of bets - place has just one stage, come has two. To compare stage two of the come to the only stage of the place is to hide your head in the sand like an ostrich. The only rational way to compare them is to evaluate them separately, in total. Come bet has 1.4% HA, no HA on the odds, low volatility on the flat, higher on the odds. Place 6/8 has 1.515% HA, volatility in between come and odds. Place bets have more flexibility, for sure.
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
Three, Last come gets some….big deal, so your flat line bet and come bet are a wash.
Well, you should like that, as it acts as a hedge. On another thread (A Different Don’t Pass System), you touted some hedge bets, right?
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
You still lose 2,3,4,5 or more times from all your odds bets and on multiple numbers. Someone who is lucky enough to get five working come bets with all those odds would get crushed. Four, now the 2,3,12 hurt you and only the 11 helps. You now have three more numbers 2,12 and 7 working against you. Assuming the 3/11 is a wash.
Here again, you are focusing on particular sequences that are bad for come bets. I can come up with the same kind of argument. A point is established; you make one or more place bets; I make a come bet; the seven rolls; I win, you lose all the place bets.
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
Five, I have seen players play the come and forget to place a come bet after a number rolls, guess what, down comes the come bet and you have wasted a roll trying to get that number back.
That is the fault of the player, not the bet.
To summarize: the come bet and the place 6/8 are actually pretty similar in their overall results. To compare what happens without taking the come bet comeout roll into account is pointless and misleading.
The drawback to point betting is that, aside from the 6/8, the HA is substantially higher than for the come, although with the trend toward collecting the vig on buy bets only after a win you can get a better deal with buy bets; however, then you lose considerable flexibility in the amount of your bets.
The flexibility in come betting is that you can make just one come bet, or you can make more, sometimes getting all the numbers covered. You can also take odds in any multiple up to the table max, or none. Of course, the biggest advantage of come betting is that the odds have no HA, adding volatility without adding expected loss.
“You pays your money and you takes your choice!”
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I like the place bet better for a couple of reasons. One, you have control over the numbers I would never want the 4 or 10.
Well, if you place the 4/10, you pay 6.67% (better with a buy), so that’s a good reason not to bet them. But on a come bet, the 4/10 are just as good as any other number for the odds bet, because they pay true odds.
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
Two, you win on the first hit with a place bet, you dont with the come.
Sigh. Same old tired argument. They are different kinds of bets - place has just one stage, come has two. To compare stage two of the come to the only stage of the place is to hide your head in the sand like an ostrich. The only rational way to compare them is to evaluate them separately, in total. Come bet has 1.4% HA, no HA on the odds, low volatility on the flat, higher on the odds. Place 6/8 has 1.515% HA, volatility in between come and odds. Place bets have more flexibility, for sure.
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
Three, Last come gets some….big deal, so your flat line bet and come bet are a wash.
Well, you should like that, as it acts as a hedge. On another thread (A Different Don’t Pass System), you touted some hedge bets, right?
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
You still lose 2,3,4,5 or more times from all your odds bets and on multiple numbers. Someone who is lucky enough to get five working come bets with all those odds would get crushed. Four, now the 2,3,12 hurt you and only the 11 helps. You now have three more numbers 2,12 and 7 working against you. Assuming the 3/11 is a wash.
Here again, you are focusing on particular sequences that are bad for come bets. I can come up with the same kind of argument. A point is established; you make one or more place bets; I make a come bet; the seven rolls; I win, you lose all the place bets.
arrgy - 18 June 2010 08:30 PM
Five, I have seen players play the come and forget to place a come bet after a number rolls, guess what, down comes the come bet and you have wasted a roll trying to get that number back.
That is the fault of the player, not the bet.
To summarize: the come bet and the place 6/8 are actually pretty similar in their overall results. To compare what happens without taking the come bet comeout roll into account is pointless and misleading.
The drawback to point betting is that, aside from the 6/8, the HA is substantially higher than for the come, although with the trend toward collecting the vig on buy bets only after a win you can get a better deal with buy bets; however, then you lose considerable flexibility in the amount of your bets.
The flexibility in come betting is that you can make just one come bet, or you can make more, sometimes getting all the numbers covered. You can also take odds in any multiple up to the table max, or none. Of course, the biggest advantage of come betting is that the odds have no HA, adding volatility without adding expected loss.
“You pays your money and you takes your choice!”
Cheers,
Alan Shank
What it boils down to for me is simple..choice. If I have $30 in my pocket and walk up to the craps table, I will choose to play don’t. However, on those rare occasions when I bet the other side I want to decide how to spend that money, that gives me power. I would rather walk up to the table drop the $30 down and tell the dealer 30 on the 6 or 8. I get the best two numbers on the board. I have a good chance of getting my money back, and if I do win, I have that option of walking away a slightly richer person, pressing it up, or even taking another number. Thats what the place bet does for me, in exchange for that choice I give up a couple of bucks and I am ok with that. The come bet does not do that. You have no choice on which number to select, so you could always end up with 4s and 10s. And unless I back it up with another come bet, I dont really have the option of keeping it up there if it hits. Thats not choice, thats luck. So I drop down $10 the 6 hits and I give my odds, hoping that it hits again. I overcame the odds and mathematics to have it hit once and now I have to hope it hits again. I like choice its powerful.
What it boils down to for me is simple..choice. If I have $30 in my pocket and walk up to the craps table, I will choose to play don’t. However, on those rare occasions when I bet the other side I want to decide how to spend that money, that gives me power. I would rather walk up to the table drop the $30 down and tell the dealer 30 on the 6 or 8. I get the best two numbers on the board. I have a good chance of getting my money back, and if I do win, I have that option of walking away a slightly richer person, pressing it up, or even taking another number. Thats what the place bet does for me, in exchange for that choice I give up a couple of bucks and I am ok with that. The come bet does not do that. You have no choice on which number to select, so you could always end up with 4s and 10s. And unless I back it up with another come bet, I dont really have the option of keeping it up there if it hits. Thats not choice, thats luck. So I drop down $10 the 6 hits and I give my odds, hoping that it hits again. I overcame the odds and mathematics to have it hit once and now I have to hope it hits again. I like choice its powerful.
But, when you play the don’t, you don’t have that choice, do you? You have to take what points come up. So what’s the difference? You could make lay bets on the darkside, picking your points. Why don’t you do that?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I ran a couple of simulations to compare the efficacy of placing the 6 and 8 (unless one is the point) alongside a pass bet with double odds, as opposed to making one come bet with double odds on top of the passline.
Conditions: each player made $5 pass bet, always taking double odds, until 200 rolls are reached (about two hours’ play)
the game ends after 200 rolls, although any outstanding pass or come bets are resolved
After the comeout, player 1 places the 6 and 8 for $6 each, unless one is the point.
After the comeout, player 2 makes a single $5 come bet, taking double odds
I played 10,000 games of each strategy, starting with the same seed for the RNG.
The results:
player player 1 player 2 avg rolls 200 206 avg bets resolved 166 179 avg bet handle $1093 $1251 mean net -$6.44 -$3.88 median net -$5 -$4 mode of net +$14 to +$24 +$21 to +$31 standard deviation $148 $161 winning sessions 4840 4864 breakeven sessions 33 31 losing sessions 5127 5105 sessions +200 or better 841 1039 sessions -200 or worse 973 1129
Pretty damn close, huh? I don’t see any evidence here whatsoever that the come bet is a “bad” bet, do you? At these levels, the come player is putting a bit more out there, resulting in a bit more variance, but with a very slightly lower loss, due to the 0 HA on odds bets.
Cheers,
Alan Shank (I’m not getting those numbers lined up very well.)
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