basicstrategy777 - 27 March 2011 07:50 AM

DeMango - 27 March 2011 06:32 AM

So we bet zero. Or both you guys learn to shoot the dice as opposed to feeding chicken.

There is no question in my mind that dice setting is a complete and total waste of time and does not work

The new bumper crop of craps winning hopefuls, which feed the proponents of this dark art, would be better served learning the game and learning how to gamble.

777

Here is the difference in gambling from being a DI. When you shoot it is called gambling. I would follow Alan’s advice and bet zero. When I shoot we have a chance. I’m thinking pass line and the 6 & 8, but Alan might disagree. I’m sure he will chime in shortly!

DeMango - 28 March 2011 08:00 AM

Here is the difference in gambling from being a DI. When you shoot it is called gambling. I would follow Alan’s advice and bet zero.

Now YOU are putting (the wrong) words in my mouth! I have never advised betting zero. I only advise understanding that every bet except the odds bets carries a negative expectation. From this, one can conclude that, by betting less on the flat bet (or other bets) and more on the odds, one actually REDUCES expected loss. By leaving the flat bet the same and ADDING odds, one does not reduce expected loss. This is what BS777 does not seem to grasp. This is obscured by stating that taking odds reduces the HA.

Why is the HA for the flat bet and the odds combined, whereas the HAs for place six and place 5 and place 4 are NOT? Why don’t the books simply show these HAs?

pass/come 1.41%
pass/come odds 0%
place 6, 8 1.52%
place 5, 9 4.0%
place 4, 10 6.67%

DeMango - 28 March 2011 08:00 AM

When I shoot we have a chance. I’m thinking pass line and the 6 & 8, but Alan might disagree. I’m sure he will chime in shortly!

Well, when BS777 or I shoot, we still have a chance—variance guarantees it. When you shoot, apparently you believe that you can modify the actual probability distribution, as opposed to BS777’s delusions about the distribution just naturally being different at different times. I rate them about equal, myself.

Question: If the pass point is 4 or 10, do you still use the same set as you do when the point is 5, 6, 8, 9?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

DeMango - 28 March 2011 08:00 AM

When I shoot we have a chance. I’m thinking pass line and the 6 & 8, but Alan might disagree. I’m sure he will chime in shortly!

Well, when BS777 or I shoot, we still have a chance—variance guarantees it. When you shoot, apparently you believe that you can modify the actual probability distribution, as opposed to BS777’s delusions about the distribution just naturally being different at different times. I rate them about equal, myself.

Question: If the pass point is 4 or 10, do you still use the same set as you do when the point is 5, 6, 8, 9?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Yes Alan;
    My 4 or 10 is usually one die off axis, using the Hardway or All 7 set. So therefore a 6 or 1 shows up to match a 4 or 3. I’m keeping who I brought to the dance, in order to repeat the result. Normally I do quite poorly with two axial sets that are called V3, V2 etc. I know some would use the V2 to try to produce the 4 or 10, I’m just not that good!

DeMango

DeMango - 28 March 2011 03:03 PM

Yes Alan;
    My 4 or 10 is usually one die off axis, using the Hardway or All 7 set. So therefore a 6 or 1 shows up to match a 4 or 3. I’m keeping who I brought to the dance, in order to repeat the result. Normally I do quite poorly with two axial sets that are called V3, V2 etc. I know some would use the V2 to try to produce the 4 or 10, I’m just not that good!
DeMango

There are a lot of different names for the sets. Personally, I name them by rotational axes, i.e. no6-1 means the die rotates around the 6-1 axis, so that, on a “successful” throw, the die cannot end up on either 6 or 1. There are different ways to arrange the faces, but this implies control over the pitch as well as the axis, which is a “whole ‘nother thing”.

On the comeout, I would use both dice on no6-1, so that:

4 sevens   (25%)
no 2 or 12
no 3 or 11

If the point is 5, 6, 8 or 9, I would use no5-2, no6-1, so that:

2 sevens (12.5%)
3 sixes and 3 eights (18.8% each)
2 nines and fives (12.5% each)
1 four and ten (6.3% each)

If the point is 4 or 10, I would use no4-3, no6-1, so that:

2 sevens (12.5%)
2 each of 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 (12.5% each)

Apparently the “Hardway” set is the same as my no6-1, no6-1, which is a “high-sevens” set. Unless you glue the dice together, it seems to me this is not a very good choice for the point roll. Actually, the “All-sevens” set is the same axis as the Hardway, just different faces showing. Do you really believe that you have control over the pitch as well as the axis? The V2 set is apparently no4-3/no6-1 and V3 is no5-2/no6-1, the two sets that, based on axis control, are best for point rolls.

So, how good do you think you are? What pattern of “not good” makes you think the Hardway set is better for you?

Well, I don’t believe any of it, myself, but I have studied the math of it extensively, including running many, many simulations in WinCraps using different probability files.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Alan;
    You really have to chart yourself in the casino to see what your dice are doing. There are five “Foundation Frequencies” that a pair of dice can do: Primary Face Hit, Double Pitch, Single Pitch, One Die Off Axis and Both Dice Off Axis. With the Hardways, measure your results as a ratio between PFH’s and DP’s. If you DP too much then use the A7’s for the point cycle and the HW’s for the comeout. Realize that you are going to see a 6 or 1 or both about 50% of the time which will decrease your sevens considerably. In short I would reccomend the book; “The Mad Professor’s Crapshooting Bible” I’ve said too much already…....

Oh and stay away from John Patrick (making a cross with both hands)

DeMango - 28 March 2011 07:46 PM

Alan;
    You really have to chart yourself in the casino to see what your dice are doing. There are five “Foundation Frequencies” that a pair of dice can do: Primary Face Hit, Double Pitch, Single Pitch, One Die Off Axis and Both Dice Off Axis. With the Hardways, measure your results as a ratio between PFH’s and DP’s. If you DP too much then use the A7’s for the point cycle and the HW’s for the comeout. Realize that you are going to see a 6 or 1 or both about 50% of the time which will decrease your sevens considerably. In short I would reccomend the book; “The Mad Professor’s Crapshooting Bible” I’ve said too much already…....

But don’t you realize that you can’t distinguish between your expected 44.4% “on-axis” results and ones where your dice actually stayed on axis, eliminating the other 20 outcomes. You have to SEE what the dice do. It takes thousands of rolls to get enough info to say you have evidence that you are influencing the dice. But if you watch them, preferably record your throw in super-slo motion, especially with two different colored dice, you can see what’s actually happening. If the dice hit the back wall and bounce off to the sides, it doesn’t matter what the result is—it’s random!

DeMango - 28 March 2011 07:46 PM

Oh and stay away from John Patrick (making a cross with both hands)

You gotta be kidding! > You should have read some of the exchanges among me, a guy named Mason and JP on rec.gambling.craps. My first taste of JP was when I bought his book, “Advanced Craps”. Even then, I knew enough to see that he was an innumerate asshole.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

In the past there have been high speeed films taken. It really does seem like random on film. The end results are what matters however.  Take what the table gives you and bet accordingly. There are no shortcuts.

DeMango - 29 March 2011 06:55 AM

In the past there have been high speeed films taken. It really does seem like random on film.

Then it is random.

DeMango - 29 March 2011 06:55 AM

The end results are what matters however.  Take what the table gives you and bet accordingly. There are no shortcuts.

That’s right; there are no shortcuts. You just have to get lucky. Speaking of which, I’m headed up to Jackson Rancheria today to check out their version of card craps. Got an e-mail back from their Table Games Manager that said, “We offer a 3x-4x-5x game with limits of $5-$500 for flat
bets with $1000 limit on odds.  Lay bets are the inverse of this.  Prop
bets are limited to $1500 max payout.  I would go into more detail, but
I have read many of your posts and know you are well versed in craps
structure, so I am confident you understand our structure.  Good Luck!”

I don’t know on which Forum he’s read my posts, or even rec.gambling.craps.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

There are about 10 casinos in MS where I have way too many friends! And too many stories that begin with; “Before Katrina….”