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Passline Bet
Posted: 02 March 2009 07:30 PM   [ Ignore ]
delizle
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Say i were to bet 2 $25 dollar chips ($50 in total) on the come out roll, the roll comes and it is 4, would i then be aloud to remove one of my $25dollar chips (making the passline bet $25) and place it as odds?

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Posted: 07 March 2009 09:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
oChRoNiCo
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no once the dice are rolled your $50 bet would be contracted and you would not be allowed to subtract however you are allowed to add to your bet my advice to you would be this depending on the table odds of course most casinos i play at have minimum 10x odds so i would play the minimum passline bet say its $5 table i would play $5 on passline and $50 odds hope this helps answer your question

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Posted: 09 February 2010 03:11 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
goatcabin
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delizle - 02 March 2009 07:30 PM

Say i were to bet 2 $25 dollar chips ($50 in total) on the come out roll, the roll comes and it is 4, would i then be aloud to remove one of my $25dollar chips (making the passline bet $25) and place it as odds?

The confusing thing about the “line bets” in craps (pass, come, don’t pass, don’t come) is their two-part nature. On the first roll, the bet may or may not be resolved (decided).

pass/come   7 or 11   = win
            2, 3 or 12 = lose
don’t pass/don’t come 7 or 11 = lose
                      2 or 3   = win
                          12 = “push” - no decision

The essence of craps is that the two six-sided dice create 36 possible outcomes, but since you add the two numbers together, you get only eleven possible sums, 2 through 12, distributed like this

2, 12   1 each
3, 11   2 each
4, 10   3 each
5, 9     4 each
6, 8     5 each
7       6

So, seven is the most likely sum, because it can be made six different ways, and two or twelve can be made only one way each.
This means that, on the comeout (first) roll, the passline bettor has 8 ways to win, just 4 ways to lose, while the don’t-pass bettor has 8 ways to lose, 3 ways to win and one way to “push”.  So the pass bettor has an advantage on the comeout roll, the don’t pass bettor a disadvantage.

If the first roll is not 7 or 11 or 2 or 3 or 12, the bet is not resolved; rather, the number rolled (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) becomes the “point”, and the dealers will put a big “ON” button behind that number on each side of the layout. Now, for this second part of the bet, the rules change completely. For the pass/come, the shooter must roll this “point” number again, before rolling a seven, in order to win. The don’t-pass bettor wins if the seven comes before the point number.

Since the seven is the most likely of all the sums, the pass bettor is more likely to lose than to win, while the don’t-pass bettor is more likely to win.

So:

comeout:  pass/come more likely to win than lose; don’t pass/don’t come more likely to lose than win
point established: pass/come more likely to lose than win; don’t pass/don’t come more likely to win than lose

So, if you have made a $50 pass bet, and a point number is rolled, the casino has given you that 8:4 chance to win on the comeout; they are not going to let you take any money off that bet, now that the odds are in the casino’s favor.

By the same token, you cannot make a don’t pass bet after a point has been established, because you have not subjected your money to the 3:8 disadvantage on the comeout. Some people try to do this; it is cheating.

On the other hand, the casino WILL let you make a pass bet after a point has been established. Why? Because the bet is now more likely to lose. The player has missed out on the comeout roll. After a point has been established, the pass/come player has only about a 40% chance to win, but the casino pays only even money, not a good deal at all.

By the way, in order to shoot the dice, the player must have at least a minimum bet on the pass or don’t pass. The shooter can shoot the dice until he/she “sevens out”, i.e. establishes a point and rolls a seven before repeating that point number. This is called a “hand”.

Here’s something called “the perfect 1980” that represents the “expected” distribution of 1980 pass or come decisions:

win on comeout     440
lose on comeout     220   660 comeout resolutions
win on point 6 or 8   250   1320 point resolutions
lose on point 6 or 8 300   536 point wins
win on point 5 or 9   176   784 seven-out
lose on point 5 or 9 264
win on point 4 or 10 110
lose on point 4 or 10 220
                    ——-
                    1980

One can glean a lot of information from “the perfect 1980”.
one-third of the decisions come on the comeout roll, of which twice as many are winners as losers
two-thirds of the decisions come after a point is established
after a point is established the average probability of making the point is .406 (536/1320)
before the comeout roll, the probability of a seven-out is .396 (784/1980)
the average number of decisions per “hand” is 2.526 (1980/784)

Since the average number of rolls for a decision is 3.375, the average “hand” lasts 8.525 rolls.

There is a near-mirror-image distribution for don’t pass/don’t come decisions, with the comeout looking like this:

440 lose comeout
165 win comeout
55 push on comeout

Cheers,
Alan Shank

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Posted: 10 February 2010 02:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
The Midnight Skulker
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goatcabin - 09 February 2010 03:11 PM

... the casino WILL let you make a pass bet after a point has been established. Why? Because the bet is now more likely to lose. The player has missed out on the comeout roll.

A small point of order.  Some jurisdictions—Atlantic City is the one with which I am familiar—have a “protect us from ourselves” law that does not allow casinos to book flat pass line bets after the point is established.  There is also no corner red for the same reason: place bets on 6 and 8 pay better than Big 6 and Big 8 bets while winning and losing under the same conditions.

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Posted: 10 February 2010 04:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
goatcabin
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The Midnight Skulker - 10 February 2010 02:53 PM
goatcabin - 09 February 2010 03:11 PM

... the casino WILL let you make a pass bet after a point has been established. Why? Because the bet is now more likely to lose. The player has missed out on the comeout roll.

A small point of order.  Some jurisdictions—Atlantic City is the one with which I am familiar—have a “protect us from ourselves” law that does not allow casinos to book flat pass line bets after the point is established.  There is also no corner red for the same reason: place bets on 6 and 8 pay better than Big 6 and Big 8 bets while winning and losing under the same conditions.

“corner red” ???? You’re referring to Big 6/Big 8, right? Never heard that term.
But, yes, I had heard that Atlantic City had some “consumer-friendly” rules.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

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Posted: 10 February 2010 05:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
The Midnight Skulker
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goatcabin - 10 February 2010 04:18 PM

“corner red” ???? You’re referring to Big 6/Big 8, right? Never heard that term.

A common call on some tables to which I have bellied up: “Six, easy, six.  Lumber number, two by four.  Corner red gets fed.”

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Posted: 14 February 2010 03:20 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
ChumpChange
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A small point of order.  Some jurisdictions—Atlantic City is the one with which I am familiar—have a “protect us from ourselves” law that does not allow casinos to book flat pass line bets after the point is established.

I like to put bet an extra $1-$4 on the 6 or 8 passline bet because I’m too lazy to add $5 as odds. I guess Atlantic City is having none of that.

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Posted: 14 February 2010 10:15 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
lucky4688
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ChumpChange,


I’m not so sure i understand what exactly you are doing with the 1-4 dollars??  Are you adding 1-4 dollars to your flat bet instead of as odds?

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Posted: 14 February 2010 11:44 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
ChumpChange
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I like to use a progression/regression of odds with put bet on points of 6 or 8. I’ll bet $6 on the PL, point is 6, add $5 odds and $1 put. If I win, the odds & put bet pay $7. So next time my point is 6 or 8, I’ll bet $5 odds & $2 put. If I win, next time will be $5 odds & $3 put; if I lose, I regress down to $5 odds & $1 odds. The tables where I play don’t have a Big 6 or 8, even if they did they’d be subject to a table minimum. These little <$5 put bets allow me to run an odds/put progression/regression that I prefer.

I’m unconcerned with goatcabin’s good sense to avoid “breakage” in bets in my case.

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Posted: 30 April 2010 11:33 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
passthedice
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The Pass Line Bet

While I think this is one bet that you never want to make unless you have the dice, all the books say it’s a good bet.

My first thing against the bet is it pays even money, I never want to be paid even money on any bet I make. The second thing is it’s a contract bet that once made you can not remove it and why would that be if it’s such a good bet for you? If it was a great bet for you don’t you think the casinos would let you pull it down?

Think about it this way. That the two dice create 36 possible outcomes, but since you add the two numbers together, you get only eleven possible sums, 2 through 12, distributed like this
2, 12 can be only rolled one way each
3, 11 can be rolled two ways each
4, 10 can be rolled three ways each
5, 9 can be rolled four ways each
6, 8 can be rolled five ways each
7 can be rolled six ways each
The casinos know that the longer the dice roll the bigger their chance of winning gets. So you can not call you bet off!

I look at it this way, say there has been no 6’s rolled on the table, but everybody is making the 10. The shooter just rolled the 6 to establish the point of 6. If I had just a pass-line bet I would make only even money on that bet.

But if I took the same bet and place it on the 10 I would make $4 if the shooter hit the point of 10. I could leave the bet up for four or five rolls of the dice and then call it off if I wanted too!

Most shooter will never get pass 7 rolls of the dice there are more ways to make the seven, and that is what the game is based on!

The longer you leave you bets up for the bigger chance you have of losing.

Think about how many ways you can lose your bet on the come-out roll.

2, 12 can be only rolled one way each and then the 3 can be rolled two ways so you also have four ways of losing on the come out roll when you have a pass-line bet.
On the other hand you have a 9 to 4 chance of winning on the come-out roll remember the 11 can be rolled two ways plus the 6 ways for you to win with the 7.

Now you are saying look here stupid you just told me I had 9 ways of winning on the come out roll, I am betting on the pass-line! But did you forget about the other 28 numbers that can be rolled on the come out roll. Now you odds don’t look to good do they?
After one of the other points is established your odds get worst with every roll of the dice, and you can’t call off that pass-line bet or take it down.

Think about one other thing if you do not have a pass-line bet, when you have a shooter that is shooting from the other end of the table they will not hit your chips with the dice.

So take that pass-line bet and place it on a place bet and after 4 rolls of the dice you can turn it off or take it down, the seven is coming!

If I am wrong on my way of thinking please correct me!

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Posted: 30 April 2010 12:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
goatcabin
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passthedice - 30 April 2010 11:33 AM

The Pass Line Bet

While I think this is one bet that you never want to make unless you have the dice, all the books say it’s a good bet.

My first thing against the bet is it pays even money, I never want to be paid even money on any bet I make.

Well, why not take odds; they pay better than place bets for the same number.

passthedice - 30 April 2010 11:33 AM

The second thing is it’s a contract bet that once made you can not remove it and why would that be if it’s such a good bet for you? If it was a great bet for you don’t you think the casinos would let you pull it down?

Think about it this way. That the two dice create 36 possible outcomes, but since you add the two numbers together, you get only eleven possible sums, 2 through 12, distributed like this
2, 12 can be only rolled one way each
3, 11 can be rolled two ways each
4, 10 can be rolled three ways each
5, 9 can be rolled four ways each
6, 8 can be rolled five ways each
7 can be rolled seven ways each
The casinos know that the longer the dice roll the bigger their chance of winning gets. So you can not call you bet off!

There is a very simple reason you cannot call the pass bet off: on the comeout roll, the pass bet has eight (not nine, as you say below) ways to win, just four ways to lose. After a point has been established, the odds shift toward the house. So, there is no way they are going to let a player have only the part of the bet where he/she has an advantage, nor should they.

OTOH, the don’t bets have a big house advantage on the comeout, but shift to a player advantage after a point. The house WILL let you pull that bet down, of course.

passthedice - 30 April 2010 11:33 AM

I look at it this way, say there has been no 6’s rolled on the table, but everybody is making the 10. The shooter just rolled the 6 to establish the point of 6. If I had just a pass-line bet I would make only even money on that bet.

But if I took the same bet and place it on the 10 I would make $4 if the shooter hit the point of 10. I could leave the bet up for four or five rolls of the dice and then call it off if I wanted too!

Most shooter will never get pass 7 rolls of the dice there are more ways to make the seven, and that is what the game is based on!

The longer you leave you bets up for the bigger chance you have of losing.

Of course, the seven kills all the place bets, too, doesn’t it?
Actually, the length of time bets stay up has nothing to do with their chances of winning/losing. The relative probabilities of point numbers and the seven never change.

passthedice - 30 April 2010 11:33 AM

Think about how many ways you can lose your bet on the come-out roll.

2, 12 can be only rolled one way each and then the 3 can be rolled two ways so you also have four ways of losing on the come out roll when you have a pass-line bet.
On the other hand you have a 9 to 4 chance of winning on the come-out roll remember the 11 can be rolled two ways plus the 7 ways for you to win with the 7.

Now you are saying look here stupid you just told me I had 9 ways of winning on the come out roll, I am betting on the pass-line! But did you forget about the other 27 numbers that can be rolled on the come out roll. Now you odds don’t look to good do they?
After one of the other points is established your odds get worst with every roll of the dice, and you can’t call off that pass-line bet or take it down.

Well, as I said, it’s 8 ways to win on the comeout. I think everyone here knows that all the line bets have two parts; the player has the advantage on the comeout for pass/come, and the house for the DP/DC, then the advantages reverse.

Once again, your odds do not get worse with every roll of the dice. If the point is six, you always have five ways to roll it, six ways to roll the seven.

BTW, the average number of rolls for a line decision is 3.375, the average number of rolls for a hand 8.52; however, there is a huge range in the length of hands. I ran a large simulation of 65,535 hands a few years ago. The average value, as we would expect, was 8.52 rolls, but the most frequently occurring value was 3 (7805 hands) and the median was 6 (the median is the value with half the values above, half below). Fully 33% of the hands were four rolls or fewer.

passthedice - 30 April 2010 11:33 AM

Think about one other thing if you do not have a pass-line bet, when you have a shooter that is shooting from the other end of the table they will not hit your chips with the dice.

So take that pass-line bet and place it on a place bet and after 4 rolls of the dice you can turn it off or take it down, the seven is coming!

If I am wrong on my way of thinking please correct me!

I think you are wrong. The seven does not become more likely, any more than does the six. However, if you believe it does, then the ability to take bets down or call them off may be important to you. To me, it’s totally irrelevant.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

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Posted: 03 May 2010 05:50 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
Sancho Panza
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“7 can be rolled seven ways each”
—————

On behalf of all us inveterate don’t bettors, one has to ask, “Where, pray tell, is such a holy grail?”

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Posted: 30 July 2010 12:02 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
basicstrategy777
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The casino will never allow you to change a bet if by doing so it changes their position from having the advantage to one of
putting them at a disadvantage.

They will allow you to change your bet if you are giving up a position of advantage.

I call it the Hammer Rule…....whomever ( you or the casino) has the Hammer ( the advantagious position) will have the final say if you can change your bet.

So think about a particular bet you have on the table and try to figure out who has the advantage. Once you have figured that out you will know the answer to the question…....can I change my bet .


777

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