Southern-Comfort - 21 April 2012 06:42 PM

... I can argue that the same number has to roll twice because thats the whole point.  In a game where the average roll is about 7 (including the comeout and the 7-out) relying on a number to roll twice is.. well… gambling!  I’m a gambler, but if I can go for collecting on one roll instead of gambling on two… makes sense to me.

Come bettors are not betting that a number will roll twice; they are betting that a number will roll again.  Those two bets are not identical.  Similarly, Place/Put bettors are not betting that a number will roll once; they are betting that a particular number will roll once.  Again, not the same bet.  Contrasting Come bets to Place/Put bets on the basis of how many times a number must roll to win is therefore meaningless because both bets need a number to roll only once.  The Place/Put bettor picks that number him/herself; the Come bettor lets the dice pick the number.

The Midnight Skulker - 25 April 2012 08:59 AM

Come bettors are not betting that a number will roll twice; they are betting that a number will roll again.  Those two bets are not identical. 

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/again
Actually, after my initial thought that you weren’t making any better sense than KST, I thought about it and I believe what you were saying is that the come bet is actually two bet in tandem with each other.  The first bet being a one-roll bet trying to hi a seven (or eleven).  After that it becomes a multi-rol even-odds bet (which you can lay odds on for a better return) on whichever number had hit.
If thats what you’re saying, its simply a passline bet with one less roll until the dreaded seven-out.
The first bet has tremendous odds against it, 6 to 1 I believe… even payout isn’t worth those odds.  As for the second bet… adding odds helps, but you’ve still shaved a roll off the average, and into the casino’s favor haven’t you?
We all know that end-of-day all the rolls will basically average out, and all the rooll sessions will be about a seven out after 6 rolls.  Maybe seven, lets agree that its not one.  I have already posted an example of what an average roll, based on that criteria would end up being, compaing Put and Come.  Show me, based on average, how a come turns out better than the same bet on a Put please?

Southern-Comfort - 25 April 2012 09:27 AM

The Midnight Skulker - 25 April 2012 08:59 AM

Come bettors are not betting that a number will roll twice; they are betting that a number will roll again.  Those two bets are not identical.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/again

And your point is?  The first definition of “again” given at the site cited is, “1. Once more; anew”.  Those who claim a Come bet is inferior to a Place/Put bet because a number must roll twice instead of only once imply that the Come bet is being made on a particular number just as the Place/Put bet is.  Were that the case then of course Come bets would have less chance to win, but that is not the case.  At the time the Come bet supposedly needs a number to roll twice it has already rolled once and therefore only needs to roll once for the bet to win.  Now, if the goal is to win more faster when things go as hoped (i.e. box numbers are being thrown a lot) then Place/Put betting will outperform Come betting because Place/Put bets will win when Come bets are merely moving to their point, but alternate scenarios (when things do not go as hoped) can also be composed to show the opposite.

Southern-Comfort - 25 April 2012 09:27 AM

If thats what you’re saying, its simply a passline bet with one less roll until the dreaded seven-out.

You can’t be serious.  You mean to tell us that all you needed explained to you was that a Come bet was a traveling Pass Line bet?  And then you would have understood everything?  That is really basic craps knowledge.  SC, I thought you knew more about the game.  Furthermore, I am confused as to how one can objectively compare two bets without really understanding how both of those bets function.

To say that the Come bet has “one [fewer] roll until the dreaded seven-out” implies that the Come is somehow not as good as the Pass Line because it doesn’t last as long.  I’m not sure if you were trying to imply this.  Of course, this is not true, as Pass Line bets and Come bets are equally as good (mathematically).  While you can think of the (established) Come bet as being shorter when both bets lose, it can also be longer if the PL point is made and the Come number isn’t.  However, the number of throws a PL or Come bet is “up” is irrelevant since all that matters is the throw(s) on which these bets are decided.  After all, if a “point” is determined for a Come bet (didn’t win or lose on the first roll), and it hits the very next throw… who cares how long the bet was up?

Southern-Comfort - 25 April 2012 09:27 AM

Show me, based on average, how a come turns out better than the same bet on a Put please?

I just edited this post.  Originally, I was going to walk you through it step by step… but now I think I’ll just leave you in the dark and let you think that Put bets are better than Come bets.  I’m starting to wonder if falcon hacked into your account.

Southern-Comfort - 25 April 2012 09:27 AM

Show me, based on average, how a come turns out better than the same bet on a Put please?

On its comeout roll a Come bet has 8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose, a net advantage of 4 wins; a Put bet has 3, 4, or 5 ways to win depending on the point and 6 ways to lose, a net disadvantage of 3, 2, or 1 losses.  Once a point is established the two bets are at the same disadvantage with 3, 4, or 5 ways to win depending on the point and 6 ways to lose.  Overall, then, Come bets are expected to outperform Put bets because of their first roll advantage.   

Just in case you actually meant Place instead of Put see http://www.crapsforum.com/viewreply/14406/.

The Midnight Skulker - 25 April 2012 11:57 PM

Southern-Comfort - 25 April 2012 09:27 AM

Show me, based on average, how a come turns out better than the same bet on a Put please?

On its comeout roll a Come bet has 8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose, a net advantage of 4 wins; a Put bet has 3, 4, or 5 ways to win depending on the point and 6 ways to lose, a net disadvantage of 3, 2, or 1 losses.  Once a point is established the two bets are at the same disadvantage with 3, 4, or 5 ways to win depending on the point and 6 ways to lose.  Overall, then, Come bets are expected to outperform Put bets because of their first roll advantage.   

Just in case you actually meant Place instead of Put see http://www.crapsforum.com/viewreply/14406/.

One the comeout roll the bet has 8 ways to win, therefore 28 ways to not win, for even odds on a single roll.  Thats a good bet?  I guess the not losing it all changes everything.  Anyway, I asked about what happens on a average roll… as in take all the rolls in the day, and averahe them out… as in a roll starts after someone just sevened out.  average woukld be no seven.  Yes it happens,... so do 2 and 12 on tghe comeout, but we are assuming none of those on a single roll as wekll, ok?  So, show me, on a roll which starts with establishing a point, and goes the average length of a roll, how it all works out.
That being said… I stated early on that I’ve never tried a Put bet and I am speaking from innocence (ignorance?) about it.  I’ve looked and am left with an question which may be central.  As I came into this, I was understanding that you can place a Put bet on any number at any time.  As I’ve looked around I get the impression that my understanding may be incorrect, but I’ve been unable to find a reference which is definitive about how they are placed.  Maybe you can help me.  Now, as I understood it, after the comeout is established (say a 4), I could then place the 6 and/or 8 at will.  But looking, it seems more like , if I want to place a Put on the 6 (after another number is made) I can only do that when a 6 is rolled… which if its the case, I can understand that it, like the come bet, requires youir number to have been rolled twice to complete.
Which is the correct version of the Put bet?

Depending on the casino, you can make a put bet on any point number at any time.

It will pay better than a place bet or buy bet if you take more than 6 times odds.

You miss the possibility of a win on 7 or 11 by not going thru the come box.

It is inferior to the come bet when you consider, of the 2 bets ( come and put ) which will make you the most money.

777

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 05:17 AM

One the comeout roll the [Come] bet has 8 ways to win, therefore 28 ways to not win, for even odds on a single roll.  Thats a good bet?

It is a better bet than one which also pays only even money and has, at most, only 5 ways to win.

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 05:17 AM

I guess the not losing it all changes everything.

How about also having fewer ways to lose, 4 ways vs. 6 ways?

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 05:17 AM

Anyway, I asked about what happens on a average roll… as in take all the rolls in the day, and averahe them out… as in a roll starts after someone just sevened out.  average woukld be no seven.  Yes it happens,... so do 2 and 12 on tghe comeout, but we are assuming none of those on a single roll as wekll, ok?

Not OK.  The comeout roll is what differentiates a Come bet from a Put bet, and it is on that roll that the Come bet has the better chance of winning.  After the comeout roll the two bets are identical, assuming the Put bet is made on the Come bet’s point.

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 05:17 AM

So, show me, on a roll which starts with establishing a point, and goes the average length of a roll, how it all works out.

What’s to show?  Once the Come bet establishes a point that number must roll again before a 7 for the bet to win.  Once a Put bet is made on a number that number must roll before a 7 for the bet to win.

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 05:17 AM

That being said… I stated early on that I’ve never tried a Put bet and I am speaking from innocence (ignorance?) about it.  I’ve looked and am left with an question which may be central.  As I came into this, I was understanding that you can place a Put bet on any number at any time.

That is correct.

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 05:17 AM

As I’ve looked around I get the impression that my understanding may be incorrect, but I’ve been unable to find a reference which is definitive about how they are placed.  Maybe you can help me.  Now, as I understood it, after the comeout is established (say a 4), I could then place the 6 and/or 8 at will.  But looking, it seems more like , if I want to place a Put on the 6 (after another number is made) I can only do that when a 6 is rolled… which if its the case, I can understand that it, like the come bet, requires youir number to have been rolled twice to complete.
Which is the correct version of the Put bet?

A Put bet can be thought of in either or both of two ways.
    1. A Put bet is identical to a Come bet that has established a point.  It pays even money when its number rolls and loses when a 7 rolls.  You can take odds on a Put bet just as you can on an established Come bet, and as Basic Sevens noted, if enough odds are taken the Put bet will pay better than a Place bet on the same number.
    2. A Put bet is identical to a Place bet except ...
      A) it is a contract bet and cannot be turned off or taken down, and
      B) it pays only even money (although any odds taken are paid at true odds).

Holy Moly !!........“I rest my case”

Between MidNite and K….that covers it pretty good.

777

Ok and thanks to those who helped clear up some of the mist that my searching caused to envelope me.  But one issue remains for me.  You are all basing superiority on a single roll that has a slight chance of winning, a slighter chance of losing, and if neither of those happen you sttill have to let t sit until it plays out in the casino’s favor.  I understand what you are trying to say, but I just can’t see how that improves things.
I wish I had learned to program wincraps, this is a perfect situation for it.  Until then I suppose this will go down like the DI vs Random discussions, with me being the non-believer for now at least.

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 10:32 AM

... one issue remains for me.  You are all basing superiority on a single roll that has a slight chance of winning, a slighter chance of losing, and if neither of those happen you sttill have to let t sit until it plays out in the casino’s favor.  I understand what you are trying to say, but I just can’t see how that improves things.

At the risk of beating a horse that, while not dead, does not wish to be beaten, permit me one last attempt.  Given a choice between blackjack games with identical rules, except that one offers late surrender and the other does not, would you have a preference for one game over the other?  After all, late surrender is recommended under very few circumstances.  Does it make a difference?

OK, one absolutely last attempt.  If you were going to play roulette would you rather play on a European (single zero) wheel or an American (double zero) wheel.  After all, 00 doesn’t come up very often.  Does it make a difference?

The Midnight Skulker - 26 April 2012 11:31 AM

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 10:32 AM

... one issue remains for me.  You are all basing superiority on a single roll that has a slight chance of winning, a slighter chance of losing, and if neither of those happen you sttill have to let t sit until it plays out in the casino’s favor.  I understand what you are trying to say, but I just can’t see how that improves things.

At the risk of beating a horse that, while not dead, does not wish to be beaten, permit me one last attempt.  Given a choice between blackjack games with identical rules, except that one offers late surrender and the other does not, would you have a preference for one game over the other?  After all, late surrender is recommended under very few circumstances.  Does it make a difference?

OK, one absolutely last attempt.  If you were going to play roulette would you rather play on a European (single zero) wheel or an American (double zero) wheel.  After all, 00 doesn’t come up very often.  Does it make a difference?

Thank you for the second example, as I’m not exactly more than a casual BJ player (brother’s wife laughs at me when I split those tens).  Roulette I am more faliar with, and yes I’d prefer one green meanie to two… however I would disagree that a single zero is an absolutely terrible table to play at while a two zero is a good one.
That being said, assuming you are referring to the “comeout” chances of a seven winning versus a loss… while an immediate loss on a come bet is smaller than the chance of the win, the combined effect of the little chance and the more-than-likely chance of a seven out after the first roll is nothing similar to the chances of a zero or double-zero in roulette.  I promise you that I am trying to be open minded on this, and I can see you trying to convince me… but saying that a passline bet is better than a place bet (similar situation) isn’t going to do it.  Can someone who like programming wincraps give it a whirl?  On come bet versus on Put bet over, say, 10,000 rolls?  One time around with no odds, then again with 10x odds?

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 10:32 AM

You are all basing superiority on a single roll that has a slight chance of winning

Any bet that I am a 2-to-1 favorite to win is whole lot better than “a slight chance.”

Sancho Panza - 26 April 2012 01:08 PM

Southern-Comfort - 26 April 2012 10:32 AM

You are all basing superiority on a single roll that has a slight chance of winning

Any bet that I am a 2-to-1 favorite to win is whole lot better than “a slight chance.”

If I could get that kind of odds on a comeout roll… I’d be rich.  How do you get those odds on a negative expectation bet?