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Anyone tried dark side betting?
Posted: 24 February 2009 03:50 AM   [ Ignore ]
acer
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In land-based casinos, the vast majority of gamblers who play Craps bet that the dice will pass. In other words, most players bet that the shooter will make his or her Point Number before rolling a Seven.

However, there is a whole other dimension to the game of Craps known as betting the Don’t. A lot of people refer to this as “betting the dark side”.

I found the above piece in a book but there is no detailed info on dark side betting there in. Can someone please elaborate?

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Posted: 28 February 2009 02:21 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
oChRoNiCo
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i love betting the dont pass but here is why i win just about every session i play you must take the good with the bad there are going to be hot streaks and cold streaks and as long as you have the proper bankroll and money management oh also through in a large dose of patience you will come out ahead. I personally prefer using the D’Alembert or Alembert system, AKA Cancellation method this is how it works you start with a flat bet on the Pass or Don’t pass for our purposes the don’t pass and everytime you win a bet you decrease your next bet by 1 unit everytime you lose a bet you increase it by 1 unit here is exactly how i play this will be a good example. First let me say i have a starting bankroll of $20,000 and i have this broken down into 10 Sessions of $2,000 each now my goal for each session is to win or $200 now that doesn’t mean after i win $200 i quit that means i would start a new sessions with $2000 and start over ok with all of that good stuff out of the way here is how i play it my original wager is a $30 flat bet on the dont pass no odds i never take odds on the dont pass and that is also a part of this system you never take odds. My goal here is to get to $23 bet that is 7 wins and would = a profit of $212. ($30,$29,$28,$27,$26,$25,$24,$23) hopefully this answers your question if not im more than happy to help

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Posted: 24 March 2009 11:16 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
GuyNotes
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I agree.  The dark side has it’s advantages and on a cold table can allow you to win while others lose their shirts.  The only caveat is that you have to be able to see the hot roller and switch betting quickly.

Many people don’t like the dark side betting and I have been verbally abused before in a casino for doing so by the roller.  This guy felt, like many, that I would jinx him from making the roll and sevening out.  Oh well, when he did he swore at me and stormed off to another table..Just be careful as some of these oldtimers will really take a strip out of you for betting this way.

I personally have stopped betting the PASS/Don’t Pass lately and just stick to the Don’t Come/Come betts and it is more profitable.

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Posted: 01 July 2009 07:35 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
lucky4688
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My opinion is that betting the don’t is nonsense.  Why hedge more money to win less.  Laying more money to win less can damage a bank roll faster than you could ever imagine.  Obviously when the table is cold, the dont betting is benefitial.  But their is no mathematical equation to when the table is gonna get hot again.  I believe once you study the game and develop a strategy then you should stick to it.  Dont betting is not the consistant strategy you want to stay with.  I agree with not betting the pass or dont pass though.  However come bets and dont come bets are not the most profitable bets on the table.  Their is more money to be made on place bets and the math proves it.  If i were you i would bypass the come out rolls and wait until a point is established.  Once a point is established, i would make an inside bet.  Whether it be 6 and 8 or 5689.  It doesnt matter.  Your bankroll is going to determine what you can make.  I would take the first two or three hits and after that press each bet approximately 50%.  If you are the shooter, i would make the minimum pass line wager and then take odds, no matter what the point is.  You are better off at a table with 100X odds.  Plus you should hedge your pass line wager with an any craps bet.  That is one of the only hedges that i agree with making.  I guess i would consider this basic strategy i gave you moderately aggressive.  Its just my opinion and their are gonna be people that dont agree.  Study, read, and become a true student of the game.  But also, remember common sense is your best friend.  good luck

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Posted: 20 July 2009 03:27 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
filthysanches
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Dark side betting is a funny thing really. I’m a firm believer in ‘dice control’ I’ve seen it work i’ve had it work, and for non-believers suspend belief for this post. Allot of controlled shooters use this strategy against ‘random rollers’ as they, we, believe that as a person who hurls the dice down the table only has on average 6 rolls before sevening out. With this in mind you can extrapolate that a random roller will most likely seven out before they make their point. Putting this in the forefront of conscious thought it doesn’t make sense to bet with the player. But I don’t suscribe to this bettign strategy only because, as stated before, people get pissed off quick. This ruins the atmosphere and created tension between shooters, and in one case physical threats. There are all kinds of strategies that use the dont pass dont come, but the pay is weak unless done consistantly but in that case might as well just bet the field. I myself stick to the 5-count rule makes more sense.

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Posted: 26 November 2009 09:56 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
guy louis
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In response to “My opinion is that betting the don’t is nonsense.  Why hedge more money to win less.”  here is why

I would rather bet more to win less, if it involves greater odds of winning, simple is that, and that is why the dark side is best.

Sure if you are looking to have a good time, with the chance to win big fast, then being a pass line better in the sun is for you. really it’s just like the lottery, you can win big fast, but it’s unlikely. Only with the lottery we accept the pre mentioned fact with no regrets, I mean nobody is really surprised when they don’t win the lottery. Yet there are no shortage of people who seem distressed and surprised, almost cheated when they crap out, “Seven-out”  with five working place bets, a pass line bet and double odds plus all the hard ways and a high-low riding.  Why is this?

Truth is betting pass or don’t pass are very similar in odds, each around 1 to 1.5 percent house edge, however it is in the common betting activity or exposure taken that makes the dark side successful and pass line bets dangerous.  Here is why.

The real risk of dark side betting (other then not being properly bank rolled or overly risky ) is two inherent in the pay-out structure, where more pays less, inverse to right way betting where less pays more.  This means it is not enough to break even because if you win every other hand, you will lose money.  HOWEVER, we already know that a seven is more likely to come before any other number, therefore over the long run you will win more than you lose. This is the very reason to take odds on the dark side. While it is also frustrating when the come out 7 or 11 shows up, odds are never subjected to this loss.  Sure with a 4 or 10 when you bet 20 dollars of odds you only win 10, but it is surely the best time to increase your bet.

The real risk of right way shooting is because of multiple bet exposure.  When a pass line better places bets on 4 5 6 8 9 & 10 He/She can either win one bet at a time, or lose many.  This is the key flaw. If you are a fairly conservative better and only play inside,  take the 6 and 8 for 12 each and the 5 for 10 , and the point happens to be a 9, where you have 10 on the line and another 10 behind, you then have 54 dollars at risk, “or as the house would say 54 working”.  yet one can only win 14 at a time on the 5,  6 and 8, and 25 total on the pass. If the shooter would make a, 6, then an 8, then pass the 9, as a pass line bettor you would earn 53 dollars. If he would then set 5 as a point, and then crap out, you would have just lost 54 dollars. overall you lost a buck, If the shooter would have made one more number, say the 5, then you make an extra 14 bucks for a total of 67. If the shooter then as described set the point as a 5 after passing the 9 and then craps out, your total loss is not a loss, its a win of 13. I use this example to show that if you bet the inside, you will have to throw each of 5,6,8 and 9 before the Seven to profit, everything else is a loss. and while this can happen, it is the minority. This is fundamentally caused by over exposure.

If you bet the dark side, and you also use the DC, don’t come just as the come bet is used to increase exposure to come out rolls, you can obtain inverse positive exposure. When you place a don’t pass bet for 10, then you place 15 in odds (to win 10)  and then take a 10 dollar d/c bet, which just as in the example above, comes to the 6, you take 12 odds on your 10, place another d/c bet which rolls an 8, take another 12 odds, then place one more 10 buck d/c bet which rolls a 5, take 15 odds, then you have 94 dollar working. However they can only be lost one at a time, yet they can win all at once on a Seven.  So lets work the same example as above. So the 9 comes and you lose your don’t pass, all 25 dollars. a new come out roll takes place where a 5 is thrown, there you lose your 5 d/c bet and all 25 there, your down 50. but then the shooter craps out. you win your 6 and 8 d/c bets, where you risked 44 to win 40, and you win your new don’t pass bet and odds, which was 25 to win 20, for a total gross of 60 minus 50 lost, and you are up 10. 


Also keep in mind that when you have one or more d/c bets active, when the shooter makes a point and you lose your don’t pass bet, it is disappointing, however on the come out for a new point, when a seven is thrown, you will then win all your d/c bets all at once. 

When playing I keep in mind a few rules.

1) I know that the dice know no odds, they simply fall in all directions, every now and then they are influenced but more often then not they just fall, and Seven comes more often, it is as simple as that. 

2) I never have more than one bet that can lose at any time and aim to get multiple bets working that can win at the same time, on a Seven.  Sure a hot shooter can make number after number and crush a d/c better now and then, but he/she still has to do it one at a time…

3) If a shooter makes two maybe three points in a row, I will take a break until he/she craps out.  The worst case scenario is he/she craps out right away and you have bet everything wrong but cut your losses. Best case is he/she makes 3-4 more points and you thank yourself for following rule #3 eventually he/she craps out, it’s guaranteed.

4) I always take odds, perhaps double odds on the 4 and 10, as this is a chance to wager money when the bet is in your favor,

5) I try to have a set goal for winnings in mind in advance, and when If I can hit it, I walk away, including walking away on a win. Often players get up fast, and don’t realize that it would be enough to quit, only it seems silly to leave while the table is “hot”. meanwhile when they get down they regret not leaving. It is a bit like missing your subway stop, it doesn’t matter where your stop is if you are asleep when you get there.

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Posted: 30 November 2009 12:09 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
lucky4688
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guy louis,

You made some very good points.  Their are definately benefits to betting right and betting the don’t.  I do like to have fun and i do like to win big fast.  We both know that betting the right way doesn’t promise you that, but neither does betting the don’t.  Their definately is multiple bet exposures when making place bets.  Just like you said though, i have to take my first three hits in order to break even.  If i bet 44 inside, i have to hit three inside numbers not in any particular order and then i would have 42 of my 44 dollars back.  At this point, any number afterwards is a profit.  So if i follow your scenarios, I believe a 9, 6, 8, 5, 9, and 5 were thrown before a seven.  So lets say i bypassed the come out, because i normally would, and bet 44 inside as soon as the nine was established.  The 6, 8, and 5 would put me at 42.  Then the 9 and 5, given i didn’t press, would actually put me up 26 dollars.  But realistically, once i get my initial investment back i would press every hit.  But even if i didn’t im up 26 dollars.  And i still have 44 dollars working.  Now, going to the don’t scenario….you ended up profiting ten dollars out of all those numbers.  Even if i had made a 10 dollar pass line wager with single odds.  You stated i would have profited 13 dollars.  So im still not sure what the benefits to betting the don’t really is.  The place bets made more money.  I’m obviously fighting the most common number on the dice, being the seven.  But with the place bets, it doesnt matter if my first three hits are 5’s.  I still make money.  But with your scenario, the numbers conveniently didn’t repeat, which allowed you to get 4 dont bets working.  Where as i can just place my four right away.  If you make a dont pass bet and the 9 is rolled.  And then repeated right away, you are out your 10 dollar flat and 15 dollars in odds.  And all you have working is a 10 dollar dont come bet on the 9.  Then you are right back to the come out roll which is a horrific 8 ways to lose and 3 ways to win. Also, look at it this way.  If i place the inside.  I have just given myself 18 different combinations on the dice that pay me and six that i lose on.  If you are lucky enough to beat the odds on the come out roll and lucky enough to get 4 dont bets working without repeating any numbers, then you have just given your self 18 combinations for you to lose money and 6 to win.  And once i get my initial investment back with my place bets, the sky is the limit because im playing with the houses money.  This is why i am not surprised, distressed, or feel cheated when that seven jumps up.  Because i know that i made money on that roll.  Any bet that is an even money bet is not worth making.  Unless you are betting a significant amount of money, place bets or buy bets will pay out more for your investment.  Why risk 10 dollars on a flat bet and 10 dollars in odds, when i can place the 10 for 20 dollars and make 36 instead of 30.  What makes this even worse is a 3x, 4x, 5x, odds table.  A 100x or even 500x odds table makes this better, but not many people wager that much money.  Flat bets are severely limiting and then add the fact that you have to invest more money to win less.  So is the dark side really the best?  For you maybe, but its just not my style of play…

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Posted: 01 December 2009 01:02 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
guy louis
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well the benefit is that as stated one can only lose one bet at at time with the don’t but can win all at once.  If a shooter starts to repeat, as you said 5, 5, 5, that will cost a dark sider better, but still only one at a time.  If you thought my scenario was unrealistic, that of 9 5 6 8 9 5 7out,  then I will suggest two other options.

Option 1, shooter establishes a 4 as the point, then throws a 9, then craps out, if you bet the dont and d/c you just made 40 dollars with two ten flat bets and odds of 20 in the 4 and 15 on the 9. This is best case scenario for dark siders right? but it’s more common than you’d wish as a right way shooter. 

Second scenario. Hot shooter, makes 5 points, first he comes out with a 7, dark side down 10, then shoots a 4, then 27 numbers between the next 4 with no Sevens including multiple 9’s.  Matching scenario 1, dark side loses both the 25 dollar 9 d/c and the 30 dollar 4, for a total of 65 loss.  and the sky’s the limit for the right way shooter. But as mentioned in my last post, i’ve just gotten burned two times, so I wait out the shooter.  my 40 earned versus 65 lost, im down 25, but it will only take me 2-3 bad shooters to get up again (my loses are controlled).

I guess option three is shooter one sets 6 as a point, then craps out. then shooter two sets point as 5, then craps out, then shooter 3 sets point at 9, and then craps out.  this is a 60 dollar gain for dark side, while the right way better with working in the sun bets just got clobbered. worse if he make bigger bets on the third shooter thinking it’s bound to turn or if shooter one thur three makes a handful of inside numbers causing a bettor to press bringing in only a dollar or two before it’s all gone.

When betting right way, I’ve noticed that when the table is just luke warm, not smokin hot or freezing, the only way to profit is to actually take bets down, say deciding in advance that if the 6 hits twice, i will take it down, after you need to turn a 12 dollar 6 into 26 or 40 a few times to offset a quick inside loss of 44 here and there. However if the strategy is to always press at least once on each number inside, well then this will only pay off when the hot hot shooter shows up, which is rare. Otherwise it results in canceling out reasonable wins. After all the odds of hitting a 6 before a 7 is a slight underdog to start, when this happens, most right way shooters haven’t won a thing yet, only a point is set.  The chance of this happening twice is even worse, yet when it does, this tends not to be enough for some who press, instead of making 14, they make only 2 and turn 12 bet into 24.  then when the 7 comes its a loss of 10, if one more comes first its 28 for a total of 30, but you still have 24 of your funds risked out there so really the win is only 6.  You can justify this as the “Houses money” but really it was yours, and you needed these winnings to offset the future loses that will surely come. So I write all this to display how right way shooters with a press system are betting not only on betts with pour odds, but are then refusing to take profit when it does pay for the even lesser common big shoot. 

When I play the dark side, there is always some guy that can be heard saying under his breath or to his friend, “look I guess it the only way to win is to play like that dark side guy over there” referring to my seemly large stack of red and some green chips assuming that Im up big. Truth is it’s just another exaggeration by the right way player bankrupted. Sure at this point Im holding 500 dollars aprox, and have done far better than this person, but I’ve started with atleast 3-400 for a proper bank roll, recognizing that i may fall down 50-100 dollars in action, but over the long hall I will earn about 1-200 dollars in the system within about a few hours. I’ve noticed that dark side shooters tend to have more of a bank roll, cashing in with 400, sometimes 1000 or more, while a right way shooter may drop 100 down, giving him less staying power. really he needs to win fast with 100 as this may last only two bad shoots, then he must rebuy or leave.

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Posted: 01 December 2009 08:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
lucky4688
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guy louis,


Its not that i thought the scenario was unrealistic, because i’ve seen it happen, i just think that it doesn’t happen as often as repeating numbers.  Especially the inside numbers.  Of course a dont pass player loves to see a 4 or ten on the come out.  But pass line players and dont pass line players have no control over what numbers their wager will be working for.  When im playing and risking my money, i prefer to choose which numbers i will be betting on.  So as far as the 5’s theory.  If a dont shooter makes a dont pass line wager of 10 with 15 odds and the point is a five.  Then a 5 is thrown.  Then 25 dollars is lost.  Lets say five is established agian as the point, and once again made.  Then a dont shooter is down 50 dollars.  With no working bets to make his money back.  If a right way shooter went 44 inside and that same thing happened, then that person would be down 16 dollars with 44 still working.  I agree that worst case scenario for someone who plays like myself is a point seven, or one number seven.  We have already discussed that i need three inside numbers to break even.  The only scenario that you have given me that benefits a dont player over a right way player is “option 1”.  As for scenario 2, if a shooter throws 27 numbers before a seven, i would have thousands of dollars in the rail, starting from 66 inside.  It is true, if three shooters go point seven in a row, a right way player definately took a hit.  We can “what if” all day long.  But i know how to press,  i know how to manage bankrolls, and when a roll starts heating up, i know how to take advantage of it.  It seems as if you think all right way shooters are dumb craps players and are the novices at the table.  But you know as well as i do that a table consists of 10 right way players and maybe, just maybe 2 dont players.  So maybe the dont players are the ones that like to be noticed and in the sun.  Or just maybe the dont players are the ones that dont understand how to press and take advantage of hot dice.  Making a 12 dollar 6 a 24 dollar six is stupid.  I would never full press.  i don’t believe in full pressing or parlaying.  Once i have my three hits, lets just say 42 of 44 inside, then i press each winning number.  Each number gets pressed approximately 50 percent.  I take my winnings.  Once those three inside numbers are hit, it doesnt matter whats on the board because i have been pressing with winnings and already took my initial investment back way earlier in the roll.  But lets asume i was on the dont pass or even if i layed the four and ten.  I would be standing at the table watching number after number.  Not collecting, not pressing of course, just hoping that i win my 40 dollars after laying the 4 and 10 for 82 dollars.  A right way player that knows what he’s doing will not buy in for a hundred.  I can’t imagine what kind of bets they will make with a bankroll of a hundred.  Those are the players that ask for a five dollar horn high yo, all the hardways for a nickel each, and an any seven.  Go bust in three shooters and walk away wondering why. 

  “When betting right way, I’ve noticed that when the table is just luke warm, not smokin hot or freezing, the only way to profit is to actually take bets down, say deciding in advance that if the 6 hits twice, i will take it down, after you need to turn a 12 dollar 6 into 26 or 40 a few times to offset a quick inside loss of 44 here and there.”


Taking numbers down is a tough debate.  I don’t, but i do agree that sometimes i will just take a same bet on a number even if i would normally press it.  And yes that is to recover losses from a couple bad shooters.  But i compare that to your idea of waiting out a shooter so that your losses are controlled.  A 26 dollar six and a 40 dollar six?  neither one are proper bets so im not sure what you were getting at.

“The chance of this happening twice is even worse, yet when it does, this tends not to be enough for some who press, instead of making 14, they make only 2 and turn 12 bet into 24.  then when the 7 comes its a loss of 10, if one more comes first its 28 for a total of 30, but you still have 24 of your funds risked out there so really the win is only 6.”

I didn’t fully follow how you got to 6 as a profit.  If you bet 44 inside their should be 44 risked on the board at all times, unless bets were removed, called off or regressed.  But what i think you are getting at as is that their are a lot of right betters who full press and parlay and never take a profit, then when a seven comes, they are wondering why other players profiting and they didn’t.  I agree 100 percent…that is stupid and thats exactly why the same bet is taken on my first three wins and a fifty percent press after that.  People who make place bets can have discipline and regulate losses.  Its all in the player, not which side of the dice they are on.

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Posted: 01 December 2009 09:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
guy louis
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my examples using press on the 6 were just that, only betting on the 6, not inside across, so the math is solely for betting and pressing the 6. so when you have a 12 dollar 6 and you win but then apply full press, you are taking 2 dollars and turning your 12 into 24. so if you lose that 24 you are down 10 bucks.  get it. When I refer to in the sun, it is just a term for the 4/5/6/ 8/9/ and 10 place bets, not meant to mean drawing attention to ones betting style or bank role. 

I am willing to agree that the best way to win is to know when it’s hot either way and jump in. However I don’t believe anyone can truly possess that as a skill, therefore I am more interested in strategies that can work in most or all cases, ones that may not be as fun but pay off steadily.  For me I admit the most fun is achieving a profit, not the journey, in fact the journey can be unpleasant.

So to reply, I agree that when you bet the line bets you don’t choose which numbers you are playing, opposite to place bets, however it should be noted that you can choose to not take action on any don’t pass bet, meaning if you don’t want to play the 6 and 8, you can pull down your bets on both dp and dc, you can’t do that for the pass line on 4’s and 10’s.  However it is foolish as the odds are in your favor once a point is set.  You can however also choose to increase or decrease odds taken, which is where I believe real money should be made, as we know there is no house edge here.  Finally you can hedge to reduce risk, meaning if the 5 is set, with a 10 don’t pass bet, you can then take the 5 place bet, if it seven out’s your even, if the 5 is made, your up 4 bucks. I’ve actually seen players play this way, but I don’t recommend it as you are missing out on your odds winnings in the long run.

I will admit however that I am at the table betting and waiting for the table to get real cold, that is where dark side money is made and is also my Que to leave if i’ve made my goal. This implies leaving up and on a win. In-fact every shooter ends on a don’t pass win. The I find that pass line betters don’t here there stop being called, because it means leaving in the middle of a shoot, and often with working contract bets in place (those which can not be taken down eg, pass line. ) 

I think casinos actually want a few dark side betters, one to hedge their bets a bit, but two to provide a scape goat, a visual presence for pass line shooters to associate negative feelings towards, taking those feelings away from them. Perhaps sociologically it’s gets people back in the doors sooner if they blame there bad beat on that guy in the corner and not the stick man. after all bettors are highly superstitious, often associating hitting someone’s table chips with the dice as the reason they craped out.

I don’t think pass line betters are stupid, however i do feel there is too much ritual and pressured to bet a certain way placed upon them. For example we all no not to scream out Seven during a shoot, but some people are hesitant to take bets down or call them off because that will induce a Seven. Other bettors when the hear another bettor take bets down, will do the same, as if they know something.  Finally I see pass line players not take odds on 4s and 10s, when they have many other working bets active, I understand the hesitant nature of taking 2-1 bets, however as discussed above odds are the best bets.  It is far less often that I see a don’t pass bettor refuse at least single odds on a 6 or 8. 

Truthfully the best way to bet on craps is to search out people who don’t take odds and ask to place your money there, you avoid the come out role and get true odds on all bets.  then the key is really just to find a hot or cold table.

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Posted: 06 December 2009 08:44 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
lucky4688
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guy louis,

i get it now, i was trying to do the math thinking you had the inside covered, not just the six.  I get what your saying and i agree. I never full press or parlay.  I believe in taking decent profits from each win.  Thats why i press approx.  50% with each win and take the rest. 

I never heard of place bets being referred to as “in the sun” bets.  I just thought you meant the shooter wanted to draw attention to themselves and be in the spotlight at the table for his strategy and amount he is betting. 

You make a good point about dont bets being able to be removed at any time.  But like you said, why would you do that if you were lucky enough to survive the come out.  the bets are hugely in your favor at that point.

The concept of hedging dont bets with place bets is interesting.  it seems as if it would be a slow grind.  Let me think this out….  So you make a 10 dollar dp bet.  The point is a 5 or 9.  You lay 15 in odds and then make a 20 dollar place bet for the point.  If a seven is thrown you break even, if the point is thrown, then you make three dollars.  I like the idea, but hears what im wonderin.  Do you also make a dc bet as well.  So as soon as the point is established, do you lay 15 in odds, place the point for 20, and make a ten dollar dc bet.  Or do you just ride out one number on that entire shooter.  It would be nice to get a couple more bets working.  The only thing i dont like is this.  Lets say right after the point is established, you make a dc bet.  then a seven shows and you dont break even, instead you lose ten dollars.  The dc bet gives you either,  lose ten dollars or win three dollars instead of win 3 dollars and break even.  If your idea does include making that dc bet as well, do you hedge it?  If so maybe you hop sevens with a yo.  So a ten dollar dc bet, with a 3 dollar hoppin sevens and a dollar yo.  That would hedge the dc, but then you lose four dollars if you dont lose or win the dc bet and then the slow grind for three dollars is pointless.  I’m not shuttin down this theory, i actually have thought it out in the past, but im just trying to work out all the angles.  Ever since i learned to play, i have hated commiting any of my money to flat bets.  Even money “contract bet” as you call them are horrible.  i hate the commitment and their is much more advantageous bets to make.  Just my opinion.  So any bet that is tied to a flat bet turns me off and i usually refuse to play that way.  The come out is a risk, so sure you can hedge, but what do you do?  Also,  you have to hedge dc or you risk the 10 bucks all the time.  These are the same reasons i dont play the pass line or the come.  The only time you will see my money on a flat even money wager is if i press my place bets high enough, where it is benefitial to convert them to put bets.  My local casinos have 100x and 500x odds which allows me to take advantage of put bets.  Also, if im throwing the dice obviously.  I know you recommended against the hedge because of not being able to take advantage of true odds, but im still curious what the full details of that strategy are?

Yeah i dont know how i feel about the idea that the casinos want dont betters.  Its a sound theory.  I believe the house is superstitious as well.  But the house is the opposite of the player.  So if their is a right way better, then the house is the dont.  If their is a dont player at the table then the house is the right way.  I hate when people say that dark side betters are betting with the house.  The house is trying to take your money at all times, they arent in the market of helping you win EVER.  So if someones playing the dont, then to them the house is the right way.  But i see what your saying about the big picture. 

I agree with you 100%.  I always take true odds from someones pass line bet if i can.  Especially the 4 and 10.  i dont even look for someone who doesnt take odds, if they do i just ask them to add the money.  Most of the time they offset the chips so they can differentiate their odds vs mine and if it hits, pay me accordingly.  Also, its a good way to avoid the vig.  Thats why i always look for casinos that allow me to pay the vig when the bet is won instead of up front.

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Posted: 06 December 2009 10:35 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
guy louis
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when hedging, say with a 6 or 8 established, I would do it only if I have a feeling that luck is about to go pass line. Keep in mind i try not to have feelings, as i feel they compromise the integrity of the system, after all that’s where a system becomes a gamble. however when I win 4-5 don’t pass bets in a row, (it takes patience but it surely always happens in a day) part of me is feeling that this cant’ go on for ever. And instead of a full switch to the positive side, instead when a 6 is the point and i have a ten dollar don’t pass working, i will avoid odds, and place the 6 for 12, so ill either lose two dollars or gain two dollars, both peanuts, but im happy to have risked far less.  that is how i would hedge. It works better with 4, 5, 9 and 10 where you stand to either break even or make 4 or 8 bucks. But what you are surrendering is larger wins of 20 dollars, those which you will need to off set future loses of 22-30 dollars.  Again its a gamble,  and i suppose i could instead just take down the don’t pass bet and break even, but that doesn’t work when you are shooting.  (perhaps this is why most dark siders don’t shoot.)

perhaps a sharper way to hedge, is to take both pass and don’t pass bets to start, this all but kills the come out risk for the dark side.  Then one can bet odds the same, so he/she is just neutralizing the flat bet.  The way the house protects against this is barring the dark side 12, and not winning on it.  while this is real, it’s odds are only 1/36 anyhow.  when you consider 6 ways to throw a Seven,  the 11 and the 3 cancel each other out, 1 way to throw a 2, that means there is a 5 of 36/chance of losing on the don’t pass come out, you now reduce this to 1/36 with a bet on each line. This then allows you to focus your bets on odds.  However I’ve noticed that most people do this because they are not sure how they are going to bet until after the point is established. This is perhaps not a good idea. I see most people take pass odds on tht 6-8 and don’t pass odds on all others. I guess this is logical, however the odds are in the don’t pass for all points.  And while sure I recognize that true odds are supposed to even this out, I still believe that that does not justify taking bets that are not in your favor. 

After all betting 22 against a 6 to win 20 is not that much different than a even odds bet, and it’s the best time to lose because it’s the least amount wagered, compared to betting 25 dollars on a 5 and 30 in a 4. So even if a shooter makes a 6 then craps out on a 9 or 10, which is fairly common, then your only down 2 dollars.  when this happens, a dark side shooter is often compelled to increase odds now, perhaps taking 30 dollars of odds on the 10, so 40 to win 25, this would off set a loss of the 6 and actually make 3 bucks on the shoot.  Of-course a second loss buts the player deeper in the hole.  that is where proper bank rolling is needed.

Really a dark player is not there to make 3 dollars or lose 2 dollars on a shoot, this is just treading water. but you tread water to wait for the cold table where a string of shooters make no points and one can earn about 100 dollars over this course betting 10 dollar don’t pass with single odds. This happens every day I am sure of it.  The great shoot where a player passes 5 or more numbers absolutely happens, but not as often, and it still depends on making a bunch of inside numbers to really pay off for most people, for example people shy about taking 4/10 odds.

finally a d/c can be seen as a one time hedge or a longer term hedge.  Really the best time to have a d/c bet is with a shooter that rolls the average roll of 6 times then craps out. because if he establishes a 9, then craps out you will lose your d/c right away.  This would be a profit on the line and odds of 20 and a loss of 10, (the first hedge example) this happens, but it’s still a profit right.  secondly if the shooter instead of throwing a seven throws an 8, then you are on two numbers,  if he repeats either the 9 or 8, you’ve lost one full bet, of either 25 or 22 dollars, this is a shame, but again it’s a hedge. But this is the way to get a single Seven to pay both bets, while as stated above, you can only lose one at a time. Sure eventually a shooter will make both numbers and burn you, but not as often as he will crap out. And again you don’t have to take action on any d/c number if you don’t want to. I don’t recommend this.  Keep in mind it is a way of getting behind numbers without laying for much higher buy ins, if there was a lay bet for 10 bucks more people would do it but it’s too expensive.

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Posted: 12 December 2009 03:15 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
arrgy
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Hi all, new to the board, however have been a don’t better since I was 15 gambling in A.C. some 25 years ago. So my perspective on ODDS and other don’t issues:

First, there is no doubt that Don’t betting is a grind, a long tedious grind. However, a very profitable one.

Second, NEVER lay odds (for one exception) because even though you get the mathematical true odds, if your statistical variation is off by just one your toast. Example: According to math, a 7 will appear before the 4 (or 10) 2-1. So let’s assume that we make 3 bets at $10 with $10 odds. That is a total of $60 in action. If we follow math we will win twice and lose once. Win- 2X$10 (flat)=$20 +2X$5(odds)=$10 for a total of $30 profit. We lose once that is one flat bet of $10 and $10 odds for -$20=A total of $10 profit. However, if we lose just one more than we win (which happens a lot) then that’s one win for $15 profit and 2 losses for -$40= we just lost $25.

Same scenario…no odds… win twice for $20 and lose once so we have a $10 profit. If off by one loss…win once for $10 and lose twice -$20= we lost only $10.  Now we used very basic low amounts of bets, but the picture is clear. If we always take odds and just lose one more than we should. Then we lose a lot. I only take odds when I also make a DC bet IF my line bet is a harder point. Example: I have $10 on the don’t. Point is 6, I will just place $10 in the DC (and maybe a $1 on the hard 6) If the point is 4,5,9,10 then I will take double odds on the line, place $10 in the DC for that shooter. If the shooter rolls a number, I take down my odds bet.

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Posted: 12 December 2009 03:26 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
arrgy
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Hedging: I have played all sorts of Don’t hedge systems. First, the Do-Don’t on the line, it doesn’t work because on the one hand you are giving up the biggest edge for the pass line bettor (the come out) and on the don’t side you are doing the one thing that kills don’t betters….laying odds. To get around that come out roll I would do one of two things. Usually, I don’t bet the line, I only bet DC. I have noticed over the years a lot more come out 7’s vs. what I call point after 7’s. And they also tend to come in bunches of 3 or 4 or more which kills the don’t better. The don’t better wins a bet, then Bang two 7 come out’s wipes out his profit. So I bypass the line for the DC. The other thing I may do, is make a $41 lay bet on the 4 or 10 on the come out if my line bet is $20. IF you think about it, why don’t casinos allow people to make $10 lay bets to win $5? Because they would get killed. My father only bet lay bets and made a fortune.

Second hedge I don’t use is the place bet system. No matter WHAT the point is you have the edge especially the 6/8. Don’t give that up by doing some dumb place system, it doesn’t work.

What does work sometimes, which I will use, is place a hardway bet if my point is an even number. $100 No 4/10 I may throw $5,10,15 for a hard 4/10 it reduces one way of losing so now the odds are even more in your favor.

The last hedge I ALWAYS do out of superstition is if on the come out a 2,3 is rolled I will then bet 1/5 of that profit on the 11. So a $25 DC, 2 hits. Take the $25 and throw a $5 chip for the 11, its silly but I am superstitious that way.

When a don’t better dodges that come out roll to establish that point, take full advantage of that point. Don’t win less, that already eats into the casino profit.

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Posted: 12 December 2009 03:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
arrgy
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How I play: It took me 20 years of choppy play and eventually losing to get my method down. I have documented an 80% success rate and play in one of a few ways. The first thing I realized is you really do need a good bankroll to play, and not $1000 but at least $10,000 a session. One night I bought into a game for $100, and had 20 red chips in front of me. After 8 hours of grinding I ended up with 21 red chips, I don’t think I ever won or lost more than $50, it was that choppy. For the next 6 months I tracked how many times I ended up ahead at least one red chip, and it was staggering…85% of the time I had one extra red chip at some point. So I looked down at my chip rack and said why can’t I do this with black chips, and had a revelation. So now, I play with $10,000 and hope to win $500-$1000 at most per session. If I do that consistantly (which I do 80% of the time) I am happy….real happy. And it is so easy. The ways I play:

1. Again my father taught me this, and it stretches out your sessions but is super easy and never have I lost with it. You will do a martingale on three shooters. Start with a $25 DC or No line bet. If the shooter beats you (come out 7/11 or made point) come back with $50, beats you again, come back with a $100. Beats you again. STOP! Wait for the next shooter. Go 200/400/800. If he beats you three times, STOP. Wait another shooter. then go 800/1600/3200. You are betting that three different shooters will not beat you three times in a row. This works GREAT with DC since you avoid the come out 7s. If you win (even with a 2 or 3) You STOP and wait for the next shooter (NOT next point). I have used this for 7 years and never even got to a 3rd shooter. Its a slow grind at $25 a win but over an hour or two session you make a grand or two. And NO ODDS, and even no hedge.

2. Strict Don’t betting. Take $10,000 break it into two $5000 units in your rack. Flat Don’t bet on line. Shooter rolls a point, lay odds for one roll if 4,5,9,10 bet in DC. shooter rolls a number, down come odds, and you leave the two bets up there. Use hardway hedge if needed, no odds. Shooter makes the DC number, come back with double odds and double the DC bet. Or, if shooter makes point, leave DC number up, no line bet. Make another DC bet after point established. Continue going up one unit for shooter to knock down either the DC twice or your line twice. that’s it. You use one $5000 rack for the line and one for the DC and treat them independently.

3. Lay bets. I will do this if the table is really cold. Strict $41 no 4/10 bets. Every 3 wins crank it up by $20. Start on 4, win then jump to 10, then jump to 4. Lose a bet, increase martingale style to $80 lay, if I lose again, I stop. I may also hedge $7-8 on hardways.

Each one of the three I use has its strengths. I like #1 if I know I will play for a couple of hours. I increase the size of my bets on #2 and maybe start with $50 or even $100. And I love #3 after I made a profit. Now, I have lost on #2 and #3 before but never #1.

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Posted: 12 December 2009 03:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
arrgy
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Odds and ends and Yes I will bet the right way:

1. The don’t side is not the house side as someone mentioned. The house could care less how you bet, even if it was a $5 do $5 don’t with a $1 hedge on any craps, or 12. They still will make money off of paying you less. There have been a ton of times the only players at the table are don’t players.

2. In private games during WWII and before almost everyone bet against the shooter…..except the shooter. Very rarely did someone other than the shooter bet with the shooter most of the time.

3. The DC is very powerful, much more so than the line and most don’t players don’t realize it.

4. I never bet against a woman, a new shooter to the game of craps in general, or someone I observed getting clobbered on the right side who all the sudden switches to the don’t side thinking he will win.

Betting the other side:

I do bet the other side on occassion, and have won. Its simple I bet inside 5,6,8,9 for $50 or $60 each wait 4 rolls, then come down immediately on all bets regardless if I won or not. then sit out a shooter and do it again. I am a good dice controller, I have a few hour long rolls under my belt so I will do this when I roll. If I get knocked down, I martingale it up to $100 or $120, with a one unit win drop it all back down again to $50 or $60 then come down totally. People don’t realize how more often a cold/choppy roll comes up versus a hot roll, and to me a hot roll is someone who has a 9:1 ratio on 7’s. Most people are actually below the standard 6:1 ratio. I never bet Come or the line (unless shooting) or anything in the middle. You need to take down bets, or just completely walk away.

Hope this helps.

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