I’ve never won as much money playing anything else as I have with the Don’t Come bets spaced out 4 throws apart from the come-out rolls. I should get back to that before anything else. I do have to count on my fingers the number of throws, hope that’s not a tell to the eye in the sky.

ChumpChange - 14 February 2010 04:09 AM

I do have to count on my fingers the number of throws [between Don’t Come bets], hope that’s not a tell to the eye in the sky.

The eye in the sky couldn’t care less that you’re counting throws.  (I use the 5-count when I’m front side and keep track of the count on my fingers, and I haven’t taken a single word of flak from anyone anywhere.)  All the suits care about is how much and what type of action you’re giving them.

First of all, let’s bury this “six-rolls” idea. The average number of rolls before a shooter sevens out is 8.52, assuming he/she doesn’t just abandon the dice for some reason. How do we get this? To figure this out, we need to refer to the “perfect 1980”, which is the distribution of all possible outcomes of a pass/come bet, weighted by integers:

comeout win 440
comeout loss 220 660 comeout decisions
win on 6   125
lose on 6   150
win on 8   125
lose in 8   150
win on 5     88
lose on 5   132
win on 9     88
lose on 9   132
win on 4     55
lose on 4   110 1320 point decisions
win on 10   55 536 point wins
lose on 10   110 784 point losses (seven-outs)
        ——
        1980

In the “perfect 1980”, we see 784 point losses (i.e. seven-outs) out of the total, so 784/1980 = .39596.  1 / .39596 = 2.5256, so that means the average number of decisions per hand (shooter) is 2.5256.

How many rolls per pass decision, on average?

Again, we can use the “perfect 1980” to figure this out:

If the bet is resolved on the comeout, that’s one roll.
We have 660 of those.
550 times the point is either six or eight
  (six or eight) and seven have 11 ways to be rolled, 36/11 = 3.27, plus comeout = 4.27
440 times the point is either five or nine
  (five or nine) and seven have 10 ways to be rolled, 36 / 10 = 3.6, plus comeout = 4.6
330 times the point is either four or ten
  (four or ten) and seven have 9 ways to be rolled, 36 / 9 = 4.0, plus comeout = 5.0
 
Now we just have to “weight” these to get the average.

660 * 1 =    660
550 * 4.27 = 2348.5      
440 * 4.6 = 2024
330 * 5   = 1650
        ———
        6682.5 / 1980 = 3.375
       
So, the average number of rolls to a pass/come decision is 3.375, and the average hand is 2.5256 decisions, so the average hand is 3.375 * 2.5256 = 8.5235 rolls.

Of course, this is an average, and the range can be anywhere from 1 to many, many rolls. Any system that attempts to use this figure, or the erroneous six, to “predict” the next seven-out is based on a misapprehension, since the probability of a seven never changes, no matter how many rolls have occurred since the last one.

If the probability of a seven-out on any given hand is .39596, then the probability of NOT sevening out is its complement, 1 - .39596 = .60404. Using this, we can calculate the probabilities of going any number of decisions without sevening out, by raising that .60404 to that power:

p(no dec w/o 7-out)= .39596
p(1 dec w/o 7-out) = .60404
p(2 dec w/o 7-out) = .60404 squared = .36486
p(3 dec w/o 7-out) = .60404 cubed   = .22039
p(4 dec w/o 7-out) = .60404 ^ 4   = .13313
p(5 dec w/o 7-out) = .60404 ^ 5   = .08041 etc., etc.

I caution you, however, that these probabilities apply ONLY when the shooter first picks the dice up. Just like in a series of coin flips, after each decision the probabilities change, because one or more of those possibilities has/have been eliminated. If the shooter does not seven out on the first decision, p(no dec w/o 7 out) is now 0.00, p(1 dec) is no .39596, p(2 dec) is now .60404, etc.; if the shooter does seven out on the first bet, p(no dec w/o 7-out) is now 1.00, and all the others are reduced to zero.

Cumulative probability calculations do not give you any information about the next roll, the next bet, the next hand, the next whatever.

As far as rightside, darkside betting goes, keep in mind that the probability of winning a DP/DC bet is almost exactly the same as that of winning a pass/come bet. The skew comes into play only on the odds bet, where you have to lay the long end of the odds on the darkside, similar to lay bets vs. buy bets. However, even there the skew is reduced quite quickly as you make more bets. A session of 50 bets laying odds against the 4 (of course, you can’t actually do that, but this illustrates the principle) shows very little skew at all.

Skew in results of sessions of reasonable length comes from progressing bets on wins (positive skew) or on losses (negative skew).
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Yes I have played the Dark Side. The way I play it is quite simple, I bypass the come out role and wait till a point is established, then I play a Don’t Come bet. I continue to play a Don’t Come bet till I have all of the numbers covered, if it last that long before a seven is thrown. The beauty of the way I play is that when a point is made I cheer for the table and nobody boos me, not to mention that on the come out roll which happens quite frequently a lot of sevens are thrown. So every one wins and cheers including me on my previous Don’t Come bets.

The other thing I do is I never take odds on the Dark Side. I simply increase my initial bet, say for instance normally at $50.00. By taking odds you decrease your winnings by appr: 35% Like the late Jimmy the Greek said Never take odds on the Dark Side , how true. You also have to ride the hot streak and continue to play the Don’t Come . Keeping in mind the normal shooter rolls is 5 throws.

George,

diceman - 23 February 2010 02:10 PM

The other thing I do is I never take odds on the Dark Side. I simply increase my initial bet, say for instance normally at $50.00. By taking odds you decrease your winnings by appr: 35% Like the late Jimmy the Greek said Never take odds on the Dark Side , how true. You also have to ride the hot streak and continue to play the Don’t Come . Keeping in mind the normal shooter rolls is 5 throws.

George,

Of course, when you increase your flat bet, that increased amount is subject to the HA, whereas if you laid odds instead, that money is subject to no HA.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

diceman - 23 February 2010 02:10 PM

The other thing I do is I never take odds on the Dark Side. I simply increase my initial bet, say for instance normally at $50.00. By taking odds you decrease your winnings by appr: 35% Like the late Jimmy the Greek said Never take odds on the Dark Side , how true. You also have to ride the hot streak and continue to play the Don’t Come . Keeping in mind the normal shooter rolls is 5 throws.

George,

The average number of rolls in a hand (shooter) is 8.52, actually, which includes comeout decisions, of course. The average number of rolls in a pass decision is 3.375. After a point is established, the average number of rolls to a DECISION, win or lose, is between 3.27 (6/8) and 4.0 (4/10).

Say you have a $50 DC bet and it goes to a 4. The expected value of that bet is now $16.67. If you lay odds for $100, the expected value of that bet is zero, as it is for all odds bets.

If instead, you take that $100 and put it on the next two DC bets, the expected value from that $100 is -$1.40, because you have to subject it to the comeout roll, where the DP/DC has a decided disadvantage.

Never overlook the comeout roll and its effect.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

DICE CONTROL WORKS LIKE THIS:

ANY BET YOU CARE TO MAKE ON A DICE TABLE CAN BE WON, NOT ONCE, BUT TWICE OR MORE BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN YOUR MAKING SMART BETS !

Sir MY DICE CONTROL JUST WON A BET—0-0- BIG DEAL !

tHE SECOND LARGEST HEADSTONES IN THE DICE BRICKWALL GRAVEYARD NEAR SEARCHLIGHT, NEVADA ARE THOSE PLAYERS WHO USED DICE CONTROL TO GET THE MONEY.

If you want to be a Dice baseball pitcher TRY SPINNING THE DICE-SCHOOL START TOMORROW.

One other item. THE DO PASS LINE(LIKE Amount) BET-YES , THE DO PASS LINE (SPELLED DO PASS) WILL -YES IT WILL- OUT PERFORM ANY DO PASS BOX (SPELLED BOX) NUMBER !!!!!!!!!!(SAM GRAFSTEIN)

In other words, a line bet will outperform a box number. so why dont players increase their line bets(50%) like they do with box numbers . How dumb can a dumb guy be ?

One other item. What is the smartest single beT on a dice table . YOU ARE NOT LIKELY TO GO BROKE(BRICKWALL GRAVEYArd)
if you know this answer .

DADOS http://www.diceprofession.com

The Dark Side.

Flat bets work , but laying the odds is slightly more profitable . It all depends on how you play the game . If you were to ask the EINSTEIN OF DICE (Sam Grafstein) what is the best play money can buy , his answer would be-PLAY THE DARK SIDE AND LAY ALL THE ODDS THE HOUSE WILL ALLOW .

However (careerwise) this is not going to work either UNLESS you know the NUMBER ONE RULE for playing the DARK SIDE , including professional STOP LOSS MOVES -which Sam Grafstein invented (Except 2 , which i am confident he would approve of)

Let me repeat ! Unless you know and use the number one DARK SIDE RULE ,and the professonal dark side STOP LOSS MOVES , then careerwise the OUTCOME WILL BE FATAL .

I have watched BACKSIDE players for 66 years( I am one ) good ones, very good ,  NOT AFRAID TO LAY ODDS AGAINST THE 6 OR THE 8 , (MOST DONT PASS PLAYERS ARE AFRAID OF THE 6 OR 8- ) -NOT AFRAID TO LAY MAX ODDS . SOME WILL LAY $1,000 NO 4 , PLUS $1,000 NO 10 THEN PLAY THE DONT PASS AND DONT COME LINE LAYING MAX ODDS BEHIND THE NUMBERS——STRONG PLAY———but to the trained eye of a professional Dark Side player , most of them i have shadowed have FATAL DARK SIDE MOVES -

Never chase a losing dark side bet ! Win one BAD bet then 83 more bad bets have YOUR ADDRESS and they will show up the next day at the dice table !

Some of these players say to me- “man i only CHASE a bettor twice” -(When i looked again it was 4 times!)
Once is to much , what is the GAIN ? (BIG DEAL)
It does not take a DEGREE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA to know that a shooter who can beat you for one bet can beat you for 44 OR MORE !
Chasing if just ONE (major) that LEADS THESE PLAYERS BACK TO THE PASS LINE or 1 800 tap city.
NOT KNOWING PROFESSIONAL STOP LOSS MOVES IS ANOTHER MAJOR, AND—NOT KNOWING HOW TO GIVE YOUR DARK SIDE MONEY A FAIR GAMBLE IS ANOTHER MAJOR . BY DOING SO YOU ARE ABLE TO PLAY FOR “KEEPS”!!!!!

FACT! - KNOWING ODDS HAS LESS TO DO WITH WINNING AT CRAPS THAN GIVING YOUR MONEY A FAIR GAMBLE .

I can look at a dice table , watch the players moves at this table and tell YOU by said moves IF THEY WILL EVENTUALLY HIT THE DICE BICKWALL from the way they play ! POCKET TURNED INSIDE OUT.  (from purple/greens to reds in less than a year)

My batting average for such predictions ? 100% !

Some listen , some dont -its your money ($10 )  A $10 book i wish i could have found when i started dice in LAS VEGAS 66 YEARS AGO; ALL I GOT WAS BOOKS ABOUT ODDS, THE PLAYS , AND———NO INFORMATION !   

WHAT GOOD IS IT TO BUY A DICE BOOK FULL OF ODDS IF IT DOES NOT TELL YOU HOW TO FAULT A DICE TABLE ?
BUT , I WON A BET SIRE ! HOT DOG-GEE WHIZ ! MAY I SAY THIS————-
ANY BET YOU CARE TO MAKE ON A DICE TABLE CAN BE WON -NOT ONCE BUT TWICE AND MORE—BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOUR MAKING SMART BETS ! 

Dados————- http://www.diceprofession.com

Little tip for counting rolls or anything at the craps table.

I use the upper chip rail as my counting rail (when counting), placing $1 dollar chips in the top rail for each count.
Sometimes use that to keep track of horn rolls.. if i see 15 rolls go by without one I might start betting the horn..

in any case.. it beats using your fingers ;o)

Flash - 23 March 2010 07:17 PM

Little tip for counting rolls or anything at the craps table.

I use the upper chip rail as my counting rail (when counting), placing $1 dollar chips in the top rail for each count.
Sometimes use that to keep track of horn rolls.. if i see 15 rolls go by without one I might start betting the horn..

Perfect illustration of the Gambler’s Fallacy, i.e. changing probabilities based on cumulative probability calculations. Completely false, of course.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

goatcabin - 23 March 2010 09:13 PM

Flash - 23 March 2010 07:17 PM

Little tip for counting rolls or anything at the craps table.

I use the upper chip rail as my counting rail (when counting), placing $1 dollar chips in the top rail for each count.
Sometimes use that to keep track of horn rolls.. if i see 15 rolls go by without one I might start betting the horn..

Perfect illustration of the Gambler’s Fallacy, i.e. changing probabilities based on cumulative probability calculations. Completely false, of course.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

True enough.. I’d never claim that to be a good bet.. it’s just something i do from time to time. Point was that using the chip rail is easier than using your fingers to keep count, especially if you run out of fingers ;o)

I use STOP LOSS moves for my Dont Pass play . Unless you KNOW and use the NUMBER ONE stop loss move with BACKSIDE BETTING then , CAREERWISE , the outcome will be FATAL.

In addition to the above Dont Pass FACT , you must be like the Cong , able to take the STEAM !

The pressure under which the WRONG Bettor puts himself, can be likend to a(S) MARKET BOOKIE
is ALWAYS SELLING SHORT. Unlike a horse or sports bookie , the WRONG Bettor has no way in which to BALANCE HIS BOOKS (Except gutless hedging, that gives him NO protectiuon angainst the 7 or 11 !

As a WRONG bettor you are not there to win friiends ( FEW AROUND!) , you arenot playing for FUN , you are there to GET THE MONEY !

Note: Most all WRONG bettors are so SADISTIC that they actually wish each other BAD LUCK .

I have been a WRONG BETTOR since 1941 ,  which started aboard the USS Neeches (white dice)in 30 foot hugh waves the day the War broke out(WW11). when i finally got the LAS VEGAS (1946 )  i got real BACKSIDE HELP from a professional out of Canada .
Ever since i have been able to manage WELL playing DONT PASS plays . I watch other WRONG players , (some   5 years or more ) they ALL switch back to the FRONT SIDE .

I watched a HEAVY BACKSIDE DUDE for 2 years , (VEGAS, NEW ORLEANS, COAST ) every time i went to a club there is was -the HOUSE USUALLY GOT EXCITED , he was WINNING heavy stuff . He would lay $400 no 4 annd $ 400 no 10 , then make a flat $25 wager on the Dont pass line , if he got a number he would lay 20x Odds . The Pit boss always had his EYE on him , players next to him would grumble , NASTY at time , on this day a fight almost erupted- he told the other player (Do Pass) i’m not playing AGAINST YOU. He was right , blame the house , they put the dont pass line on their dice cloth ! Srange, but i used to run into this DUDE in Vegas , MOSTLY NEW ORLENS , and the always played DONT PASS this way. Starting out $400 no 4 and $400 no 10 ,
then a $25 flat bet on the DONT PASS LINE , if he got a number he would lay max odds EXCEPT—on a 6 or 8 !

On these numbers hw would lay less odds , or remove them -A FATAL MOVE !
Fact -CAREERWISE , if you avoid the 6 or 8 (dont pass play) pick them up , then- yes then CAREERWISE -, the HOUSE- yes the HOUSE WILL——cut you a BRAND NEW DONT PASS ASSHOLE .

The last time i saw him he was picking the 6 and the 8 numbers up . His SKULL is WRONG -I DONT THINK HE RELIZES that if you LOSE a 4 or 10 you must win 3 to SHOW A PROFIT . After 5 years , (for many months now) I nor any Pit Boss has spotted him! Or the Doctor who lays $25,000 against the 6 or 8 ( good move ) regardless of how hot the shooter (dice) is , he explained to his lady companion ,“i’ll chase the shit out of him” .

After 66 years of dice , it is very likely i have seen the likes a all WRONG players , most , like the Doctor cut off at the Cashiers cage , (down$150,000 chasing a shooter)—-or now they rest in the DICE BRICKWALL GRAVEYARD GRAVEYARD , near Searchlight Nevada from avoiding the 6 & 8 when it can be made a 100% winning wager(Guarenteed-and sneaky)

DADOS, Correr el gallo

,

I am a Dark Side player. I have been having success with the Dark Side for a long time. I do agree with what one member here said about it ruining the atmosphere. I hate being that person that ruins it, but then again, I am at the casino to make money not to have fun. Most people, seem to lose so I guess they are there to have fun. But at times it can be fun being a dark side player. I don’t really mess around with too many of the dark side bets. I zone in on one bet and use everything else at the table to my advantage. I always make sure to scout out a table before I plat at it. If I see people smiling and cheering, then there is no way that I am going to play at the table. If that table is my only choice then I stand there to wait for it to turn warm or cold. A table cannot stay hot forever, that would be bad for the casino. I have written a up a method on how to consistently make money as a dark side player. You can find it at beatcasinocraps.com.

beatcasinocraps - 03 July 2010 12:36 PM

I am a Dark Side player. I have been having success with the Dark Side for a long time. I do agree with what one member here said about it ruining the atmosphere. I hate being that person that ruins it, but then again, I am at the casino to make money not to have fun. Most people, seem to lose so I guess they are there to have fun. But at times it can be fun being a dark side player. I don’t really mess around with too many of the dark side bets. I zone in on one bet and use everything else at the table to my advantage. I always make sure to scout out a table before I plat at it. If I see people smiling and cheering, then there is no way that I am going to play at the table. If that table is my only choice then I stand there to wait for it to turn warm or cold. A table cannot stay hot forever, that would be bad for the casino. I have written a up a method on how to consistently make money as a dark side player. You can find it at beatcasinocraps.com.

I checked it out. It’s a load of crap!
Cheers,
Alan Shank

goatcabin - 03 July 2010 03:41 PM

beatcasinocraps - 03 July 2010 12:36 PM

I am a Dark Side player. I have been having success with the Dark Side for a long time. I do agree with what one member here said about it ruining the atmosphere. I hate being that person that ruins it, but then again, I am at the casino to make money not to have fun. Most people, seem to lose so I guess they are there to have fun. But at times it can be fun being a dark side player. I don’t really mess around with too many of the dark side bets. I zone in on one bet and use everything else at the table to my advantage. I always make sure to scout out a table before I plat at it. If I see people smiling and cheering, then there is no way that I am going to play at the table. If that table is my only choice then I stand there to wait for it to turn warm or cold. A table cannot stay hot forever, that would be bad for the casino. I have written a up a method on how to consistently make money as a dark side player. You can find it at beatcasinocraps.com.

I checked it out. It’s a load of crap!
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I am interested in why you say that. I noticed that there are some typos on my site so that doesn’t help my case. I need to get better eyes. But why would the system be a load of crap?
I didn’t really provide too much information about the system on the site so I am assuming that you are coming from the prospective that all system sellers scam people which seems to be true for the most part. But I just want to lay out what I have done here.

I have not found some sort of magical bet on the craps table that is a holy grail. There is no such bet. If there was then craps would not exist.
The bet that I use is one of the most simple bets that you can find on the table. I’ll even tell you all what it is since I already posted which side I play on. The bet is the Don’t Pass Line bet. See it does exist!!!

Now here is the thing..the key to success with this dark side bet is not the bet itself, it is how you play the bet. It has nothing to do with laying odds, it has a lot to do with how you look at the table. I have a unique way of looking at the table that has made this bet my most successful bet. This is what has brought me success. I was explaining to one of my clients tonight that there is a difference between winning and playing. Winning craps is an art. It is kind of funny how I spent so long trying to figure this game out and then a couple of years ago I realized how to play the most basic bet at the table.

I am basically selling my work, my art, that has brought me some success. but for those of you who don’t want to buy it, that is fine. I am offering to help people and I guess, as they say..time is money..But anyway, I suggest that you just take a look at the don’t pass line bet and try to look at things a little different. Think outside of the box.