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Advanced Pass Line strategy on the Come Out Roll!
Posted: 17 January 2012 04:33 PM   [ Ignore ]
kcadillac
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OK….......$27 Pass Line bet.  $3 three-way craps.  $12 six and eight.    All working ont the CO roll.  Examine this closely…...hmmm….not bad.

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Posted: 18 January 2012 06:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
DeMango
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I might put another buck on the Ace-Deuce.

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Posted: 19 January 2012 01:48 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
Greatest 7 Shooter in the World
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maybe if you had a private table to yourself you could capitalize but shooting once every half and hour would put your bankroll control to the test.  Most people cannot be at a craps table and resist betting on the other shooters and that is the best house edge as far as I am concerned.

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Posted: 20 January 2012 02:33 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
kcadillac
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This is just a way to increase your chanes of showing a profit on the come out roll…...........esp if you are a green chip player!  Always good to see alternative plays and offshoots for profit.

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Posted: 20 January 2012 04:41 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
$nakeEye$
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kcadillac - 17 January 2012 04:33 PM

OK….......$27 Pass Line bet.  $3 three-way craps.  $12 six and eight.    All working ont the CO roll.  Examine this closely…...hmmm….not bad.

What about a throw / hand such as :  4, 5, 12, 10, 9, 3, 9, 5, 7 .... hmmmm .... not so good !!!!!!!!!!!

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“Dictionary is the only place that success comes before work.  Hard work is the price we must pay for success.
  I think you can accomplish anything if you’re willing to pay the price.”    Vince Lombardi
           

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Posted: 21 January 2012 12:27 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
kcadillac
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Well….....like I said….....this is for the pass line player who is going to bet “right” anyway (placing more #‘s after the pt. is set)...and wants more chances at showing a profit on the come out roll.  Not for someone who is just looking for the 7 and 11 on the comeout roll.
With a regular passline bet…..u win with a 7 or 11…..8 ways can be made.  And u lose ur entire bet with a craps ......4 ways can be made.
    With the 3 way craps and 6/8 working,  u have more ways of winning on CO roll.    Heck,  u have 10 ways just with 6/8 working on the come out!  The three way craps is a good hedge,  showing a small profit on the 2 and 12 being rolled.  And losing $14 on the 11 (2 ways) .  The 7 is a wash…..winning $27 and losing $24 on 6/8 and $3 3-way craps. 
So,  the most u can lose is $14, (not $27 as with the regular PL bet), and only 2 ways at that!  12 ways to show a profit!  And any other number that shows…..u are down $3…....and just start your Right betting action. 
  A gentleman in Lake Tahoe, playing at Lakeside Casino,  showed me this last year.  He was a black and green chip better only,  and hated losing his entire bet on the come out roll.  Anyway,  good luck at the table…....and be strong!

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Posted: 23 January 2012 04:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
falcon
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kcadillac - 17 January 2012 04:33 PM

OK….......$27 Pass Line bet.  $3 three-way craps.  $12 six and eight.    All working ont the CO roll.  Examine this closely…...hmmm….not bad.

Possible outcomes of the above at Come Out:

6 & 8 net win = $11

2,3,or 12 net win = $0 (win $27 on the 3-way lose $27 on the PL)

11 net win = $24

7 net = 0

4,5,9, & 10 net loss of $3

Therefore there are twelve ways to win; fourteen ways to lose; and ten ways to accomplish nothing. 

My opinion, for what it is worth, not great especially since PL/point conversions occur only about 34% of the time.

falcon/tuttigym/DB+W

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Posted: 23 January 2012 05:02 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
DeMango
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Lose money on the 3 there Falcon, that’s why I suggested an extra buck on the ace deuce.

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Posted: 23 January 2012 08:59 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
kcadillac
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Where I am from…...the 2 and 12 pay 30-1 on the three way craps.  So,  u would lose the other $2 with the 3-way craps and lose $27 on the passline.  This shows a meager $1 profit,  but it is not a loss.  On the next roll of the Come Out,  you would have to put up the $2 again to complete the 3-way craps with you $27 passline bet. 
  Fewer ways to lose,  and losing less money also.  I just like this if I ever get to be a green and black chip better.  lol   Good way to open up your series on a shooter….....at least by me!  lol
the 7 and 11 are a wash….....and u start ur betting series.  So,  this gets u out with more ways to win,  and fewer ways to lose big on the CO. 
the 3 is where u lose the most…...losing $14 (the most u can lose!).......and it can be made only two ways.
good luck

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Posted: 24 January 2012 12:12 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
epenak
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falcon - 23 January 2012 04:50 PM

2,3,or 12 net win = $0 (win $27 on the 3-way lose $27 on the PL)

I think DeMango is trying to tell you that the payoff on the 3 is 15 to 1, not 30 to 1.

You win $15 on the 3 plus get your buck back, but lose the other $2 on the 2 and 12.

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Posted: 24 January 2012 10:52 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
falcon
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kcadillac - 23 January 2012 08:59 PM

Where I am from…...the 2 and 12 pay 30-1 on the three way craps.  So,  u would lose the other $2 with the 3-way craps and lose $27 on the passline.  This shows a meager $1 profit,  but it is not a loss.  On the next roll of the Come Out,  you would have to put up the $2 again to complete the 3-way craps with you $27 passline bet. 
  Fewer ways to lose,  and losing less money also.  I just like this if I ever get to be a green and black chip better.  lol   Good way to open up your series on a shooter….....at least by me!  lol
the 7 and 11 are a wash….....and u start ur betting series.  So,  this gets u out with more ways to win,  and fewer ways to lose big on the CO. 
the 3 is where u lose the most…...losing $14 (the most u can lose!).......and it can be made only two ways.
good luck

Okay, got it.  Sometimes my mind races ahead of my intellect, such as it is, at creates faulty math.

However, and there always seems to be a “however,” the real problem, for me, is the PL and the associated wager (FO) starting at $27.  Problem one as previously stated is the converting of points overall on average is at about 34% which creates real jeopardy for the $27, and problem two is that in order to take any real “advantage” of the PL bet, one must wager at least 5X the PL bet or a minimum of $125 for the FO portion of the equation.  I am not sure the average rank and file player could handle such an investment or would be willing to take such a gamble (pun intended) at a 34% possibility of winning the whole thing.

falcon/tuttigym/DB+W

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Posted: 27 January 2012 10:59 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
guido1
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falcon - 24 January 2012 10:52 AM

I am not sure the average rank and file player could handle such an investment or would be willing to take such a gamble (pun intended) at a 34% possibility of winning the whole thing.

falcon/tuttigym/DB+W

Your 34% is a bit low. The probabilities of winning the pass line bet while a point is established,
It is exactly 201/495 or 0.406060606 (~41%)
To be specific
4 & 10: 3/9
5 & 9: 4/10
6 & 8: 5/11

Enjoy!

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Posted: 28 January 2012 09:24 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
falcon
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guido1 - 27 January 2012 10:59 PM
falcon - 24 January 2012 10:52 AM

I am not sure the average rank and file player could handle such an investment or would be willing to take such a gamble (pun intended) at a 34% possibility of winning the whole thing.

falcon/tuttigym/DB+W

Your 34% is a bit low. The probabilities of winning the pass line bet while a point is established,
It is exactly 201/495 or 0.406060606 (~41%)
To be specific
4 & 10: 3/9
5 & 9: 4/10
6 & 8: 5/11

Enjoy!

guido1:  Those figures assume a perfectly even distribution of established points which never happens in a purely random game.  While the “perfect” math is always cited to produce the figures above, it has never been documented to have happen, and it all goes back to the “expected outcomes” in the “long term” which is never defined.

I play almost entirely in MS.  Virtually all the casinos have 20X odds tables with a few at 10X.  Extolling an almost 41% win ration on converted points would create a false winning premise that if one were to wager max odds, the player, winning at 41% of the time would become rich even if he lost 59% of the time with a dedicated stop/loss at 50% of his buy-in.

The only way PL/FO players win is on a “hot” table producing a couple of shooters converting multiple points and/or a long shooter that throws lots of numbers even w/o multiple point conversions.  It would be highly unlikely that there would be short term shooters converting multiple point so a PL/FO player could win often.

falcon/tuttigym/DB+W

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Posted: 28 January 2012 09:53 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
DeMango
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People only making 40% of all points set, pay the light bills, they do not win money. never mind become rich.

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Posted: 28 January 2012 10:32 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
basicstrategy777
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falcon says:.......... “guido1:  Those figures assume a perfectly even distribution of established points which never happens in a purely random game.  While the “perfect” math is always cited to produce the figures above, it has never been documented to have happen, and it all goes back to the “expected outcomes” in the “long term” which is never defined “

How can you say the above,  when a casino operation is based on the math cited in Guido’s post. Their profits occur because they base there payouts on what the probabilities say will occur in a random game.

Do you still contend that falcon is right and the casinos are wrong, when talking about probabilities/odds and random games ?


777

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Posted: 28 January 2012 10:36 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
falcon
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DeMango - 28 January 2012 09:53 AM

People only making 40% of all points set, pay the light bills, they do not win money. never mind become rich.

If one lives in FL or LV, those “light” bills can become pretty heavy duty. 

The unfortunate reality is that the vast majority do not come close to winning 40% of the time, and even the “great,” in his own mind, Scoblete, actually brags that with his “controlling” wins only 30% of the time.  For me, that is just unacceptable.

falcon/tuttigym/DB+W

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