My “local” (a 2.25-hour drive from home one way) casino, the only one I have been able to visit, and only once each this year and last, does not offer the Fire Bet, so I have not had this decision to make. Nevertheless, like Southern-Comfort I doubt I would make this bet since the house advantage on it, according the The Wizard of Odds, is 24.7%. (I should note, however, that his pay table is 10, 200, and 2000 to 1 for 4, 5, and all 6 points respectively. The house advantage will of course be less if these payouts are low, as other posters seem to indicate.) OTOH I have been specifically asked to comment.
idoc - 18 November 2011 03:00 PM
This is the way I see it… If the fire bet hits 5# that’s 250:1. I’ve only risked 1$ and getting 250$ Cha-Ching!!!
So would I be happy if it was just 200$? “Hell yea!”.
150$? “You bet-cha!”.
100$ “I’ll take it!”
If I could guarantee you 50$ (or at least 48$) for 1$ would you take it? That’s what I ask myself.
As kaysirtap demonstrated, hedging the fire bet with a lay bet against points after three have been made decreases the expected value of the bet, but expected value is not all that we are dealing with. First and foremost the situation under discussion, to lay or not to lay the fourth, fifth, and sixth points will arise only a little over 1% of the time, again according to The Wiz. Just off the top of my head I’d guess that’s once every four hours on average. Consequently, I might well be reluctant to reach such a rare plateau, establishing the fourth point, only to risk having nothing to show for it, which argues for the hedge. OTOH the payoff for four points, even if 40:1, is not all that great, which argues against hedging the fourth point since presumably I made the bet for its bonanza potential. Sitting at home at my computer I do not think I would make the lay bet; at the table I might think otherwise.
What about the fifth and sixth points? Well, I already have a winner (for four points) without the hedge, so I am going to get paid something even if those points miss. Depending on the difference between the five- and six-point payoffs I might think about hedging part of that, but I do not think the difference between the four- and five-point payoffs could be great enough to get me to hedge it.
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