I am always interested in a safe system to play a sit down game in between craps battles or when the riff raff gather. It has become the stuff of legend this Star System but how safe is it really? What I am looking for is the failure rate of one level (there are three) It is not an easy system to learn/play, so I’m wondering how to work it all out. The pre progression bets are 1-1-1-2. Any loss next bet. Any win parlay and if it wins you win the “set” and start again. If you lose these four then you go into the regular progression which is a Fibbo: 5-10-15-25-40 Any loss next bet. Any win, take your winnings then same bet. Lose the next bet, it’s a wash, same bet. Win two and you win the “set” Your goal can be a time limit or your buy in, but no more (ha ha) Anyway the full blown system would require a buy in of $4500 which includes all three levels: $500, $1000, $3,000 That is the result of treating each unit at $5, the lowest bac game I can find.

So can anyone figure out the failure rate for this series of upto 9 bets(one level)? And of course the failure rate is different for bac banker, bac player, flat bet craps. BJ is a whole another ball game. The field would be an interesting way to go with this. Obviously any 2 or 12 rolled would win that set.

DeMango,

I found it on-line-> http://www.roulettesystemreviews.com/freesystems/StarSystem.pdf . I began reading it, but started making my eyes all squirrelly. I tried to print part of it out, but ran out of ink.

I believe this to be a stop-gap progression w/ a min bet to max payout for any type of wager.  For one to have a success, it would require a good memory or a cheat sheet to not screw up bet progression. And a casino kinda frowns on a cheat sheet. But the shorter the progression payout, the less one would have to remember.

good reading all together.

DeMango - 22 February 2012 01:14 PM

I am always interested in a safe system to play a sit down game in between craps battles or when the riff raff gather. It has become the stuff of legend this Star System but how safe is it really? What I am looking for is the failure rate of one level (there are three) It is not an easy system to learn/play, so I’m wondering how to work it all out. The pre progression bets are 1-1-1-2. Any loss next bet. Any win parlay and if it wins you win the “set” and start again. If you lose these four then you go into the regular progression which is a Fibbo: 5-10-15-25-40 Any loss next bet. Any win, take your winnings then same bet. Lose the next bet, it’s a wash, same bet. Win two and you win the “set” Your goal can be a time limit or your buy in, but no more (ha ha) Anyway the full blown system would require a buy in of $4500 which includes all three levels: $500, $1000, $3,000 That is the result of treating each unit at $5, the lowest bac game I can find.

So can anyone figure out the failure rate for this series of upto 9 bets(one level)? And of course the failure rate is different for bac banker, bac player, flat bet craps. BJ is a whole another ball game. The field would be an interesting way to go with this. Obviously any 2 or 12 rolled would win that set.

Just got back from a trip to Biloxi (sorry, was a quick trip to pass something to my brother).  I tried it a few times and had it work with both craps random rollers (field bets) and with blackjack.
Do NOT use it on field bets with a good DI who is setting for 6-8’s. 
Its not perfect, but its a nice little way to hold you over while the table thaws out.  I also recommend not trying to remember which bet you are on in the series.  Lay them out seperately on the chip rail and just place whats next.  Replace as you win back.

Dustedone: Thanks for posting the system. Several weeks ago I went and printed it out and took a week or so to digest it. I think I know how to play it for real, but I want to find the failure rate of one level. It is a serious chunk of change simply played at a $5 game.

Southern Comfort; I’m glad you have had good results so far. It does sound like a good idea to play the field while using a P6, X6 or S6 set.

DeMango,

As stated in the text, it was formulated for dog racing. And configuring into a dog/horse odds one could manage the progression quite differentlly.  The diverse off-set of odds comparitively to a wager with set odds makes the stop/gap system more attractive.  One thing though, you have a parameter of the number of races to work with in a day.  Also, the working with a smaller bankroll.

i got more, gonna go

...my ride had shown up last night to go out and had to cut it short. I did hit the tables last night for about two hours and made some cash for the evenings outing. Back to the Star System.

It appear that the stop/gap matrix of cancelling off-setting wins and losses would keep one chomping at the bit. If one was consistent tracking with off-setting incomplete matrices and trying to follow a consistent wager progressive, it seems it would be tougher to maybe be disciplined to stick to the progression if the table was hot. And hot, I mean the tables rolling but your not cashing in on your bets, but others around you are making money. And it easy if the table cold, you walk away.

It is hard to look at what one may be trying to accomplish when using this system. As the system can be put to numerous decisions. I would say that the field would be the fastest ways to test it. A decision on every roll is formulated into the matrix vs a PL/DP line wager. I mean everyone looks at making $$$$$; and some think getting free drinks, logging longer time at the tables, and still coming away w/ $ is a profitable night for them.

And as most progressive systems out there, it does require a substantially large bank roll. It really seem like you would be chasing your tail at even money bets. I think sport book gamblers that like the math and have produced winning strategies with this system, moved to table games and found some luck. If it so sure fired, one wouldn t need to write a booklet to make money.

Even w/ wager that pay one odds, like hopping bets might work better than and even money bet like the field.  Even a prop bet on the SEVEN seem like a good place to look into.  But a $3 three-way hopping SEVEN pays off better that $3 BIG RED aty 4 to 1 odds. 

Does any one know if wincraps takes hopping wagers?  I may have asked this before.

I have in the past tried to work up a progression on the SEVEN w/ a three person team on a table w/ $50 MAX and double the odds.  The data was lost when my computer crashed.  The stake was high and had chances for faliure; as does most systems.  And for a three person team to enter a casino and buy in large and work a systems that profits. HA! You would be out of there quicker than rabbits breeding.

dustedone - 25 February 2012 04:21 PM

Does any one know if wincraps takes hopping wagers?  I may have asked this before.

Yes, all of them. And one can change the payoffs also.
You can even create a custom bet if you so desire.

DeMango - 22 February 2012 01:14 PM

What I am looking for is the failure rate of one level (there are three)
Your goal can be a time limit or your buy in, but no more (ha ha)

So can anyone figure out the failure rate for this series of upto 9 bets(one level)? And of course the failure rate is different for bac banker, bac player, flat bet craps. BJ is a whole another ball game.

For me, this would be easy to program into WinCraps. I thought it already was in an auto-bet file but it was a different method.
This can also be done with math, but most would not believe the results.
The power of simulations.
some even do not believe in sim results.

DeMango, during March madness at the latest I can code this and run some sims for Craps. This will verify my math calculations.
What kind of time limit are you looking for as a goal?
That would give you what you are looking for.

But since I already know what the results will be, close, what is in it for me?
I know you are not a flea, stiff or a troll.
Make it good!

Gentlemen;
    As per my original post, I’m looking for a fairly safe progression to use at another game. Sitting my weary bones down after time at the craps table, or after it fills up with the feeders of chicken. But this progression is not simple , so I look for a failure rate of one level. Having three levels, then it is a simple math exercise of multiplication to find the failure rate of the entire system. There seems to be a way to use this at craps, the field bet, or pass or don’t pass with no odds. But every usage has a different failure rate because every bet has a different expected value. So there we are.
    7Craps: I don’t know what, of any value, I can pass your way except a whole bunch more of these progressions on file!

DeMango,
I was playing around with my Markov Chain solution and simulation code and just came across this over at the WoV.
How do you find the Probability of something like this?

Member “weaselman”-he knows his math- shows the formula and sim code for something like the star system that wins with any 2 in a row.
(added: I think the formula will work for the fibo progression but not the first 4 steps perfectly. That can also be adjusted but it looks to be close. I do not like pressing the first win in the 9 steps. It makes the ev 3.5 instead of 1.41. I say to lock up the win at step one. I bet “weaselman” could make a formula for this very easily like he did in the thread.)
(from my Excel)
= (F10/(1-F10*(F9)))^F8
F10= prob of losing
F9= prob of winning
F8= losing sequence length

(The formula should work for even money payoffs. Bac Banker will need an adjustment.)

0.02949883 would be the probability of losing the 9 steps with craps pass line or 1 in 33.89964959
So, raise that by 3 and you gots your answer.
All that should be left is to run WinCraps and verify the formula. I’m sure it is correct. Plus WC can give the range of winnings B4 a 1,2 or 3 progression losses. This is important to see what percentage of stakes still show a profit after a 3 progression bust.

See if you agree on these:
0.040931607 would be for even money Roulette at 18/38 win prob to lose one progression
0.029371548 would be for Bac Player at 0.4931752 win prob to lose one progression

The Field bet at Craps would need a Markov Chain or simulation since it could win a set with 2 in a row or a 2 or 12. That will be fun to see the results.16/36 makes for long wait times for a run of length 2 but the 2 and 12 can create set wins very quickly.

Enjoy!

Guido;
    Thanks for the formula. That answers the odds of losing 9 in a row on any probability. And if I follow you right, the double win requirement of the Fibbo, does not change the odds. And the early parlay does but not to a great extent. For the pass line 1 in 33 to the third power is quite a safe bet. But I guess in the long run a sim will have to be written, coded and played out a few 100 million times or so. Am I correct?

DeMango - 07 March 2012 06:51 AM

Am I correct?

Correct.
Lots can be learned from sim data.
First: March Madness and UK (University of Kentucky folks)

I have played both styles manually in WC and have already lost 2 progressions in over 1k rolls from the Zumma rolls.
It was also predictable.
The pass line in both cases was winning at a 60% clip. We both know that can not be sustained the longer one plays, and it all came crashing down with just many single wins and long losing streaks.

No reason why one can not get the 2 in a row from a pass and a don’t instead of just a pass and a pass.

Dustedone: Thanks for posting the system. Several weeks ago I went and printed it out and took a week or so to digest it. I think I know how to play it for real, but I want to find the failure rate of one level. It is a serious chunk of change simply played at a $5 game.

Southern Comfort; I’m glad you have had good results so far. It does sound like a good idea to play the field while using a P6, X6 or S6 set.

Am new, hello all.
What is the P6, X6, or S6 set?
Are there preferred sets against biased dice?
Thanks, Jester

I printed out the Star system and read it completely.

For craps he recommends Dont Pass only.

Before your first “Base Bet” on the Progression Ladder he has you do some Pre Progression Ladder bets ( ideally 5). The Base bet is the sum of your Pre Progression Bets.

Using a Pre Prgression series of bets of $3,3,3,3, 6   .....your Base Bet would be $18. He suggests a bankroll of 200 times your Base Bet so you would need a BR of $3,600.

Your Progression Ladder would look like:

$18
  36
  54
  90
  144

STOP

You would be down $360 if you lost 10 consectutive Don’t Pass bets ( $18 x 20)

Then you would start your First Revocery Seesion

Then your new Base Bet would be $32 with the Pre Progression looking like $5,5,8,8,10 and the Progression Ladder would be

$36
  72
  108
  180
  288

STOP

If you lost every bet in the 1st Recovery Session you would be down $360 from the fisrt session and $720 in RS 1 for a total loss of $1080 had you lost 20 consecutive Dont Pass bets

Recovery Session 2 would increase the Base Bet to $108

etc….....

Tried it a little on Wincraps…......it’s a grinder system

Anyone elses thoughts?