Hey guys, I apologize in advance if there is already an old thread that has this content in it, but I was just wondering what you guys think about this. I am a Dark Side player, and I discovered this last night. Like the subject says:

$27 on Don’t (for insurance) and 27 bucks across after the point is established. What do you all think?

Well… you’re trying to save your $27 from a seven (out) during intermediate rolls.  But you must realize that nothing is saving your $27 from sevens on the come-out roll.  Additionally, you now lose $27 on a yo, or when the point is hit.  If you assume that sevens are fairly equally distributed throughout a session of play, then this method increases your chances of losing $27.

If you’re someone who likes to bet across, then just do it and don’t worry about hedging.

But since you’re a Don’t player… I’d recommend you just stick with that instead.

You can hedge a DPL bet if you have a DC bet out on a number.

You will have a DC bet out there if you play 1 or 2 DC bets and the point is made.

I basically agree with K and not make a hedge play as part of your strategy but only to hedge on occasion…..an exception.

777

K, say I just lay $27 across without the DP bar bet. I feel like in the long run, it would hit 7 more times then I would make profit…so still don’t understand how my hedge bet doesn’t make much sense…

When you go to Tunica, make a habit of going $27 across, get your ass kicked, it will make all the sense in the world.
Wisdom found on another board; “Thou shalt not hedge”

TunicaBound - 12 April 2012 03:55 PM

K, say I just lay $27 across without the DP bar bet. I feel like in the long run, it would hit 7 more times then I would make profit.

I’m sorry, I don’t understand what you wrote here.  Can you clarify, please?

If you bet $27 across, “it would hit seven more times” than what?  Then you would make profit?  I don’t understand what you’re saying.

My bad… I meant it would hit 7 more times than the point, once it’s established.

TunicaBound - 19 April 2012 03:21 PM

My bad… I meant it would hit 7 more times than the point, once it’s established.

Well… I don’t know how you figured it would hit “seven more times” than the point, but “hitting” isn’t everything.  You also have to factor in how much you’re winning.  When you bet $26 or $27 across, you only win $7 or $9 when and if one of them hits.

sounds good…but you have to remember, the casino owns the 7.  You don’t have to worry about the 11 on the come out, as the 3 will balance it out in the long run. But on the come out, that 7 causes you to be negative $27….so say the roll goes 7 (-$27), point (say a 6), 8 (+$7), 6 (-$27), point (this time a 4), seven out (win $27 on dp)...many rolls go like this, or very close to this..so for that roll, you’re in the red $40+  not a very good system

I see this and similar Do/Don’t systems regularly. They’re like every system in that they work…sometimes. The problem I see with this particular strategy is the fact that every 4.5 rolls on average, you’ll lose your $27 Don’t bet when 7 or 11 rolls. Then what? $54 on the Don’t and $54 across? I’ve found a player(IMHO) is better off playing EITHER the Do or Don’t fairly exclusively, focusing on aggressively pressing during streaks.

Why not bet the PL for $5 and the DPL for $5.  Then once the point is established, as a “Don’t” player place your odds on the “Don’t” portion and play across the board for $32 (assuming a $5 table), and allow it to play out.  With every number that is hit that is not the point you pocket $7 or $9.  Your odds portion bet is between $40 and $30 depending on the point.  Two hits and a SO gives you a slight win.  A point conversion requires more hits to give you a win, but it is not a disasterous loss, i.e. the point is a 10; your “don’t” odds are $40; the first roll is a 10; lose $40; collect $9; net loss $31.

Consider the play buying in for $300.  You should be able to play on that money for quite some time, and if there are “reasonable” table conditions with shooters throwing three or four numbers or more per hand with few point conversions which most would agree is the norm, winning is very possible.

falcon

TunicaBound - 19 April 2012 03:21 PM

My bad… I meant it would hit 7 more times than the point, once it’s established.

And the important item here is that it must get established.  On a random roll, you have 8 combinations trying to knock you down.  You cannot discount the fact that there are lots of players who have a skill or just blind luck to throw that yo or big red on the come out.

And look on the net for sure fire betting systems.  At least one of them will guarantee that you’ll make $$$ but ALL you have to do is get past the come out 7.

And you are forgetting the point. Shooters make 1 point frequently enough that you can’t bank on anyone not making a point, even the 4 and the 10.

And don’t forget the house edge.  The house takes a small portion of every winning bet.  You have to win more times than you lose, just to stay even.

So, the rolls go 11, 7, 6, 8, 6.  You’ve won $7 on the 8 but you lost $81 on your DP bet.  Now you have an up-hill struggle to get back to even and you’ll be laying out $54 each round.  You’re gonna need a pretty deep pocket to make this one work.

But, this can work when the table is choppy.  With rolls like 11, 3, 12, 6, 4, 10, 7.  ($-27 +27 +0 +9 +9 +27 -27[place] = +18) You make a little bit of money on your place bets to offset the $27 place loss, and a couple of DP offsets.  I’d say the secret to this strategy would be to set a win limit on the place bets and take them down after 2, 3, or 4 hits, then wait for the 7.

But, you have to watch out for hot shooters. When you see them, tone back the DP action.

Hedging works for some people, in spite of the disgust that it draws from others.  Here you are trying to balance out the $27 place bets against the arrival of the 7. Ask yourself, why $27?  Why not $32?  Why not $17 on the 5, 6, 8 and $5 on the field for $22 and a $22 DP? Why not Ricochet? There are hundreds of options to choose from.

When you hedge your bets, the goal is to limit your losses while still eking out some wins. If this suits your personality, I think you are on the right path. If this does suit you, you should read some of John Patrick’s books.

epenak

So that is how you hedge the Iron Cross? Make a DP bet for 22? What if the 7 or 11 rolls on the come out roll? Any other ideas?

joe57777 - 09 July 2012 07:20 PM

So that is how you hedge the Iron Cross? Make a DP bet for 22? What if the 7 or 11 rolls on the come out roll? Any other ideas?

If you were to re-read my post, on the Come Out one plays both the PL AND the DP.  Any 7/11 winner pushes with the DP bet and you start again.  The idea is to get past the Come out so that a DP odds may be played w/o any real jeapardy as displayed above.  Now for you naysayers think about the huge losses when those multiple 12’s Come out in bunches and the PL bet is lost - OMG!!

Look everything has a downside, and if your negativity is so strong just don’t play.

falcon

Just asking questions. How do people think that ANY odds are free? Odds are a bet on the table, and ANY bet on the table is not free from the house taking it for one reason or another. Example, if you put $10 on the passline and back it up with any amount of odds allowed by the casino rules. Those odds are not free because when the 7 rolls on the next roll or two or three those odds get scooped up and join the house’s huge rack of chips in front of the pit bosses. So what makes those odds so free and the best value in the casino? For who?

Maybe because it is a fair bet…......with neither the casino or the player having an any advantage.

You are paid true odds. This is the interpretation most people understand, for the term free odds.

777