Can anyone run a simulation on my strategy

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by PatrickC, Sep 10, 2021.

  1. PatrickC, Sep 10, 2021

    PatrickC

    PatrickC Member

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    Hi everyone, been reading for a long time but never had anything to contribute until now, I've made an account to share my strategy but also request some help.

    I have a cheap chromebook and cannot run wincraps or other simulators, so I'm having trouble working out if this strategy would work better if slightly modified. As of now I know it works well in my sessions, but would like to run a simulation to see how it works in the big picture, or how certain changes could improve results.

    It is a grinding strategy (though less grindy than iron cross) , that can be used on random rollers with decent results, but I bet more when I have the dice and can hopefully influence them. As I explain it I will imagine a 5$ minimum for simplicity, but it can of course be scaled up.

    On the come out roll place one unit on the don't pass , when a point is established place the point and also place the 6 and 8. If the point is 6 or 8, only place 6 and 8. On a random roller I will collect my profits and simply pull my bets after 3-5 rolls, on myself I will press a number when it hits. Thats it. You will profit on your placed numbers, and the dont pass will act as a hedge if a 7 rolls.

    The main risk of this strategy is all on the come out roll, I've had my bankroll take a hit when a 7 rolls time after time on the comeout without a point being established. I have been wondering how hedging the comout roll with an any seven bet could improve the strategy. That is what got me started looking for a simulator.

    Thanks for your input, Patrick
     
    #1
  2. basicstrategy777, Sep 10, 2021

    basicstrategy777

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    i guess the any 7 would act as a hedge.....or a 3 way 7 ....or a dc bet already on the layout........ or a lay bet......or a due-e-don't.........the 11 probably doesn't bother you that much.............i guess there are pluses and minuses...........good luck to you.......there are some sharp cookies here that can probably help you.

    777
     
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  3. Night Attack, Sep 10, 2021

    Night Attack

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    Welcome to the forum PatrickC
     
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  4. yacraps, Sep 10, 2021

    yacraps

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  5. Mssthis1, Sep 11, 2021

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    If you hedge your $5 comeout with an any seven, your expected loss per comeout roll goes from 2 cents, up to 18.67 cents, Numbers are rounded and not exact but you get the drift.

    You need to look at the game as a whole instead of individual rolls since you bet is a favorite once you survive the comeout rolls.

    If a few comeout losers hurt your bankroll that much, perhaps you don't have enough bankroll to be playing. The casinos biggest advantage is they have the bank to survive normal varience while the average player doesn't.
     
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  6. basicstrategy777, Sep 11, 2021

    basicstrategy777

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    any 7 is the worst bet, edge wise, 16.7%, on the table.

    777
     
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Sep 11, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Random rollers eh? How are these so-called's identified, are they ones wearing sc-RR badges or the one's wearing either sc-DI or Di badges?

    Note: An interesting question there, don't you think?
     
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    Last edited: Sep 11, 2021
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  8. KokomoJoe4, Sep 11, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

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    How's the 6 & 8 strategy working out for you? They might be , after all, a couple of the most likely numbers seen or even heard, but, according to SR (supperrick), not always.
     
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  9. KokomoJoe4, Sep 11, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    What do you do when the so-called RR is NOT wearing a badge, or when the sc-RR is wearing attire similar to the now Miss Planck?

    Yes, you can probably but not definitely afford to press when a DI is shooting.
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Sep 11, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

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    Listen carefully, but not totally. There is NO risk when a sc-DI xxxxxxx I MEAN A DI is shooting.

    I don't have a whole lot more to say, I think.
     
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  11. twodicebilly, Sep 13, 2021

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    KOKO


    and Superrick would be correct, since craps is played by most players in the very short run, betting
    the 6 & 8 may be the worst bets you can make, betting hi/low may have been the best bet, laying
    the 4 may have been the best bet, following that blond to her room may have been better than any bet,
    there again to, following the blond may have been a very expensive hedge against losing on the craps
    table.

    here is the only think i know for sure, these are in my freezer from this weekend.

    IMG_9840.JPG


    tdb
     
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  12. lone irish digit, Sep 13, 2021

    lone irish digit

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    This is Koko

    You may or may not have made a big mistake with those perch

     
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  13. basicstrategy777, Sep 13, 2021

    basicstrategy777

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    nice size perch.

    777
     
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  14. KokomoJoe4, Sep 13, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I love perch! (I'm somewhat certain)
     
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  15. KokomoJoe4, Sep 13, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

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    LID,

    You might be aware (forget what that is in either of our favorite "Axis" (no not THAT Axis) languages (yes Deutch or Italiano you dimwit (I mean Dumbkof{ I think} baron (yes lowercase here)} ? (the parenthesees]}) that that (but not 3 or 4 that's) idiot Georgie should probably:

    (a) not water down the drinks (especially scotch) with ice,
    (b) not charge any of the dancer half a C-note AND a blowjob to get into the bigshot room, or
    (c) bring a singing fish into the executive lounge (the one that is located either in Satriale's or the one that is a component part of the Bada Bing (make that the Bing).

    Do we make ourselves clear?

    Noye (I mean something else that starts with an A): none.
     
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  16. lone irish digit, Sep 13, 2021

    lone irish digit

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    This is Barney

    About as clear as Tracee marvelous set of braces in this iconic scene


     
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  17. KokomoJoe4, Sep 13, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Good one, my s0-called (I mean so-called, after all, you're not the baron {I think}) good friend, (comma [ I think], good one.
     
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  18. yacraps, Sep 14, 2021

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    looking good...you're gonna need to make room in the freezer for them beautiful perch....you can send me all the Walleye in your freezer to me to make room :)
     
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  19. twodicebilly, Sep 14, 2021

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    yacraps


    [​IMG]


    Walleyes for perch.......that is a terrible question to ponder ??

    TDB
     
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  20. KokomoJoe4, Sep 14, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

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    While you're at it TDB, ponder this - I (and Grizzoola, but not bobdfarmer) am/are still waiting to see (or hear or read) your explanation of the s0-called GTC method of practicing out of the 3/5:5/3 HW set in order to ascertain the extent to which you are keeping the dice on-axis (I might mean s0-called on-axis).

    IF you were to be so kind (like Syl, but more-so like Paulie) as to do so, bobdfarmer, Grizzoola and I will be able to: (1) follow along with your explanation, (2) see (I do not mean C here) the extent to which we feel that this s0-called method is accurate, and then (3) go from there.


    anmerkung (think noye [or think note]): When going, as described above at 3, (but not at [3][1]), be certain that you avoid going to Satriale's at the time when Christopher is "doing" some crack with the first guy ever he is about to "do" just before he "does" him (who incidently MIGHT be Czechoslovakian {this guy who gets "done" I mean [in case you were unable to follow my almost perfectly clear explanation, capish?}}

    Also avoid going on the $$ pickup with Paulie and Chris, you know, the pickup done on behalf of Sylvio, who said he was sick and couldn't do it himself. The SOB was lying there, he was NOT ill, he was banging Tracee at the time --> (I'm nearly certain (but not positive)). Continuing with story (you & I both hope AND think ); Keep your fucking hands off the Russian guy who is to give you Sylvio's money.

    If you fuck with him, he is a killer, and will likely kick the shit out of you (but not out of bobd). Continuing (I think (but you hope, I hope)) AGAIN I SAY, do not mess with this Russian (Svetlana might be aware also). Why?, you ask?

    Because that guy killed a hell of a lot of Czechoslovakians (Paulie and I both think) when in hand to hand combat with said Czechoslovakians.

    The usually witty 'T 'was saying something about Chechnyian rebels, as if he knew what the hell he was talking about. He should learn that Paulie is no dummy, except for his approach to keeping dice on-axis. Pssssst, this means he is a 44.4 guy.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 14, 2021