Craps Forum
1. In your example of bankroll swings you say you would have quit when it reached 104 units, the high-water mark and a profit of 4 units. Why would you not have quit at the previous level of 102 units, which you later give as your win goal? Did you somehow know you were going to win another 2 units? And how did you know that 104 units was your high-water mark?
2. The rule of thumb is that in a fair game (i.e. one with no house advantage), the probability of reaching a win goal is obtained by dividing your starting bankroll by the desired ending bankroll. You say you buy in for 100 units and will quit when you reach 102 units. 100 / 102 = 0.98. Of course the house does have an advantage in craps, but I should think you still have at least a 96% chance of reaching your win goal of 2 units. No wonder, then, that your experience, presumably limited, has been positive.
1. OK, you caught me with my pants down. The “quit at 104” was a hypothetical example that violates the principle of quitting at 102 as I stated later, which I HAVE been doing. What can I say. Sorry for the sloppiness.
2. 96% to 98% feels about right. I wish I could run a computer simulation with that “quit at 102 or better” rule for a few thousand plays and see how it works out. I just don’t have the brain cells in my old age. (-;
I’ve been busy all day, but just before logging on here, I ran a few more simulations using the strategy I described, again starting with 100 units. They came out like:
Come outs: Units at quitting:
2 107
3 103
5 109
2 103
Total units gained: 22
So far, this has been typical. Because the objective is to walk away with 2 units or more, and not to party, I am perfectly content with the 2-unit win goal, even if it means leaving the table after only a couple of minutes. If I get greedy and increase it to 103 or 104 or 105, I will only hurt myself.
A 2 unit gain doesn’t seem like much, but keep in mind that it’s virtually always more than two. The 4 plays above are typical. When those units are, say, $25, $50 or $100 each, it can add up rather nicely for a few minutes’ playing. It would be nice to be able to play with four or five-figure units. Want to stake me? (-;
The only thing yet unresolved for me is a loss limit. Right now I’m quitting if it gets down to around 87 or 88. That seems to work pretty well. So far, the 102-or-better quitting points are outnumbering the loss limit quitting points by about 15 to 1, maybe more.
That’s my basic approach to craps. Walk quietly up to the table, play the strategy, hit 102 or better, and walk quietly away from the table.
