I remember seeing a video on you tube a couple of years ago…......concerning “right” betting. 
    I dont remember the name of the host in the video.  But,  he stated if everyone that played craps, used this style of play….......the casinos would change the rules of the game!  Now,  that’s a bold statement.  But remember he said…....“everyone”. 
    This is the the play he stated.  By-pass the comeout roll and just place $44 inside, whatever the point is (one $5 unit on the 4, 5, 8, and 9.  Wait three rolls of the dice,  hoping to get a score on one of the place bets.  If you dont get a hit,  take down your bets and wait for the next shooter.  If you do, then take down the 5 and 9,  and reduce the 6 and 8 to $6 each.  So…..............after the initial score, you have $14 profit with $12 at risk on the table.  A 7 leaves you with $2 profit for that shooter,  and another hit on either the 6 or 8 gives you a $21 profit.  Then take down your bets and wait for the next shooter. 
    He did offer an offshoot of going to $22 inside and trying to get a third score.  That has you risking $1 to win $28 and fighting the powerful 7.  Or you can just take the $21 profit and await the next shooter.  There are many different ideas of how to play after the initial hit….....but this is a definite play that gets my attention.  Of course, incorporating a “win goal” and a “loss limit”  based on your bankroll is a must!

Good Luck and keep your discipline!

Sounds like John Patrick advice.

I know JP likes regressions to lock in a profit….......but I dont remember if it was his video.  A lot of smart guys use the regression playing craps.

kcadillac - 29 January 2012 08:01 PM

I remember seeing a video on you tube a couple of years ago…......concerning “right” betting. 
    I dont remember the name of the host in the video.  But,  he stated if everyone that played craps, used this style of play….......the casinos would change the rules of the game!  Now,  that’s a bold statement.  But remember he said…....“everyone”. 
    This is the the play he stated. 

By-pass the comeout roll and just place $44 inside, whatever the point is (one $5 unit on the 4, 5, 8, and 9.

Yeah. Anyone can say anything.
The truth is if everyone that played Craps played the pass with just single odds or the Don’t Pass with single lay odds, most casinos would not offer the game. It would not make enough $$$ to keep it in the pit.

kcadillac - 29 January 2012 08:01 PM

  Of course, incorporating a “win goal” and a “loss limit”  based on your bankroll is a must!

Good Luck and keep your discipline!

Win goal and loss limit really means nothing the longer you play Craps.
You are bucking 1.52% on the 6&8 place and 4% on the 5 and 9.
You are being “short changed” 20 cents every time you win a 6 or 8 place bet, but that “short change” really goes up on the 5&9 to 50cents on each win.

And if you think that is OK… the casino loves players like you and me.

That is too high for the “smart craps players” to play all the time
Good Luck!

Wow…......Holy Moly

Thanks Guido;
      You can have all the discipline, money management, little 4, and big 3. In the end it is total bet times house edge. Luck : gotta have it. Or learn to throw the dice.

DeMango - 30 January 2012 08:37 AM

Thanks Guido;
      You can have all the discipline, money management, little 4, and big 3. In the end it is total bet times house edge. Luck : gotta have it. Or learn to throw the dice.

Again, action * house edge is a theoretical formula.

Alan, in some of his excellent posts, points out that in reality it is ev/sd
and I agree 100%

Example.
$5 pass line bets no odds (keep it simple)
5,000 trials (we can agree it would take more than a few hours to see 5,000 pass line bets resolved)
ev:-$353.5354
sd:$353.5180
ev/sd = -1
0.158655254
1,586,552.54 out of 10 million players break even or show a profit.
This is z-score which is an approximation to the binomial distribution.

exact numbers
0.1620894 break even or show a profit
0.1552458 show a profit
These are not small numbers

Not everyone will always lose $353.53 (actually impossible) in 5,000 trials
The distribution is a normal one so we have a range of possible outcomes.

Now, at 44,996 pass line trials
ev:-$3,181.5354
sd:$1,060.5070
ev/sd = -3

Now about 13,499 out of 10 million players can expect to be even or ahead.
This means the longer one makes the same bet the less likely they are to end in with a profit, unless they can increase their winning percentages, by any method they choose. Not an easy thing to do.

Now the “short change” that ~2.8 cents per $1 bet on the pass line requires many more wins to overcome the losses of being in the “red”.

Enjoy!

guido…....why do you bet inside numbers ( 5,6,8,9 ) ?

I believe even #‘s ( 4,6,8,10 ) are better than inside…..because you will win more and lose less money with the 4/10 than the 5/9.  Buying the 4/10 should enhance this contention.

Does your math machine bear this out or am I full of balony again.

777

Well,  you guys keep touting “expectations” and “trial runs” via computers!  Then when u are too scared to roll dem bones…..go play dominos.
  I will just keep trying to catch a small trend, incorporate the regression to lock in a profit,  and keep counting my chips. 
to each his own
Good Luck

basicstrategy777 - 30 January 2012 01:52 PM

guido…....why do you bet inside numbers ( 5,6,8,9 ) ?

I believe even #‘s ( 4,6,8,10 ) are better than inside…..because you will win more and lose less money with the 4/10 than the 5/9.  Buying the 4/10 should enhance this contention.

Does your math machine bear this out or am I full of balony again.

777

Not me betting inside numbers.
I either just bet for one place bet at a time or all 6 as part of a complete set progression.

You are right that buying the 4 & 10 is way better than the 5 and 9… on paper and for long term play.

On the table, as the OP has mentioned, short term distributions dominate the action so I can not help but to bet for distributions.

I also keep track of how many times I bet on each bet so I know how my wins and losses are doing. I actually do it to track how many streaks of certain lengths I have played through, both win and lose streaks since all wins and losses are part of some streak length. either just 1 in length or 2 or more.

kcadillac - 30 January 2012 04:25 PM

Well,  you guys keep touting “expectations” and “trial runs” via computers!  Then when u are too scared to roll dem bones…..go play dominos.
  I will just keep trying to catch a small trend, incorporate the regression to lock in a profit,  and keep counting my chips. 
to each his own
Good Luck

Math guys NEVER fear rolling the dice.
DIs fear math guys.

Cuz, the math tells us what we can expect in a series of wagers.
By making slight adjustments to a style of play we can increase session wins. That is really all a Craps player wants to know.
A possible range of outcomes.

reading your posts, you seem to need more air in your tires

OK cadiliac.
see, I did not call you a flea…

kcadillac - 29 January 2012 08:01 PM

I remember seeing a video on you tube a couple of years ago…......concerning “right” betting. 
    I dont remember the name of the host in the video.  But,  he stated if everyone that played craps, used this style of play….......the casinos would change the rules of the game!  Now,  that’s a bold statement.  But remember he said…....“everyone”. 
    This is the the play he stated.  By-pass the comeout roll and just place $44 inside, whatever the point is (one $5 unit on the 4, 5, 8, and 9.  Wait three rolls of the dice,  hoping to get a score on one of the place bets.  If you dont get a hit,  take down your bets and wait for the next shooter.  If you do, then take down the 5 and 9,  and reduce the 6 and 8 to $6 each.  So…..............after the initial score, you have $14 profit with $12 at risk on the table.  A 7 leaves you with $2 profit for that shooter,  and another hit on either the 6 or 8 gives you a $21 profit.  Then take down your bets and wait for the next shooter. 
    He did offer an offshoot of going to $22 inside and trying to get a third score.  That has you risking $1 to win $28 and fighting the powerful 7.  Or you can just take the $21 profit and await the next shooter.  There are many different ideas of how to play after the initial hit….....but this is a definite play that gets my attention.  Of course, incorporating a “win goal” and a “loss limit”  based on your bankroll is a must!

Good Luck and keep your discipline!

I am confused…..if the shooter goes on a 100 roll run, are you sitting there sucking on your thumb for a half an hour?

I guess your “disciplined” approach is great if your objective is to lean against a table and watch other people play craps.  But what would you suggest for people that actually go to a casino to play the game?

Man,  if u can predict a hot roll….....give me those lottery numbers!  lol.  just kidding
    Like I said,  there are many ways to continue with the shooter.  Aftet the second hit, and u are up $21,  go to $22 inside.  Then you have $21 in your rack with $22 at risk.  So,  u are risking $1 to make $28.  After that third hit, leave ‘em up, start pressing,  regress back down to 6 and 8…....whatever u want to do.  Just lock in a profit!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    This is for those disciplined players who want to show a profit per shooter.  And let me say,  that I have leaned on many a crap table, encorporating discipline, regression and patience…...............and wacthing my chip stack grow. 
    If that shooter throws 10 numbers, sevens out and u don’t have a profit…....u need to change ur style of play.  Hell, if he throws three numbers,  he is doing very well.  I cant tell when the 7 will show…....I just want a profit when it does.
good luck and keep ur discipline

I am still confused…you said:

” Like I said,  there are many ways to continue with the shooter…” if you said anything like this, I missed it.

What you did say was

“...another hit on either the 6 or 8 gives you a $21 profit.  Then take down your bets and wait for the next shooter. ”

If that is what you do, you will not make more than your lusty $21 profit per shooter.

It is not a matter of “predict a hot roll”....this can never be done. What I am saying this:  make sure you are in the game when a hot roll happens.  sitting on the sidelines smiling at $21 in chips in your rack is not my idea of a good time.

I hear ya man.

Just my two cents worth…....
I also play the inside numbers and take them down after 2 or 3 hits or after 3 rolls of no hits. I will go back on a number if it repeats twice not missing out on a decent roll.