Southern-Comfort - 15 January 2012 09:53 PM
JHPA - 15 January 2012 09:41 PM
I would love to believe it is possible, so I can learn how to take advantage of it. But I can not find any real evidence to support it.
So there you have it - thats how I play craps
So, what exactly would you accept as proof that dice can be influenced? And let’s not get into stupid things like throwing a given number on demand… and I won’t require a golfer to get a hole in one on demad as proof that there are different levels of golf ball influencing.
To me, proof is in statistics.
No, not a hole in one every time.
I have a dice game on my PC. It randomly “throws the dice”. It tracks the results and compares them against what would be expected. Over time, the distribution gets more and more identical to the random expected distrbution. It is interesting that, even over a couple of hundred rolls, the actual distribution can be very different from the expected distribution. For example, as of right now, there have been 189 rolls since I last reset the counter. There have been 43 sevens rolled - a normal distribution would have 31 sevens rolled out of 189 rolls. (This does reflect what we all experince at a table, right: At a craps table, 189 rolls could take about an hour and a half. Sometimes, we see a lot more sevens during that time; other times there could be a lot less.)
So here is my test: I would believe that a certain technique for throwing is influencing the dice if the shooter kept track of throws in the same way and compared the results to what would be expected randomly. There is a statistical test which would determine - to a certain degree of confidence (for example 98%) that the actual distribution is statistically different from the expected distribution. This will take quite a number of rolls to be statistically valid….I am sure some statistician could determine the minimum number. This is not some simple experiment….I believe the number of throws to be statistically valid could be in the thousands. But, if the people who are selling books and making money off of seminars are serious about this, they could easily arrange the test.
For that matter, I would be willing to ignored the human element, have a robotic machine throw the dice identically - as long as it is on a regulation table, with pyramids and it meets the requirement to hit the back wall. If a robot could do it, I would believe that it would be theoretically posssible for a person with skill a discipline could duplicate it.