Greatest 7 Shooter in the World - 09 December 2011 06:11 AM

Sancho Panza - 07 December 2011 10:40 AM

Greatest 7 Shooter in the World - 30 October 2011 06:14 AM

The “no 4 bet” is my bread and butter man.  I have found using a modified betting strat of laying the 4 for say 307 and covering 3 inside # for 50 each. 

Taking into account your banging the 4 for all its worth, I wonder whether you have considered or actually tried splitting the lay bet into halves with the No 10 partner?
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Actually i am 100000% against laying 2 numbers on the come out or anytime else.  Instead of 3 chances to loose now i have 6 chances to loose for the same payout.  Not much incentive.

I will always stand by my statement of Lay 4 or Lay 10 is the best bet in the casino.

G7 -

I still can not see your reasoning behind going against one # or the other and not spliiting the bet between both the 4 and 10 -

E.G. - You lay $100 against the 4 AND the 10 - the vig is the same as if you were to lay $200 against either one or the other -

      A 7 is thrown on the CO - you win both bets - same result if you had $200 on either # -

      A 4 OR 10 is thrown on the CO -  you lose one $100 bet - and the other stays up OR you elect to remove it -

  Had you had $200 on one 4 or 7 - you would have lost all if that # was thrown - OR - lost nothing if the other # was thrown -

  Personally, I feel splitting the wager over two #‘s - than putting it all on one # - would be the better option ! 

  If you wanted to replace the lost bet - it would only cost 1/2 as much my way as opposed to your way ! 

  Obviously, you see things in a different light than I !

Yeah this will be a big difference of opinion across this board.  I use 1 number because I want to eliminate as many possibilities for me to loose the bet.  by adding 2 numbers yes you only loose half but you are going to open up 3 more chances to loose half and not gain anymore chances to win i.e. 7’s.  Once this is played out on a real table you will be able to see my point better.  As a lay bettor a long roll will kill you.  a long roll with 2 open numbers will send you home early.

Also depending on the strat one uses a lay bettor usually has to get beat twice by the same shooter to get hurt.  Now the average shooter rolls 5-6 times before he or she 7’s out.  Now you are betting that out of those 5-6 rolls the 7 will appear before the 4.  Now if the 4 comes out most lay bettors double down to cover and usually insure this bet with a hard 4 so the only way you can get beat is the 3-1 and 1-3.

Also there are 2 huge advantages that a lay bet have over other bets on the table.  First is the lay bet is working on the come out so any 7 wins and only the single number looses for you.  Second is you can pick up a lay bet anytime.  So you can set guidelines for your lay on how many rolls you are going to allow a shooter to throw before placing the lay or how many you are going to let him throw before picking up the lay and this is where the most money can be made.  when I am betting against degenerates at the table I like to lay them on the come out and then pick up the bet and let them throw the dice 3-4 times before putting up my lay bet back down.  This is a way I like to get up on house money and make the shooter beat me twice from rolls #4-8.  This process can keep you at the table for 5hr sessions easy just picking your spots and getting your money in good.  And I always throw my lay down when the dice fly off the table and they give the shooter 2 new die.  It’s the “kiss of death”. 

But one thing you can guarantee is the will be no shortage of suckers stepping up to the table and firing the dice up against the backwall and you sitting there knowing you now have the same odds to win as the house except you don’t have to pay out all the bets won on the front side of the 7.  hahaha

$nakeEye$ - 09 December 2011 01:32 PM

Greatest 7 Shooter in the World - 09 December 2011 06:11 AM

I will always stand by my statement of Lay 4 or Lay 10 is the best bet in the casino.

I still can not see your reasoning behind going against one # or the other and not spliiting the bet between both the 4 and 10

IMHO you two are talking about different scenarios.  $snakEye$, you are advocating laying both no-4 and no-10 on an on-going basis.  As I showed on another thread, this strategy is expected to lose less per unit of playing time than laying only one of those numbers because it will complete fewer cycles and therefore pay less total vig.  Greatest 7, you are advocating laying only no-4, and only on comeout rolls (i.e. not continuously).  Consequently, you are concerned only with the probability of winning the bet, not with the expected value of the bet.  IOW, I think you’re both right!

Midnight I uses this on every come out and depending on the shooter I put them on a count and once they reach the count I hit them with the lay and if they continue to get lucky and continue to roll I pull it down.  In the end it’s like a pay range.  I get all the 7’s from say roll number 5 for a shooter to roll number 10.  So as with most odds of someone 7’ing out right around roll #5 (this includes his or her come out) I am odds on favorite to win this bet and have to get beat twice by 4’s in roll #5 thru #10.  If not its a push.

Now adding the 10 would only add to my losses and gain me nothing that is why anyone who does a 4/10 lay is a dog on odds.

Greatest 7 Shooter in the World - 09 December 2011 06:11 AM

Instead of 3 chances to loose now i have 6 chances to loose for the same payout.

Regarding laying both the 4 and 10 vs. only the 4 or 10, that’s somewhat true… you have six combinations where you lose something as opposed to three combinations where you lose everything.  You cannot lose both the 4 and 10 on the same throw, so you can’t really compare the two situations like that.

Greatest 7 Shooter in the World - 16 December 2011 03:13 AM

Now adding the 10 would only add to my losses and gain me nothing that is why anyone who does a 4/10 lay is a dog on odds.

Yes, but that’s true only if you’re concerned about tallying the number of throws you win and lose on - ignoring the dollar value of those wins and losses.

Greatest 7 Shooter in the World - 10 December 2011 03:29 AM

by adding 2 numbers yes you only loose half but you are going to open up 3 more chances to loose half and not gain anymore chances to win i.e. 7’s.

This should be acceptable.  Lose half as much, but open up twice as many combinations to do so.  There are no changes in your payout when you win via the 7, so why should you gain any more combinations to win?

I think what people are trying to tell you (and what you already may know) is that while halving your bet and spreading it to both the 4 AND 10 does not “gain” you anything on a seven-out, it also avoids the situation where the number you bet on (either the 4 OR 10) wipes out your total action.

Let’s talk about a specific choice you may have at a table with $410 in your hand… 
Choice A, you lay either the 4 OR 10 for $410. 
Choice B, you lay both the 4 AND 10 for $205 each, $410 total action.

Expected outcome = chances of winning (having avoided a thrown 4 or 10) * amount won + chances of losing * amount lost

Note:  The vig has already been paid, so is not used in these calculations.

If NEITHER the 4 nor 10 are thrown before the 7:
A:  100% * $200 + 0% * $0 = $200
B:  100% * ($100+$100) + 0% * $0 = $200

If BOTH the 4 AND 10 are thrown before a 7:
A:  0% * $0 + 100% * -$400 = -$400
B:  0% * $0 + 100% * (-$200+-$200) = -$400

These two examples are self-explanatory.  If neither the 4 or 10 are thrown, both types of players will win their total action.  And if both the 4 and 10 are thrown, both players will lose their total action.  Now if you assume that only the 4 OR 10 will be thrown:

If EITHER the 4 OR 10 are thrown before a 7:
A:  50% * $200 + 50% * -$400 = -$100 (There is a 50% chance that you decided to bet on the number that was thrown, but there is also a 50% chance that you decided to bet on the number that wasn’t thrown.
B:  100% * $100 + 100% * -$200 = -$100 (One of your bets has 100% chance of winning, while the other has a 100% chance of losing… we don’t know which is which until the dice are thrown, but it doesn’t matter.  If you assume only one of them will be thrown, your expected outcome is the same.)

My game is based on getting on house money and the easiest way to do that is not have additional combinations of numbers that will make you loose reguardless if you are loosing half or the entire bet.

As I stated in my post above I have the “mark” shooter on a count and he needs to beat me by throwing a 4 twice in rolls number 5-10 for me to loose.  Now I have the total odds advantage over the house at this point.  It makes no sense at all to split my bet and open up 3 more combos to loose. 

There is no odds advantage to laying 2 numbers for the same payout.  Only advantage seen by a amateur gambler is when he looses he is only loosing half.  Well scared money don’t make money and the game of craps is all about taking advantage of the odds at the point they are in your favor and pulling back when they are not. 

That’s the difference between a advantage player and a gambler.  And gamblers always loose.